High crude oil prices may cap upside

The near term major trigger for the market is Q4 March 2011 results, with IT bellwether Infosys kickstarting the result season on 15 April 2011. Investors will scrutinize post-result management commentary to gauge outlook on earnings at a time when rising salaries, raw materials prices and interest rates are pressurizing profit margins of India Inc.



Due to merger of settlements on account of bank holiday for Gudi Padwa festival on Monday, 4 April 2011, shares purchased on Monday, 4 April 2011 should not be sold on Tuesday 5 April 2011, brokers have advised clients.

Power equipment maker Bharat Heavy Electricals (Bhel) announces its flash year ended March 2011 (FY 2011) results on Monday, 4 April 2011. Chemfab Alkalis announces year ended March 2011 (FY 2011) results on Tuesday, 5 April 2011. Goa Carbon announces FY 2011 results on the next day and GM Breweries announces its annual results on Thursday, 7 April 2011

High crude oil prices remain a major cause of concern on the macroeconomic front. US crude futures were trading up 30 cents or 0.28% at 107.02 a barrel on Friday, 1 April 2011 as concern the Libyan conflict will prolong production cuts countered signs of rising supplies in the US, the world's largest crude consumer. India imports majority of its crude oil requirements and a surge in crude oil prices to 2-1/2-year highs recently has sparked inflation and interest rates worries. High oil prices have also raised concerns about higher oil subsidy bill for the government and its negative impact on the government's fiscal position.

The data March 2011 HSBC Markit Business Activity Index, which indicates the health of the services sector is likely to be announced next week. The HSBC Markit Business Activity Index based on a survey of around 400 companies, rose to 60.2 in February 2011 from 58.1 in January 2011, staying above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction for the 22nd consecutive month.

On the political front, assembly elections for the first phase will be held in Assam on Monday, 4 April 2011. The second and last phase will take place on 11 April 2011. Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala will be held on 13 April 2011 while West Bengal will vote for 6 days starting 18 April 2011. Counting for all the five states will take place on 13 May 2011.