EGoM meeting on diesel prices in focus

A meeting of the ministerial panel on diesel prices, progress of the monsoon rains and data on industrial production will be on investors' radar next week. A decision on raising diesel price is likely to be taken by the Empowered Group of Minister (EGoM) headed by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday, 9 June 2011. If the government hikes diesel prices it will lead to increase in inflationary pressures -- diesel is a key transportation fuel in India.



Investors will closely watch macroeconomic data in the near term, which could provide a cue on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) likely monetary policy stance at its mid-quarter policy review on 16 June 2011. The government unveils data on industrial production for April 2011 on Friday, 10 June 2011. The government releases data on headline inflation for May 2011 on 14 June 2011.

Investors will continue to watch the progress of the annual monsoon rains. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the southwest monsoon 2011 to be 98% (normal) of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus/minus 5%. IMD has indicated that there is very low probability for the season rainfall to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) or excess (above 110% of LPA).

Good rains would help ease food inflation and boost rural income. Rainfall that comes within 96% to 104% of the long-term average is considered a normal monsoon season, but this alone doesn't guarantee a good crop. The timing and spread of the rains are equally important. The quantity and geographical spread of rainfall during the monsoon season is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which lacks irrigation facilities on more than half its farm land. Monsoon rains usually enter India's mainland through the southern state of Kerala in the first week of June, gradually progressing to cover most of central and northern India by July, before retreating in September.