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Friday, May 27, 2011

Fine for the moment!


If we take care of the moments, the years will take care of themselves. - Maria Edgeworth.

Some late short-covering-led bounce lifted Indian indices on the F&O expiry day. Those gains may spill over into today’s session as most Asian markets are trading firm. Japanese shares are down due to a stronger yen. US stocks recovered from intraday lows to finish higher. Technology shares did even better on Wall Street.

Stock benchmarks in Europe were rather subdued. In the absence of major domestic cues, the close today will hinge on overseas markets. Overall, the market will stay sideways in the near-term. The Nifty is likely to find support in the 5300-5400 band and resistance in the 5500-5600 range.



The F&O rollovers for May have been lower than average. Banking is a space where one should be cautious. The Nifty futures for June are in the discount. The June series will be fairly long. So, it is difficult to predict how the market will unfold over the next month.

We will have to contend with the RBI mid-quarter policy review. Inflation remains high. FII flows have not been great. Global prospects are also indifferent. A measured approach is the order of the day though matters appear fine for the moment.

The recovery on Thursday could be construed as a technical pullback rather than a trend reversal as the Nifty has been maintaining its lower top, lower bottom formation. The resistance line extended from an intermediate peak of 5605 is acting as stiff hurdle around 5450.

Public sector oil companies will be in the limelight amid reports that the Government is mulling scrapping subsidies on the politically sensitive LPG and kerosene from April next year. The EGoM on fuel prices is to take up these proposals on June 9. But, one must be careful as the Centre has been dithering on this critical policy issue for quite a while. Also, one has to see whether all these proposals will eventually see the light of day.

Keep an eye on Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra and other corporates that came out with their earnings on Thursday.

Reliance Industries could be in the spotlight again amid reports that the company has placed a bid for Australia's Premier Coal. Hindalco will be in focus too after its subsidiary Novelis reported strong results. Hindalco will report its earnings on Monday.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs 1.24bn in the cash segment on Wednesday, according to the provisional NSE data. The domestic institutional institutions (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 2.33bn on the same day.

In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs 2.05bn. The foreign funds were net sellers of Rs 4.18bn in the cash segment on Wednesday, as per SEBI web site. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs 129mn on the same day.

Results Today: Apar Industries, Bank of Baroda, Bombay Rayon, BPL, Britannia, Eros, Everest Kanto, FT, Fortis Healthcare, Four Soft, Gitanjali Gems, GNFC, GSFC, Havells India, HDIL, JSL, Neyveli Lignite, NHPC, NMDC, Omnitech, Page Industries, PVR, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Power, Shree Ashtavinayak, Shree Cement, Spicejet, Take Solutions, TN Newsprint, Time Technoplast and Ucal Fuel.

Globally, things are not looking that bright. The US economy is showing some signs of softening even as concerns prevail before the end of the so-called QE2 in June. US first-quarter GDP growth was kept unchanged at 1.8%. Eurozone continues to battle a deepening sovereign debt crisis. Japan is struggling after the March tragedy. Emerging economies such as China and India are facing persistent inflationary pressures.

Consumer prices rose in Japan for the first time in 28 months in April in the wake of a spike in global food and energy costs. Retailers suffered product shortages in the aftermath of the nation’s worst ever earthquake and tsunami in March.

Meanwhile, China ranks first among 22 emerging Asian economies as the country most likely to maintain steady and rapid growth over the next five years, according to the Bloomberg Economic Momentum Index for Developing Asia. The index suggests that China and India’s economic momentum is durable and will likely continue to drive global expansion even as growth in the US, Europe and Japan moderates.