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Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Close : Get some help from global footsteps !!


Extending yesterdays recovery, the market cashed in on positive note taking cues from strong global markets as well as low crude prices. Global markets were firm. Asian stocks extended their rally after reassuring US housing data and falling oil prices boosted investors appetite for risk. Europe markets traded mixed. Metal shares advanced today, after metal futures rose on the London Metal Exchange. Though the market remained in the green throughout the day, it suffered from volatility in the mid sessions. IT companies traded mixed after the Rupee moved below 43 versus the Dollar. Banking, Pharma and Sugar stocks were in demand. Cement traded subdued for the day. Investors are still worried about high inflation. The inflation data will be released tomorrow instead of Friday. Stock exchanges will remain closed for a public holiday on Friday.

As per some reports, the mutual fund (MF) industry grew nearly by 41% in FY07 to Rs 3,26,328 cr as against Rs 2,31,045 cr in FY06. With this, the industry has now grown around 142% since March 2004 when its assets under management (AUM) stood at Rs 1, 34,839 cr. Reliance MF topped the chart with an AUM of Rs 46,306 cr followed by ICICI Prudential (Rs 37,869 cr), UTI MF (Rs 35,488 cr), HDFC MF (Rs 28,357 cr) and Franklin Templeton (Rs 22,018 cr).

Sensex closed up by 162 points at 12786.77. It was helped up by gains in HDFC (1497.25,+5 percent), NTPC (160.95,+4 percent), BHEL (2352.8999,+4 percent), Dr Reddys (745.65,+4 percent) and Wipro (549.15,+3 percent). Restricting the gains were Hero Honda (643.9,-2 percent), Grasim (2063.8999,-2 percent), Maruti (745.45,-1 percent), Satyam (453.05,-1 percent) and RCVL (397.8,-1 percent).

Arcelor-Mittal and Birlas are in the final leg of Sesa Goa takeover. Both the companies have a distinct edge over the other and they are may be joined by other foreign companies like Vedanta Resources and Brazilian miner CVRD. Sesa Goa is India?s largest private exporter of iron ore. The bids by Aditya Birla Group and Arcelor Mittal are believed to have quoted near to Rs 2000 per share for the 51% stake owned by Mitsui. This is much below the range of Rs 2500 per share that prevailed in the second round of bidding. The main reason for lower range was the Budget proposal to levy a duty of Rs 300 per tonne on iron ore exports. While speculation is still on that Mitsui may choose to call the top two contenders to Tokyo for a final round of negotiations but this was however not confirmed. Sesa Goa's annual production is about 9 mtpa. The company is known to have iron ore reserves in excess of 150 million tonne. The company also has a prospective license for Jharkhand-based mines.

Cement companies declined in an overall strong market after the government abolished 16% countervailing duty and an additional 4% customs duty on portland cement with immediate effect. Government expects cement manufacturers, in the larger interest of consumers and for checking inflation to take appropriate measures for moderating cement prices. Cement stocks had a sluggish day with some buying interest seen in the mid sessions but most of the stocks closed in red.

Ashok Leyland?s dropped 1.6% to Rs 35.50, after its vehicle sales in March 2007, fell 1.6% to 8,444 units from 8,577 units a year earlier. Domestic sales dropped 1.9% to 7,936 units from 8,087 in the same period a year ago. Exports rose to 508 units from 490 a year earlier. The monthly sales numbers of most of the companies have been declared and are low. Most numbers have been below the market expectation. The rise in interest rates is likely to adversely impact the sale of cars in the country. The same is also substantiated by the lower loan offtakes reported by some of the automobile finance companies. According to ICICI Bank, which has the largest market share in automobile loans, the growth in passenger car sales is expected to fall to 10% to 12% YoY in FY08, compared to 24% YoY in FY07. This may also lead to pricing pressures in the automobile industry and defer the launch of new models.

Technically Speaking: Markets traded ranged but in green. Sensex touched intraday high of 12835 and low of 12691. Market turnover stood at Rs 3218 cr. Overall breadth was in favor of Advances, where the Advance was 1548 against the Decliners of 946. A strong Advance Decline ratio in the markets gives an indication for more upside. Yet a strong resistance on Sensex lies at 12830. Support is now at 12650.