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Wednesday, April 04, 2007

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY


We are the World

Personal transformation can and does have global effects. As we go, so goes the world, for the world is us. The revolution that will save the world is ultimately a personal one.

With the world markets in the pink of health, local bulls may find courage to continue the recovery after Monday's mayhem. However, cement stocks may not be that lucky with the Government firing the fresh salvo in the tussle with the cement producers over high prices. Still, the fact that the Centre is willing to consider rolling back the dual excise duty structure is a positive development. Crude oil prices too are down slightly following some cooling in the tension between Iran and the UK. In short, we are looking at another bright start, and perhaps a good day buoyed by the positive global sentiment. Having said that, all the concerns and anxiety over rising interest rates and its impact on the economy still remain intact. So do worries about the state of the US economy.

In a few days though, investors will have to deal with a lot of results. On the whole, India Inc should come out with a strong report card. But, its the future earnings growth that needs to be looked at in the context of the monetary tightening measures and a likely slowdown in economic growth. One thing is for sure that the market this year will be highly volatile with regular bouts of buying and selling. A stock specific approach should be the way to go. For long-term investors, any further dips will provide them with an opportunity to buy fundamentally sound stocks.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs60.1mn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment, they were net buyers to the tune of Rs14.28bn. Foreign funds offloaded stocks worth Rs4.74bn on Monday. Mutual Funds pumped in Rs635.6mn on the same day.

RPL and Sterlite enter the Nifty today. OBC and Jet Airways make their way out.

US stocks closed sharply higher on Tuesday on the back of lower oil prices and an unexpected rise in pending home sales. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index had its second straight gain. Google's biggest jump since March 6 gave the Nasdaq Composite Index its fourth consecutive advance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 128, or 1%, to 12,510.30. The blue chip benchmark is now 1% shy of recouping all of its decline from the global equity sell-off that began Feb. 27. The S&P 500 rose 13.22, or 0.9%, to 1437.77. The Nasdaq increased 28.07, or 1.2%, to 2450.33.

Crude oil futures fell 2% to $64.64 a barrel in New York. Oil has pulled back after reaching a six-month high last week. The front-month crude contract was quoting flat at $64.65 a barrel in extended trading in Asia.

Prime Minister Tony Blair said that the UK will try to negotiate with Iran over the release of 15 captive British naval personnel, easing concern that oil shipments will be disrupted.

US treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 4.66% from 4.64% late on Monday. In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and the yen. COMEX gold for June delivery fell $1.80 to settle at $669.70 an ounce.

European shares gained. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 1% to 379.29. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.6% at 6,366.10, the French CAC-40 rose 1.2% to 5,711.91 and the German DAX Xetra 30 gained 1.6% to 7,045.56, a level not seen since the end of February.

Latin American markets finished higher. In Mexico, the IPC finished up 177 points, or 0.6%, at 29,348.09. In Brazil, the Bovespa rose 691 points, or 1.5%, to end at 46,288.16. Argentina's Merval index rose 0.6%, to close at 2,114.62. Also, Chile's IPCA gained 0.9% to a close at $2,967.54.

Asian stocks advanced for a second day on Wednesday after falling oil prices and an unexpected increase in home sales boosted confidence in the outlook for the US economy, the region's biggest export market. Toyota and Samsung Electronics led gains.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index gained 1.1% to 146.04 as of 10:43 a.m. in Tokyo. All 10 industry groups advanced. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.5% to 17,504.89.

Indexes in South Korea, Singapore and Australia were set for record highs, while Taiwan's Taiex is poised to recover all of its losses since a five-day global selloff in equities in late February. All other benchmarks in the region advanced.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose as the central bank refrained from raising interest rates to a decade high. BHP Billiton led resources shares higher after copper prices climbed to a five- month high in New York.

The yen traded near the lowest in five weeks against the dollar as traders borrowed cheaply in Japan to invest in U.S. and European stocks.

Some of the money that has been sitting on the sidelines started coming back into the global equity markets during the fourth week of March, says Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR). All of the major equity and fixed income fund groups tracked by EPFR posted net inflows for the week with four of them – US, Global, Western Europe and Asia ex-Japan Equity Funds – taking in over $1bn apiece.

The combined Emerging Market Equity Funds took in net inflows of $2bn, their first weekly inflow since mid-February and their second strongest week this year. Sentiment towards China, whose equity market correction in late February had a domino-like effect around the world, also took a turn for the better, according to EPFR.

HOW MARKET FARED

Cement may crumble sentiment

The Bulls made a smart come back on bourses as both the key indices recovered partially after yesterday’s slaughter. The markets had a one-way upward trend today, initially it was a bit uncertain but the key indices strengthened as the session progressed. The rally was led by Technology stocks. Oil & Gas, Capital Good and FMCG stocks also followed suit. However, the Mid-Cap and the small cap index under performed but managed to close in green. The frontline stocks like BHEL, HLL, Infosys, ONGC, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel aided the markets to close higher.

Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex regained 169 points to close at 12624. NSE Nifty also gained 57 points to close at 3690.

BHEL spurred by over 4.5% to Rs2254 after the company announced its FY07 provisional result with net profit at Rs23.85n and revenue at Rs187bn and also announced that it would spend Rs32bn to raise capacity. The scrip was the top gainer among 50-scrip’s of NSE Nifty touching an intra-day high of Rs2283 and a low of Rs2150 and recorded volumes of over 10,00,000 shares on NSE.

JSW Steel gained some momentum towards the fag end, the scrip edged higher by 0.8% to Rs478 according to reports the company increased the export price of steel by Rs1,500-Rs2,500 per tonne for various grades. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs483 and a low of Rs470 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on NSE.

ACC ended on a flat note at Rs704 after hitting an intra-day high of Rs718. The Company announced that its March cement sales were up by 3.42% at Rs1.81mn. The scrip touched an intra-day low of Rs692 and recorded volumes of over 10,00,000 shares on NSE.

Sterlite Industries witnessed huge intra-day gyrations. After hitting the low of Rs420 the scrip gained by 0.3% to finally close at Rs427. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs433 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,00 shares on NSE.

Indian Hotels edged lower by 0.6% to Rs139. The company announced that its unit would acquire Hotel Campton Place. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs143 and a low of Rs138 and recorded volumes of over 17,00,000 shares on NSE.

Technology stocks were in the limelight led by heavy weights like Wipro which gained by 3% to Rs534, Satyam computer was up by 2.8% to Rs460 and Infosys added 2.1% to Rs278. HCL-Tech, Mastek and Moser Baer were the major gainers among the Mid-Cap stocks.

Select Real Estate stocks fell in a market that partially recovered. Unitech was locked at 5% lower circuit to Rs349.70, Indiabulls also lost over 5% to Rs382, Parsvnath was down by 0.6% to Rs239 and Akruti Nirman declined 2.3% to Rs404.

Cement stocks witnessed fresh buying. Grasim surged by over 2% to Rs2102, Gujarat Ambuja advanced 1.7% to Rs105, India Cement gained 1.3% to Rs156 and ACC was flat at Rs704.

Telecom stocks rang with gains. Reliance Communication advanced by 1.4% to Rs402, Bharti Airtel gained by 0.6% to Rs733 after the Enterprises and the world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores, would sign a legal agreement for their joint retail venture this month and MTNL added 0.6% to Rs143.

Auto stocks also gained momentum on back of fresh buying. Hero Honda, M&M, Tata Motors and Maruti were among the major gainers.