Monsoon may extend well into next month

Japanese researchers have maintained the outlook for prevailing strong La Nina conditions to reach a peak during the following winter.

The La Nina would be long-lasting and could persist until early 2012, according to Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist at the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at Tokyo's Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC).




October rains

RIGC is latter-day incarnation of the erstwhile Frontier Research Center for Global Change under the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Jamstec).

Giving a month-wise break-up for expected rainfall in India, the RIGC said that the country as a whole, except extreme Southwest Coast, could witness an ‘extended monsoon' into October marked by above normal precipitation.

Extended outlook by the RIGC also would seem to suggest wet weather for the National Capital Region going into October, posing a threat to the smooth conduct of the impending Commonwealth Games.

The La Nina would bring above normal rains to Eastern Asia, Indonesia, northern parts of South America, Australia, besides India, during the autumn.

Cooler winter

The winter would see cooler than normal temperatures for most parts of India, Dr Jing-Jia informed Business Line.

Surface air temperature over many parts of the globe would be below normal. Exceptions could likely be the Northern Eurasian continent, Korea-Japan and Southeastern parts of North America.

South Africa, Australia, and Northeastern Brazil would have a cooler and flooding austral (southern hemisphere) summer during this period.

October rains are shown to be particularly heavier over the Southeast Coast and adjoining Interior Peninsula, parts of Central India and East India.

Even Northwest India could see slightly above normal precipitation (brought about mainly by western disturbances).

The month of November could, however, see a recess over North and Northwest India.