Weekly Newsletter - Sep 3 2010

With data showing improvement in the US macroeconomic numbers, especially in manufacturing and payrolls, the global risk aversion could subside further. Monday promises to be a good day for the bulls, as world markets are expected to rejoice a better than expected US jobs data. The overall lost jobs were lower than forecast and private hiring turned out to be higher than anticipated. But, the unemployment rate is still pretty high at 9.6%. Jobless rate is also pretty elevated in the debt-plagued euro-zone, which could see some slowdown due to the tough austerity measures.



Japan has just joined the US in announcing fresh quantitative easing to bolster growth even as the ECB has extended its very own bank lending program. China of course has its own set of issues. So, not all is well with the world economy. As a result, we will continue to face volatility - both in economic statistics as well as in the markets. So, after a good start to the week, we may see the markets turning choppy again as investors realise that a full-fledged recovery will take painfully longer than anticipated.

Not much data is due out of the US or China next week though a few key reports are expected out of other parts of the world. Australia, Japan, Canada and the UK will announce latest interest rate decisions. Japan will also announce its latest GDP data. For India, the key events will be the IIP report, to be released on Sept. 10., apart from monthly inflation and the outcome of the RBI meeting in the middle of the month. The broad undertone will continue to be cautious. Large caps will face resistance at higher levels but the party may continue in the non-index counters.