Calm and quite!

Great events make me quiet and calm; it is only trifles that irritate my nerves. - Queen Victoria.

Welcome to a blockbuster week given the significant events that are scheduled over the next five days. The RBI has only added to the intrigue and drama by slashing the CRR by an aggressive 75 bps; that too just ahead of its policy review on March 15.

The SGX Nifty futures suggest a positive opening despite mixed Asian markets. US markets managed slender gains while European indices finished higher.



The undercurrent will be underpinned by the CRR cut, encouraging US jobs data and successful Greek bond swap. Also keep an eye on the IIP data for January. Inflation for February will be released on Wednesday.

The Budget session of Parliament kicks off today as well. The Congress is likely to be on the defensive following the disappointing show in the assembly polls.

Railway budget is scheduled for March 14 while the Economic Survey will be out on Thursday. But, all eyes are on Union Budget, which is to be presented on Friday. It would be prudent to take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach before taking any directional call on the market.

A ‘Doji star’ on weekly candlestick chart with negative closing indicates indecisiveness; a positive momentum will be confirmed on a higher opening on Monday. The Nifty has fallen for three successive weeks with the 200 DMA providing short term relief. The pivot level for the Nifty is placed at 5390; above which the sideways trend could turn positive for the near term.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 12.84bn in the cash segment on Friday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs 129mn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 8.03bn in the F&O segment on Friday, according to the provisional NSE data.

The foreign funds were net sellers of Rs 2.96bn in the cash segment on Wednesday, as per SEBI web site. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs 1.85bn on the same day.

Global Data Watch today: China trade balance (-US$31.48bn), Japan core machinery orders, EU Finance Ministers meeting, Consumer Confidence Index (Feb), Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Feb) and US Monthly Budget Statement (Feb).