Jan joy over?

Generally the theories we believe we call facts, and the facts we disbelieve we call theories. - Felix Cohen.

The January effect and the Tuesday wonders this month brought the much desired buying in most counters this year. But then today is another month and another day. The start is not looking all that bad though owing to a positive trend across Asia. The regional mood is sanguine after China’s official manufacturing PMI surprisingly increased in January vs. expectations of a drop.

More manufacturing PMI reports will be out later in the day from across the globe. The Indian market will react to the latest trade data apart from the monthly auto and cement volumes.



The Nifty is just shy of its 200 DMA of 5195. A close above the same for could reinforce the current intermediate upswing. Some cooling is not ruled out following a Terrific Tuesday and an equally stunning January.

FII flows were robust but the jury is still out on whether this momentum will persist in February as well. State elections, Budget and RBI policy will be the main domestic events to keep on one’s radar apart from global events.

Eurozone troubles are a big overhang at the moment. The deal on the proposed restructuring of Greek debt remains elusive. Negotiations between Greek government and private bondholders are likely to end today. Portugal is feared to be next in line for seeking writedowns on its debt load. Italy and Spain too have crippling debt burdens. In short, the world economy will do a whole lot better if Europe manages to come out of the current mess largely unscathed.

Talking of fiscal conditions, India’s budget deficit has almost reached the year-end projection. The external balance sheet too is showing some signs of stress. movement in currency and commodities will be crucial going ahead. One has to see how the Government tackles these issues once the political compulsions of state elections subside.

The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 6.24bn in the cash segment on Tuesday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers at Rs 2.41bn, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 7.77bn in the F&O segment on Tuesday, according to the provisional NSE data.

The foreign funds were net sellers of Rs 796mn in the cash segment on Monday, as per final SEBI data. Mutual Funds were net sellers at Rs 3.3bn on the same day.

Major Results Today: Ashok Leyland, Satyam Computer, UCO Bank and Welcorp.

Global Data Watch: Australia housing data, China manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, Eurozone manufacturing PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, eurozone CPI, US manufacturing PMI, US private employment data and US construction spending.