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Monday, December 07, 2009

Quest for Brigh-test!


"To be on a quest is nothing more or less than to become an asker of questions."

Dhoni’s boys have triumphed in their quest for the pinnacle of Test Cricket. The Indian stock market is struggling to make new highs. Dhoni & Co. will find that life at the Top is not as easy as it appears. The real test of their character begins now. The same applies to the stock market. After having rebounded in a spectacular fashion from March lows, the market is finding it a bit tough to advance further.

The market is in a consolidation phase and the same is healthy. The key indices are likely to remain sideways in a range. The Nifty will face resistance around 5180-5200. It has to close above this level with good volumes for a few days to provide fresh impetus to the bulls. Don't get carried way though if at all the Nifty manages to cross 5200, as it might struggle to surpass 5300 and is likely to hit a wall near 5360.

Non-index counters may see some action. High beta is avoidable after a runaway rally. Defensive plays like IT, FMCG and Pharma would be safer. Local consumption driven themes like Retail and Hotels could turn out to be good bets.

A slew of IPOs are lined up over the next few days and weeks. JSW Energy issues opens today. Godrej Properties IPO will open on Dec. 9.

RIL bonus shares will hit the markets today. Nestle India Board will consider acquisition of Speciality Foods' nutrition business today.

The much-hyped Copenhagen Summit on climate change opens today. The United Nations sponsored conference will run until December 18. The world’s political leaders are facing the difficult task of trying to reach an agreement on a new global climate treaty.

FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Friday at Rs1.98bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net sellers of Rs566.4mn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs7.86bn. FIIs were net buyers of Rs4.28bn in the cash segment on Thursday. FIIs' net investments in Indian stocks this year have crossed $15.9bn. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs1.65bn in the cash segment on Thursday.

US stocks closed higher on Friday after a government report showed a marked improvement in the labour market, stoking hopes that the world's largest economy could recover from recession earlier than expected.

Employers in the US cut the fewest jobs in November since the recession began and the jobless rate fell. Separately, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said that the job market may improve further as economic growth strengthens.

A strong dollar sent gold prices tumbling and also hit commodities and stocks that benefit from a weaker greenback. Bond prices slumped, boosting the corresponding yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 23 points, or 0.2%, to close at 10388.90 after hitting a 14-month high of 10,516.70 in the morning. The S&P 500 index gained 6 points or 0.6%, at 1,105.98. The Nasdaq Composite index advanced 21 points, or 1%, to 2,194.35.

All the three US indexes gained last week.

US stocks rallied across the board in the first two hours after the open, leaving the Dow and S&P 500 at fresh 14-month highs and the Nasdaq just short of one. But the advance lost some steam later in the day amid concerns that While the labor market is healing, job growth is not expected to pick up until later next year.

Employers cut 11,000 jobs from their payrolls in November, the Labor Department reported. It was the smallest number of job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007. Economists were looking for employers to cut 125,000 jobs in the month. Job losses in September and October were also revised lower by a total of 159,000.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, fell to 10% from 10.2% in October. It was the biggest one-month decline in more than three years. Economists thought the unemployment rate would hold steady at 10.2%.

Some of the improvement in the unemployment rate in November was attributable to job seekers giving up and dropping out of the market entirely. The report showed 15.4 million Americans are out of work and seeking jobs. Meanwhile, another 6 million have given up looking and another 9.2 million have only found part-time work when they want full-time work.

Geithner said that the US economy is gradually growing and that chances are high the unemployment rate will decline next year.

In the day's another economic report, factory orders rose 0.6% in October after climbing 1.5% in the previous month. Economists had forecast no change.

Bank of America gained 3.3%. The biggest US bank raised US$19.3 billion selling securities for US$15 each in the biggest sale of stock or preferred shares by a US public company since at least 2000.

Staffing companies advanced following the government’s employment report. Monster Worldwide surged 12%, the most since Aug. 7. Robert Half International Inc. jumped 11%.

Chemical company DuPont slumped 7% after it said its seed business will delay the release of several products.

COMEX gold for February delivery fell US$48.80 to settle at US$1,169.50 an ounce after ending the previous session at a record high of US$1,218.30 an ounce. Dollar-traded gold tumbled as the dollar firmed up.

The dollar gained versus the euro and yen. The stronger dollar caused dollar-traded oil to give up most of its morning gains. The Dollar Index, a gauge of the currency against six major trading partners, jumped 1.6%.

US light crude oil for January delivery fell 99 cents to settle at US$75.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.47% from 3.37% late on Thursday.

Odds that the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates by its June meeting rose to 55% from 43% on Thursday, according to Fed funds futures trading.

Across the Atlantic, European shares staged a sharp turnaround after data painted a much better-than-expected picture of the US economy. After trading lower though much of the session, the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 1.1% to 249.05, taking weekly gains to 2.7%.

Germany's DAX index advanced 0.8% to 5,817.65 and the French CAC-40 index rose 1.3% to 3,846.62. The UK's FTSE 100 index was up just 0.2% at 5,322.36.

Indian markets wiped out last week’s decline as worries regarding Dubai's debt problems eased. Bulls cheered stronger than anticipated GDP growth data, monthly auto sales and recovery across the global markets also helped Indian markets stage a sharp bounce back. The BSE benchmark Sensex added 2.8% to close at 17,102 and NSE Nifty added 3.4% to close at 5,109.

On Friday, The BSE Sensex slipped 84 points to end at 17,101 after touching a high of 17,292 and a low of 17,033. The index opened at 17,182 against the previous close of 16,185. The NSE Nifty was down 23 points to shut shop at 5,108.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan was up 0.4%, while Australia's S&P/ASX ended lower by 1.4%. Shanghai SE Composite in China gained 1.6% and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was down 0.3%.

In Europe, stocks were in the red. The FTSE in the UK was down 0.5%, The DAX in Germany was down 0.5% and the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.4%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Auto index was the top loser, shedding 1.5%, followed by the Banking index that was down 1.2% and the BSE Oil & Gas index was down 1%. Among the major gainers were, BSE Pharma index up 1.2%, BSE Teck index up 0.4% and BSE FMCG index up 0.4

The BSE Mid-Cap index slipped 0.2% and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.4%.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 19 stocks ended in the red and 11 ended in the positive terrain. Maruti, M&M, Hero Honda, ICICI Bank and ONGC ended in the negative terrain. Among the major gainers were Bharti Airtel, TCS, Reliance Infra, Hindalco and Tata Motors.

Outside the frontline indices, the big losers in the broader market were Jain Irrigation, Exide Ind, Jet Airways, Jubilant Org and United Spirits. On the other hand, gainers included Essar Oil, Biocon, Fortis Healthcare and MRPL.