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"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it." - Warren Buffett.

It has been a topsy-turvy week so far, with the key stock indices oscillating in a tight range amid tepid volumes. Today, we expect a slightly lower start on the back of fresh declines in key global markets and indecisive sentiment on Wall Street.



The near-term outlook is uncertain given the global geopolitical risks and the flare-up in crude oil. The market appears to be in a limbo and could stay that way till there is material relief in the ongoing political turmoil in the Middle-East.

The US markets closed flat in a quiet session. Stock indices in Europe closed down at the end of a choppy session. Asian markets are mostly in the red. Japanese shares are leading the fall in the region after its GDP shrank more than estimated in the last quarter.

Brent and Nymex crude oil futures remain elevated amid relentless fighting in Libya and lingering worries over supplies from that region. Libyan oil output is reportedly down by two thirds. Copper closed at an 11-week low while gold rose.

Watch out for the US trade data and the Bank of England’s policy meeting. For India, the key economic statistics to watch out for will be the IIP data (March 11), inflation figures (March 14) and the mid-quarter RBI review (March 17).

A close below 5490 could reverse the short term uptrend. The short-term trading range for the Nifty appears to be between 5400 and 5700. The Nifty could well take out the 200 DMA in the next few days, provided there is no further bad news from the overseas markets. In the worst case scenario, the Nifty might re-test its recent intermediate bottom near 5200 in case the sentiment deteriorates. On the way up, it may go as high as 5800.

Equity shares of Acropetal Technologies Ltd. will list today. Shares of Sudar Garments Ltd will list on March 11. The IPO of Lovable Lingerie has received a fairly lukewarm response. The QIB portion closes today.

Indian Terrain Fashions Ltd. to list on March 11 pursuant to a Scheme of Arrangement.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs 1.31bn in the cash segment on Wednesday, according to the provisional NSE data. The domestic institutional institutions were net buyers at Rs 1.13bn on the same day. FIIs were net sellers of ~Rs 3bn in the F&O segment. The foreign funds were net buyers at Rs 3.67bn in the cash segment on Tuesday, as per final SEBI data. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs 525mn in the cash segment on the same day.