IMD revises monsoon forecast to 102% of LPA

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2010 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 102% of long period average (LPA) with a model error of ±4%.



The first stage forecast for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country was issued on April 23. At that time, the weather office had said that monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89cm.

Rainfall over the country as a whole in July is likely to be 98% of LPA and that in August is likely to be 101% of LPA both with a model error of ± 9%. Over the four broad geographical regions of the country, rainfall for the 2010 Southwest Monsoon Season is likely to be 102% of LPA over North-West India, 103% of LPA over North-East India, 99% of LPA over Central India and 102% of LPA over South Peninsula, all with a model error of ± 8 %.