Small-cap, mid-cap indices extend gains

Key benchmark indices edged lower in what was a highly volatile trading session as investors resorted to profit taking after a recent sharp surge in share prices. The barometer index BSE Sensex fell below the psychological 11,000 mark. Volatility in banking stocks and index heavyweight Reliance Industries caused volatility in the key benchmark indices. The Sensex lost 43.59 points or 0.4%, off close to 230 points from the day's high and up close to 115 points from the day's low.

Volatility was high with investor focus on the March 2009 quarterly earnings and the Reserve bank of India's policy meeting on Tuesday, 21 April 2009, to review interest rates. With headline inflation at record low, analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates further to boost slowing economy. If not tomorrow, rate cuts may come later. Wholesale prices rose 0.18% in the week to 4 April 2009 from a year earlier after rising 0.26% the previous week, government data showed Thursday, 16 April 2009.

After opening on a firm note, the key benchmark indices slipped into the red for a brief period and they instantly bounced back on expectations of a further easing of the monetary policy by the central bank tomorrow, 21 April 2009. Market pared gains after hitting day's high in mid-morning trade. Volatility ruled the roost later. The market weakened in mid-afternoon trade with the Sensex falling below the 11,000 level. The market cut losses in late trade with the Sensex swinging near the 11,000 level.

The central bank has cut its main short-term lending rate or repo rate by 400 basis points to 5% in five moves since October 2008.

>The market sentiment remains firm due to sustained buying by foreign funds after heavy outflows in the first two months of calendar 2009. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers worth Rs 789.10 crore on 17 April 2009. FII inflow in April 2009 totaled Rs 4,277.20 crore (till 17 April 2009).

Meanwhile, a high-powered panel is reportedly thrashing out a mega economic stimulus package with a kitty of Rs 50,000 crore, which may be part of the first Budget of the next government at the centre to be presented before 25 June 2009. The government had earlier announced two fiscal packages in addition to the Indian central bank Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s monetary interventions to boost the economy. The earlier fiscal measures also liberalised various rules and regulations to increase liquidity and give a boost to spending.

A good news for the economy is forecast of a near normal monsoon by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on 17 April 2009. The IMD said rainfall in the June-September 2009 monsoon season was expected to be 96% of the long-term average. The outlook is among the nation's most widely watched indicator as monsoon rains are a major influence on output of key crops, economic activity and also affects sentiment in the country's financial markets.

European markets which opened after Indian market fell after six straight weeks of advances. France's CAC 40, UK's FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX fell by between 0.94% to 2.54%.

Angel Gurria, secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) today, 20 April 2009, said governments around the world may have to do more to pull the world economy out of its worst recession in eight decades. He said that trillions of dollars committed to stimulus packages are starting to work.

Asian stocks edged up today, holding near a six-month peak struck last week and withstanding an early bout of profit-taking as investors eyed a slew of corporate earnings reports around the world this week. Stocks rose in China and Hong Kong after China's Premier Wen Jiabao said over the weekend that the stimulus plan was producing 'better-than-expected' results. Key benchmark indices in China and Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan were up by between 0.19% and 2.14%. But South Korea's Straits Times index fell 1.14%.

Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could fall 109 points at the opening bell on Monday 20 April 2009. US index futures declined on concern reports this week may indicate that any economic recovery in the US, the world's biggest energy user, will be slow to develop. A US Commerce Department report on 24 April 2009 may show orders for durable goods such as refrigerators and computers fell for the fifth time in six months in March 2009. Bank of America reports earnings on Monday, 20 April 2009.

Meanwhile, a survey on Monday showed capital spending by US firms was improving and at the same time the pace of lay-offs was slowing slightly.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 43.59 points or 0.4% to 10,979.50. At the day's high of 11,209.66, the Sensex rose 186.57 points in mid-morning trade. At the day's low of 10,863.28, the Sensex fell 159.81 points in late trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 7.30 points or 0.22% to 3,377.10.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4,727 crore, lower than Rs 5,569.51 crore on Friday, 17 April 2009.

Nifty April 2009 futures were at 3385.35, at a premium of 8.25 points as compared to the spot closing of 3377.10. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 64,896.29 crore, much lower than Rs 75,438.49 crore on Friday, 17 April 2009.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1.62% to 3,528.91. The BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.51% to 4,011.15. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Mid-cap index has gained 975.42 points or 38.19% from a low of 2,553.49 on 9 March 2009. The BSE Small-Cap index has gained 1,144.47 points or 39.92% from 2,866.68 on 9 March 2009.

The BSE Metal index (up 2.53%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 1.79%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.65%), the BSE Realty index (up 1.52%), the BSE Power index (up 1.33%), the BSE Auto index (down 0.68%), the BSE TECk index (up 0.64%), the BSE PSU index (down 0.04%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.05%), the BSE IT index (down 0.05%), the BSE Healthcare index (down 0.25%) outperfomed the Sensex.

The BSE FMCG index (down 0.75%), the BSE Bankex (down 0.96%), underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1,509 stocks advanced as compared to 1,059 that declined. A total of 56 shares remained unchanged.

From the 30 share Sensex pack 19 stocks fell while rest gained.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 0.22% to 1,713.70. The stock was volatile. It hit a high of Rs 1,752.90 and a low of Rs 1,687.60 . Reliance Industries has announced the suspension of its export oriented unit (EOU) status for its oil & gas refinery in Jamnagar as the company plans to operate as a non-EOU refinery with effect from 16th April 2009 to cater to the increasing demand of petroleum products in the country.

PSU OMCs rose as crude oil fell on concern inventories will rise as the global recession saps demand for fuels in the US, the world's biggest energy user. BPCL, HPCL and Indian Oil Corporation rose by between 0.06% to 1.01%. Crude oil for May delivery fell as much as $1.03, or 2.1%, to $49.30 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Lower oil prices will reduce under-recoveries at the state-run oil firms on domestic sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene at a controlled price.

Shares of FMCG companies fell as recovering equity market forced investors to dump these so called defensive stocks. United Spirits, United Breweries, ITC, Hindustan Unilever fell by between 0.01% to 1.94%.

Outsourcing focussed IT firms fell in volatile trade on fears a weak global economy would cut the amount firms spent on technology. India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro fell 0.26% to Rs 273.60. It hit a high of Rs 281.45 and a low of Rs 267.50. Its ADR rose 1.8% on Friday.

India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS fell 2.21% to Rs 560.40 ahead of its Q4 March 2009 result today. It hit a high of Rs 582 and a low of Rs 552.60. A total of nine brokerages expect a between 7.6% fall to 13% growth in Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)' net profit at between Rs 1249.60 crore to Rs 1528 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q3 December 2008. The nine brokerages expect a between a 1.44% fall to a 3.1% rise in sales to between Rs 7171.80 crore to Rs 7502.80 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q3 December 2008.

India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies was almost unchanged at Rs 1,392.25. It hit a high of Rs 1,409.70 and a low of Rs 1,373.20. Its ADR rose 1.75% on Friday. But India's fifth largest IT firm by sales HCL Technologies rose 6.23%.

Polaris Software rose 12.91% on reporting 78.52% surge in net profit to Rs 130.71 crore in the year ended March 2009 over the year ended March 2008 on a consolidated basis.

The Indian rupee eased for a third consecutive session on Monday, tracking the dollar's strength against some currencies and weak Asian stock markets. The partially convertible rupee was at 50.33 per dollar, below Friday 17 April 2009 close of 49.87/88. A weak rupee boosts revenues of IT firms in rupee terms as IT companies earn a lion's share of revenue from exports.

Banking stocks fell in volatile trade on fears of rising defaults in a weakening economy. India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank fell 0.12% to Rs 1,066.90. It hit a high of Rs 1,098 and a low of Rs 1,049 . Its American depository receipt (ADR) rose 0.32% on Friday 17 April 2009. Its advance tax payment rose 10% to Rs 275 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 3.38% to Rs 426.55. It hit a high of Rs 455.60 and a low of Rs 423.15. Its American depository receipts (ADR) rose 0.91% on Friday, 17 April 2009. ICICI Bank's advance tax payment remained unchanged at Rs 250 crore in Q4 March 2009 when compared to Q4 March 2008.

India's biggest dedicated housing finance firm by operating income HDFC fell 2.16% to Rs 1,754.05, off the day's high of Rs 1,811.

India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India fell 0.8% to Rs 1,295.95. It hit a high of Rs 1,340 and a low of Rs 1,299.25. Its advance tax payment jumped 27.64% to Rs 1810 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008.

Meanwhile, ten-year bonds rose for a fourth day on Monday, 20 April 2009, on speculation the central bank will lower interest rates tomorrow, when it announces monetary policy for the fiscal year through March 2010. The yield on the 6.05% note due February 2019 dropped two basis points to 6.39% as of 11:37 IST. Bond yields and bond prices are inversely related.

It may be recalled that many banks had reported robust Q3 December 2008 results on the back of treasury gains as bond prices soared. Bond yields and bond prices are inversely related.

Metal shares rose on talks the worst may be over for the global economy. Tata Steel, Steel Authority of India, Sterlite Industries rose by between 1.36% to 2.81%.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro extended gains for the second straight day, rising 2.01% to Rs 883.90 as the company expects its order inflow to grow by 25-35% in the year ending March 2010. But the stock came off the day's high of Rs 897.95.

Other capital goods stocks Bharat Heavy Electricals, ABB, Praj Industries, Thermax rose by between 0.19% to 8.02%.

Some healthcare stocks rose triggered by expectations of better Q4 March 2009 results following reports of higher advance tax payment by these firms. Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Pfizer, Lupin, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals rose by between 1.24% to 6.97%.

But Cipla lost 2.98% on reports the US Food and Drug Administration has found nine deviations in manufacturing process during a recent inspection of the company's Bangalore plant.

Rate sensitive real estate shares rose on hopes lower rates will spur housing demand. DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate and Housing Development & Infrastrucuture rose by between 0.11% to 2.68%. Most of the realty deals including sale of commercial property and housing sales is driven by finance.

Unitech rose 2.19% extending gains after its board of directors approved raising upto Rs 5000 crore by way of issue of equity shares to institutional buyers. A television report on 16 April 2009, said United had raised nearly $325 million by selling fresh shares to institutional investors via a qualified institutional placement (QIP). The shares were placed at Rs 38.50 each, the report said.

Meanwhile, Unitech has partly repaid Rs 500 crore loan it owes to mutual fund houses and has rescheduled the remaining part, as per reports.

Unitech clocked the highest volume of 3.49 crore shares on BSE. Cals Refineries (1.7 crore shares), IFCI (1.5 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.47 crore shares) and Satyam Computer Services (1.13 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 247.90 crore on BSE. Reliance Capital (Rs 244.31 crore), Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 236.15 crore), Unitech (Rs 191.07 crore) and ICICI Bank (Rs 175.74 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.