All that really belongs to us is time; even he who has nothing else has that.
The time has come for a spectacular year to draw to a close. Timing the start of the market has been the latest debate and time in the market is going to get longer after today. We hope 2010 brings in even better gains though that may seem asking for too much. World equities have had a phenomenal rally from bear market troughs. Much will depend on how the global economic recovery progresses. Among the events to watch out for will be the Fed’s policy actions and its fallout on financial markets, particularly the dollar. RBI moves on CRR and/or interest rates should come as no surprise whenever it happens.
Though the Nifty has made a new high for 2009, the market has been pretty much in a holiday mood this month. We expect a dull start amid subdued global markets. Volatility will prevail due to the F&O expiry. The Nifty is likely to face resistance at 5180-5200. A decisive close above 5200 could see the Nifty shooting to 5300-5650. Support is placed at 5100 and below that at 5000. Take all the rest you can during this long weekend. We continue to advocate caution on small-cap and mid-cap stocks.
Key events that will shape the future for the Indian markets in the initial months of 2010 will be quarterly earnings, trend in inflation, RBI's policy moves and the Union Budget. Possible triggers could come from the Government's positive movement on certain policy measures such as the GST, the new Direct Tax Code and the long-pending reforms in a few sectors like insurance, pension, banking, etc. The timing and nature of the 'EXIT' from the fiscal stimulus may pose some challenges for policymakers. Later on in the year, monsoon will be a crucial factor.
FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Wednesday at Rs1.13bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net buyers of Rs691.1mn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs2.78bn. As per the SEBI figures, FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.85bn in the cash segment on Tuesday.
US stocks ended a choppy session barely higher on Wednesday, with the Dow and Nasdaq eking out fresh 2009 highs, as investors mulled a stronger dollar and opted to play it cautious at the end of a tumultuous year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3 points, ending at the highest point since Oct. 1, 2008. The S&P 500 index ended just above the unchanged line, closing just shy of 15-month highs hit two days ago. The Nasdaq rose by 3 points, ending at the highest point since Oct. 3, 2008.
A stronger dollar put some pressure on the market, dragging on commodity prices and stocks, and pulling down shares of companies that do a lot of business overseas. After sliding for most of the year versus the euro and yen, the dollar has gained over the last few weeks.
Trading volume has been low this week, with many market pros and individual investors on vacation. Lighter trading volume can cause increased volatility. All US financial markets are closed on Friday for the New Year's Day holiday.
Year-to-date, the Dow has risen 20%, the S&P 500 has climbed almost 25% and the Nasdaq has gained 45%, as of Tuesday's close. All three indexes have posted more substantial gains since falling to multi-year lows on March 9 amid the height of the financial crisis.
US stock gains next year could be a lot milder, analysts say, as the government stimulus fades and a sluggish US economy struggles to create jobs. Consumer spending is likely to stay weak, the dollar could firm up and the Federal Reserve is expected to begin raising interest rates in the second half of 2010.
In the day's economic news, the Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 60 in December from 56.1 previously. The improvement was a surprise, with economists expecting it to drop to 55.1.
Troubled auto and mortgage financing firm GMAC Financial Services is expected to receive a third round of bailout funds, according to a published report. GMAC is expected to get an additional $3.8 billion on top of the $13.5 billion it has already received since Dec. 2008.
COMEX gold for February delivery fell $5.60 to settle at $1,092.50 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce earlier this month.
US light crude oil for February delivery rose 41 cents to settle at $79.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.79% from 3.80% late on Tuesday.
European stocks declined, pulling back after setting 14-month highs in the previous session, with banks posting big declines. Swiss pharmaceutical company Basilea dropped sharply following a setback on a key drug.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 0.4% to close at 253.16, but the pan-European index came off lows after Wall Street opened in a narrow range. Tuesday marked the index's highest close since October 2008.
Among the main country indexes, the German DAX 30 index closed down 0.9% at 5,957.43 in a shortened trading session. The German market will remain closed on Thursday. It notched up a 23.8% rise over the course of the 2009 - its best year since 2005. Read about the German market's 2009 performance.
The French CAC 40 index dipped 0.6% to end at 3,935.50, and the UK's FTSE 100 index shed 0.7% to finish at 5,397.86.
Main Indian stock indices closed in the red on Wednesday even as uncertainty prevails on the issue of extending the trading hours beginning January 4. The market continued to be lackluster with only a day to go in the year 2009 and due to anxiety about the prospects for equities in 2010.
Thursday's F&O expiry ensured that there was enough volatility as traders pondered over possible strategies to adopt ahead of another long weekend. What's more, Asian markets were pretty mixed and European stocks declined from multi-month highs.
The key indices opened higher, then turned choppy, only to slide to the day's low. From then on they successfully managed to come back into the positive zone before turning flat. In the end, the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty ended slightly down.
The Sensex finished at 17,343.82, down 58 points or 0.33% over the previous close. Earlier, it touched a high of 17,440 and a low of 17,322 after opening at 17,402. The Nifty shut shop at 5169, down 19 points or 0.36% from the last close. The Nifty touched a high of 5197 and a low of 5160 after opening at 5188.
Meanwhile, the small-cap and mid-cap counters extended gains from Tuesday. The BSE Small-Cap index and BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1.1% and 0.3% respectively.
Off the BSE sectoral indices, Consumer Durables and Real Estate indices posted modest gains. Select IT, Auto and Banking shares also ended higher. Notable losers included FMCG, Metals, Capital Goods, Oil & Gas and Pharma.
The big losers within the Sensex were ITC, Hero Honda, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Tata Steel, L&T and ONGC. The list of winners included Reliance Infra, ACC and Grasim.
Outside the key stock indices, the top losers were BL Kashyap, Great Offshore, Max India, 3i Infotech, PTC India, Time Technoplast, Abbott India, Zandu Pharma, GTL Infra and Jindal Steel.
Essar Shipping, Gammon Infra, HOEC, Marksans Pharma, TVS Motor, Jyoti Structures, JM Financial, Heidelberg Cement, Jagran Prakashan, Balaji Tele, Shiv-Vani Oil and Assam Co. were among the top gainers outside the main indices.
Shares of Gammon India and Gammon Infra rose a day after the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) gave a clean chit to Gammon India and Hyundai Engineering in relation to the collapse of a bridge in Kota (Rajasthan) over the Chambal River which killed 30 people.
Gammon India closed at Rs226 on the BSE, almost unchanged over the previous close. It toughed a high of Rs236 and a low of Rs225 after opening at Rs226. On Tuesday, Gammon India's stock closed at Rs225 on the BSE, down Rs14.50 or 6%. Gammon Infra was up 11.6% at Rs22.65.
Shares of Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) rose on Wednesday after a senior company official said that the public sector company plans to acquire three new container ships in 2010 and has set aside US$200-225mn to fund these purchases.
SCI ended at Rs147 on the BSE, up Rs1.80 or 1.2% over the previous close. It toughed a high of Rs150 and a low of Rs146 after opening at Rs149.
Marksans Pharma Ltd. shares gained as much as 10% in Mumbai trading after the company's board said that it will seek approval from the shareholders to raise as much as US$125mn in capital and sell or lease its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) plant in Pune.
The stock finished at Rs5.78 on the BSE, up Re0.52 over the previous close. Traded volume on the counter shot up to 17.43 lakh shares.
Shares of Panacea Biotech Ltd., the world’s biggest maker of the polio vaccine, shot up in Mumbai trading after saying that it plans to buy back its shares. The New Delhi-based company’s board will consider a stock buyback plan today.
The stock was locked in 5% upper circuit limit at Rs211.55 on the BSE, up Rs10 over the previous close. It touched a low of Rs207 after opening circuit up at Rs211.55. Traded volume on the counter stood at 1,44,910 shares.
Four Soft Ltd. rose by its 5% daily upper limit to close at Rs28.20. Canada’s Sherritt International Corp. selected Four Soft’s software for installation at multiple locations.