Raining worries as India stares at a drought year stares

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) cut its seasonal monsoon forecast due to the weakening of the rainfall activity over the past few days. Rains in the June-September season would be 87% of the long-period average (LPA) compared with 93% forecast made on June 24, Ajit Tyagi, the Director General of the IMD was quoted as saying. Actual rains can be 4% more or less than the forecast, Tyagi said. The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during this year’s monsoon has so far been 29% below the Long Period Average (LPA). The weather bureau, which initially predicted normal rainfall for the season, has scaled down the forecast twice. Monsoon rains were 56% below normal over the week ended August 12, government data showed.

Rainfall has improved in the central soybean-growing area, and is likely to be close to normal in the next few days, but the total rainfall in August would now probably fall short of the reduced forecast of 90% of the average. Weather officials said low rainfall so far, the worst in at least five years, would hit winter-sown crops such as rapeseed and wheat, while a trade body said edible oils imports by the world's top buyer would surge as rains will hit output of oilseeds, particularly groundnut. The weak monsoon has already damaged the cane crop, and prospects of big purchases by the world's top sugar consumer has sent New York sugar prices to the highest level in nearly three decades.

In view of the grim situation on monsoon and rising prices of essential commodities, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh formed a high power Group of Ministers (GoM) for monitoring the situation on a day-to-day basis. The GoM, headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, will assess and monitor the situation arising out of deficient rainfall, take decisions on policy issues and approve new and innovative schemes for effective management of the situation. The Prime Minister is also likely to meet chief ministers on Monday to discuss the drought-like situation.