Weekly Newsletter - Dec 31 2009

The market has had quite a rollercoaster ride in the last couple of years. After hitting all-time highs in January 2008, the market came crashing down like a pack of cards in the wake of the western financial storm and the subsequent economic downturn. The Sensex lost more than 50% as FIIs pulled out US$13bn. The meltdown continued into the initial months of 2009 as well with no signs of stability in the western banking sector. The key indices touched new lows in early March before rebounding like a phoenix bird as economic activities started turning around. UPA's convincing win in election added fuel to the fire, with the market being frozen in upper circuit. The dull Budget did play spoilsport for a brief period but the indices bounced back to scale new peaks for the year in October. Since then, it was a topsy turvy journey which culminated in an extremely insipid December. Still, the undertone was strong enough to enable the indices to make new highs.

The new year will start differently for India, as exchanges will kick off trading at 9 am from Jan. 4. Things will be a little quiet to start with, as market players return from a long New Year weekend. In any case, the market will await fresh catalysts to push ahead. Also, concerns are building up on the inflation side, with food inflation shooting through the roof. Commodity prices have also started to inch higher. So, a reversal in easy money policy is imminent. Earnings will also be closely followed and scrutinized for hints on future prospects for India Inc. Valuations though not cheap, does leave some more head room as India is a long-term growth story. Fund flows may not match this year's performance, but should still cross double-digits. Budget and other policy measures from the UPA will also play a key role in determining the direction of the market. Global factors to keep an eye on will be Fed action and execution of 'exit' strategies.