IMD downgrades monsoon forecast

In the second official estimate, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has downgraded monsoon forecast to 93% from 96%, with an error margin of 4%.

IMD's long range forecast for the 2009 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be Near Normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 96% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%. The Long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm.

IMD's long range forecast update for the 2009 south-west monsoon season (June to September) is that the rainfall is likely to be below normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the long period average with a model error of ±4%. The Long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm. Over the four broad geographical regions of the country, rainfall for the 2009 South-West Monsoon Season is likely to be 81% of its LPA over North-West India, 92% of its LPA over North-East India, 99% of its LPA over Central India and 93% of its LPA over South Peninsula, all with a model error of ± 8 %.