Market may take cues from global equities, oil prices

The market is slated to track global equities in the absence of major domestic trigger. However better than expected Q4 gross domestic product figures which were unveiled by the government on Friday, 30 May 2008, would provide some succor to the market. Earnings downgrade amid rising input and interest costs, high inflation, rising crude oil prices and drying up of global liquidity due to credit crisis remain major concern for the Indian stock market. The fourth quarter corporate results were more or less in line with market expectations.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.8% in Q4 March 2008 from a year earlier, led by strong expansion in the services sector, government data showed on 30 May 2008. The annual growth matched an upwardly revised 8.8% growth in Q3 December 2007. The GDP growth was 9% in FY 2008 (year ended March 2008). The government had earlier estimated annual growth of 8.7% in FY 2008.

Q4 March 2008-results season is over. Aggregate results of 2084 companies showed 13.1% rise in net profit on 24.9% rise in net sales in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007, so far. There was 26.6% rise in net profit on 20.6% rise in net sales in the year ended March 2008 over year ended March 2007.

The market had succumbed to selling pressure recently as weak global equities and soaring crude oil prices worried investors. An imminent hike in domestic retail fuel prices due to soaring crude oil prices also weighed on the market.

Reportedly the government is expected to take a decision on whether to raise fuel prices in the next two to three days, with key political leaders expressing a willingness to tackle mounting losses at state oil firms. Oil prices hovered near $126 per barrel after dropping $4 on Thursday, 29 May 2008, retreating further from a record high above $135 a barrel hit last week.

India's wholesale price index rose 8.1% in the 12 months to 17 May 2008, above the previous week's annual rise of 7.82%, government data showed. Inflation for the week ended 22 March 2008 was revised upwards to 7.85% from 7%. The annual inflation rate was 5.30% during the corresponding week of the previous year.

The spiraling inflation has been a major cause of concern for Indian equities market. Forthcoming inflation data will be closely watched as it remains as a major worry and hindrance for the domestic growth. With parliamentary elections scheduled next year (May 2009), the government may leave no stone unturned in its attempt to tame inflation. This is bad news for commodity shares.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,927.60 crore so far in the month of May 2008. They sold shares worth Rs 14,285.70 crore in calendar year 2008 till 28 May 2008. Domestic funds sold shares worth Rs 567 crore in the month of May 2008, till 28 May 2008.

Adhunik Metal, PVR, IFB Agro Industries, Motherson Sumi Systems, Page Industries, Mcleod Russell, Engineers India, GMR Industries, Shasun Chemicals, Orbit Corporation, AIA Engineering, Balmer Lawrie, Peninsula Land, Berger Paints, Sundaram Fasteners are slated to announce March 2008 quarter results next week.