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Monday, July 09, 2012

No respite for now


"We experience moments absolutely free from worry. These brief respites are called panic." - C Hightower. Markets around the world are unlikely to find any respite from selling pressure in the near term amid mounting worries over slowing growth. While the Indian market has held up quite well lately, the resilience will be tested in the coming days as companies start reporting Q1 FY13 results. A fall is a given at start owing to depressed global cues. US stocks tumbled on Friday following a disappointing monthly jobs report. High unemployment is one of the major headwinds confronting the developed world. It is likely to stay elevated as growth continues to be anemic. European markets too slumped on Friday with Spanish bond yields back near 7%. Asian markets are mostly in the red this morning. Back home, investors will keenly track data on industrial production and inflation in the run up to the month-end RBI policy review. Thursday will be a big day for the Indian markets. Apart from the latest IIP data, investors will react to earnings from IT titans Infosys and TCS. HDFC siblings are also due to announce their results this week along with few other companies. The results season will see a pick up from next week. The trading range on the Nifty has moved higher to 5280-5400. A star like pattern after a sharp rally means some loss of momentum. Further consolidation is not ruled out in the coming days. The dollar index is above 83 while the euro has slipped under US$1.23. NYMEX crude is hovering ~US$86 per barrel while Brent is ~US$98 a barrel. Gold is ~US$1,600 an ounce. China’s inflation eased sharply in June as food costs and industrial demand softened, raising hopes of further policy action from the policymakers. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said that the Chinese economy is running at a generally stable pace, but still faces huge pressure to go downward. Japan's machinery orders fell more than expected while its current-account balance narrowed. Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 5.71bn in the cash segment on Friday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs 3.23bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE. The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 5.71bn in the F&O segment on Friday, according to the provisional NSE data. The foreign funds were net buyers of Rs 4.56bn in the cash segment on Thursday while the Mutual Funds were net sellers at Rs 620mn, according to the SEBI figures. Global Data Watch today: Japan machinery orders, Japan trade balance, Japan current account, European Council meeting, China's consumer price index, China producer price index, Fed's Evans Speaks, Germany trade balance and current account balance, BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker speaks, ECB President Draghi's Speech, Fed's William Dudley speech, FOMC Member Williams speech and US Consumer Credit Change (May).