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Sunday, June 22, 2014

Markets dip for 2nd week on rise in Crude prices

India’s stock markets ended lower on weak global scenario and profit booking. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.49% and Nifty slipped 0.41% for the week ended June 20, 2014
Major Headlines for the week:
Annual report review; Maintain BUY with revised price target
ICRA jumps as Moody's hikes stake
Ricoh India tanks 20% on failure of delisting offer
Indian indices:
Welcome to the ‘Weekly Market Wrap’ for June 20, 2014 where key benchmark indices declined last week as crude oil prices rose and as the rupee fell against the dollar, which stoked concerns of fuel price inflation and increase in India's current account deficit and fiscal deficit. The latest data showing increase in inflation based on the wholesale price index in May 2014 also weighed on sentiment. Selling was focused on large-caps, as mid and small-cap indices on BSE ended the week on a positive note.
The S&P BSE Sensex fell 122.66 points or 0.49% to 25,105.51. The 50-unit CNX Nifty fell 30.65 points or 0.41% to 7,511.45.
The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index rose 26.03 points or 0.29% to 8961.96 and the S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 86.64 points or 0.90% to 9,761.22. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
Major events of the week:
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose a five-month high of 6.01% in May against 5.2% in the previous month, driven by costlier protein-based items, fuel and some manufactured products. The data, released officially today, presents a complex picture before the government and the Reserve Bank of India as its consumer price index-counterpart had eased to a three-month low.
Weekly market trend from June 16 – June 20:
June 16- Amid volatile trading session on Monday, markets ended marginally lower as the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) accelerated. The S&P BSE Sensex was lower by 37 points or 0.15% at 25,190 while the CNX Nifty declined 16 points or 0.22 at 7,525.
June 17- Indian shares gained on Tuesday, snapping two days of falls and recovering from a 1-1/2 week low hit in the previous session, helped by gains in upstream oil and gas companies on expectation of margin expansion after a surge in international oil prices. The BSE Sensex rose 1.31% and NSE Nifty gained 1.30% for the day. The Sensex closed at 25521.19, up by 330.71 points, while the Nifty rose 98.15 points to close at 7631.70
June 18- The BSE Sensex and Nifty fell by 1% on Wednesday, heading towards their biggest single-day fall since late January, on concerns about the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and the government's finances. The Sensex closed at 25246.25, declined by 274.94 points, while the Nifty fell 73.50 points to close at 7558.20.
June 19- Indian markets traded weak but recovered marginally from their day's lows on Thursday, after oil and financial shares trimmed losses while gains in IT majors helped improve sentiment. The BSE Sensex slipped 0.18% and NSE Nifty fell 0.23% for the day. The Sensex was down 44.45 points at 25201.80 while Nifty ended at 7540.70, down 17.50 points
June 20- Indian shares fell for the third straight session on Friday, hitting their lowest close in over two weeks as blue-chips slipped on Iraq violence led risk aversion. The BSE Sensex fell 0.38% and NSE Nifty slipped 0.39% for the day. The Sensex was down 96.29 points at 25105.51 while Nifty ended at 7511.45, down 29.25 points
Global indices:
Gainers: Nikkei up 1.67%, Nasdaq up 1.33% and Dow Jones up 1.02%.
Losers: Shanghai Composite down 2.13%, Hang Seng down 0.54% and CAC 40 down 0.04%.
Sectoral and stock screening:

Topmost Gainer: S&P BSE CD up 4.41%, S&P BSE IT up 2.84% and S&P BSE TECk up 2.69%.
Topmost Loser: S&P BSE Oil&Gas down 2.18%, S&P BSE Auto down 2.12%, S&P CG down 1.61%.
Looking at the 'A' group stocks, the top three gainers of the week were – Crisil up 9.61%, Bharat Electronics up 7.75%, MCX up 6.43%.
Top three losers of the week were - Suzlon Energy fell by 16.89%, Oriental Bank of Commerce fell by 13.53% and Shriram Transport Finance down 13.47%.
FII/MF activity
The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been the net sellers of the Indian stocks to the tune of Rs184.63 crore as on June 19, 2014 and the domestic investors bought Indian shares worth a net of Rs1031.7 crore as on June 19, 2014.
Market outlook for the coming week!
In the coming week, movement in crude oil prices, the progress and the spread of the monsoon rains, trend in global equity markets and investment activity of foreign institutional investors will dictate near term trend of domestic stocks.
The market may remain volatile next week as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month June 2014 series to July 2014 series. The near-month June 2014 F&O contract expire on Thursday, 26 June 2014.
Increase in oil prices has triggered macroeconomic worries for India which imports majority of its crude oil requirements. Increase in crude oil prices has raised concerns of increase in fuel price inflation and increase in India's current account deficit and fiscal deficit.
The progress of the monsoon rains holds key amid concerns that poor rains this year will send food prices higher. As per reports, the monsoon has reached half of the country so far. The all India seasonal rainfall from 1 to 18 June 2014 was 45% below long period average.
Stock/sector specific movement may rule the roost in the near term based on earnings expectations and based on expectations from the upcoming final Union Budget for 2014-15 which is the first Budget of the new government at Centre led by BJP. The Q1 June 2014 corporate earnings will begin in mid-July 2014 and continue until mid-August 2014.