Market seen range-bound; stock specific activity to rule the roost

Key benchmark indices are likely to see a flat start on mixed global cues. Also profit booking might emerge after a recent solid rally, which saw the BSE 30-share Sensex surging 35.08% or 2862.69 points to 11,023.09 on 17 April 2009 from a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009

Volatility may heighten on the bourses with investor focus likely to be on the March 2009 quarterly earnings and the Reserve bank of India's meeting on 21 April 2009 to review interest rates.

With inflation slowing to around 20- year low in the first week of April 2009, analysts opine the central bank may cut interest rates further to boost slowing economy. the central bank's comments on the economic outlook, direction of interest rates
and credit growth target will be closely watched by the market.

The central bank has cut its main short-term lending rate or repo rate by 400 basis points to 5% in five moves since October 2008.

Wholesale prices rose 0.18% in the week to 4 April 2009 from a year earlier after rising 0.26% the previous week, government data showed Thursday, 16 April 2009.

TCS, Axis Bank, Sesa Goa, Escorts, Merck and Polaris among others will declare their March 2009 quarterly results today, 20 April 2009.

Also political uncertainty, with polling for India's 15th Lok Sabha underway, may lead to volatile swings on the bourses. The month-long parliamentary elections that began on 16 April 2009 will conclude on 13 May 2009 with results due on 16 May 2009. Poll estimates point to a fractured mandate.

Asian markets were trading mixed today, 20 April 2009. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were up by between 0.17% and 1.34%. However indices in Singapore, South Korea, and Japan were down by between 0.42% and 0.74%.

US markets ended flat on Friday, 17 April 2009 on better-than-expected results from General Electric and Citigroup. The Dow Jones rose 5.90 points or 0.1% to 8,131.33. The S&P 500 rose 4.30 points, 0.5% to 869.60 while the Nasdaq Composite index added 2.63 points or 0.2% to 1673.07.

Back home, the BSE 30-share Sensex rose 75.69 points or 0.69% to 11,023.09 and the S&P CNX Nifty gained 14.90 points or 0.44% at 3384.40, on Friday, 17 April 2009, on easing concerns about the global economy and reports of near-normal monsoon in India this year.

According to provisional data on NSE, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers worth Rs 669.85 crore while domestic institutional investors funds bought shares worth Rs 182.70 crore on Friday, 17 April 2009.

Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on 17 April 2009 forecast a near normal monsoon this year. The IMD said rainfall in the June-September 2009 monsoon season was expected to be 96% of the long-term average. The outlook is among the nation's most widely watched indicator as monsoon rains are a major influence on output of key crops, economic activity and also affects sentiment in the country's financial markets.