Market may edge lower on weak Asian stocks; HDFC Bank Q1 result eyed

The market may edge lower tracking subdued Asian stocks which fell on weak economic data in the US. Trading of S&P CNX Nifty futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicated that the Nifty could fall 33 points at the opening bell.



In stock specific action, Private sector banking major HDFC Bank will announce its Q1 results today. Steel major Tata Steel has sold 27.03% stake in Southern Steel Berhad, Malaysia for $72 million, the company said after markt hours on Friday, 16 July 2010.

Asian stock markets fell on Monday, 19 July 2010, in the wake of a Friday sell-off on Wall Street triggered by weak economic data. The key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia and South Korea were down by 0.07% to 0.94%. But, China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.25%. Japanese markets were shut for Marine Day.

Dismal economic data and lower than expected revenues from GE and two big banks slammed US stocks on Friday, 16 July 2010, driving down major indexes more than 2%. General Electric Co, Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc joined the list of major companies that beat Wall Street's expectations, but investors unloaded some shares of all three after the companies reported a drop in quarterly revenues. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 261.41 points, or 2.52% to 10,097.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid 31.60 points, or 2.88% to 1,064.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 70.03 points, or 3.11% to 2,179.05.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey of consumers showed US consumer sentiment fell far more than expected to 66.5 in a preliminary July reading, down sharply from 76, June's final number. Earlier, the US Labor Department reported the US Consumer Price Index dipped 0.1% in June, which was weaker than the forecast for no change.

Back home, a sharp cut in corporate tax rate proposed in the direct taxes code is reportedly likely to be done in stages to ensure that tax collections do no plummet, derailing the government's attempts to bring the fiscal situation under control. The direct taxes code, or DTC, has proposed a cut in corporate tax rate to 25% from the current 30%, but will withdraw most tax exemptions available to companies. The government is likely to lower the tax rate to 27.5%, or a reduction of 2.5 percentage points, when the code comes into effect, likely from April 2011, reports suggest.

The stock market regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Thursday, 15 July 2010, allowed physical settlement of both stock options and stock futures. At present only cash settlement of derivatives is allowed. Sebi said stock exchanges will also have flexibility to offer a combination of cash settlement for stock options and physical settlement for stock or physical settlement for stock options and cash settlement for stock futures.

A stock exchange may introduce physical settlement in a phased manner, it said in a circular. On introduction, however, physical settlement for all stock options and/or all stock futures, as the case may be, must be completed within six months, Sebi said. The settlement mechanism shall be decided by the stock exchanges in consultation with the depositories,the stock market regulator said.

Meanwhile, the lower exposure margin requirement for stock derivatives has become effective from late last week.

On the macro front, the latest data showed that the fuel price index rose 14.27% in the year to 3 July 2010 and the food price index climbed 12.81%. Fuel price inflation eased from the previous week's annual rise of 18.02% while the pace of food price inflation edged up marginally from last week's 12.63%. Food inflation edged up because of higher rice and wheat prices. The primary articles index was up 16.25% compared with the previous week's reading of 16.08%.

The headline inflation rose lower-than-expected 10.55% in June 2010. The rate of increase was higher than May's rise of 10.16%. Inflation for April 2010 was revised upwards to 11.23% from 9.59%.

Weak monsoon rains in the past week will not significantly hurt crop output in the country and the weather outlook is encouraging, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Friday, 16 July 2010. Monsoon rains were 24% below normal in the week ended 14 July 2010. Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was excess in 8, normal in 4, deficient in 19 and scanty in 5 sub-divisions during the week. Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Sub- Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim received good rainfall during the week.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during this year's monsoon upto 15 July has so far been 14% below the long period average (LPA). Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 6, normal over 16 and deficient in 14 sub-divisions.

The southwest monsoon was vigorous over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and active over Saurashtra & Kutch and Arunachal Prades during past 24 hours, the IMD said in its daily update on Sunday, 18 July 2010. The IMD expects widespread rainfall over Uttar Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and northeastern States, in the near term. It said fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, East Rajasthan, Gangetic West Bengal, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

The IMD expects scattered rainfall over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Interior Karnataka, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next 48 hours and increase thereafter. It expects isolated to scattered rainfall over rest of the country in the near term. For the current week, the IMD expects widespread rainfall over west coast, along foothills of Himalaya and northeastern states. It also expects fairly widespread rainfall over central and east India this week.

The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country's farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The weather office expects this year's monsoon rains to be at 102% of the long-period average. Good monsoon rains would help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation.

The key benchmark indices eked out small gains on the final trading session of the week on Friday, 16 July 2010, snapping losses in the preceding two trading sessions, as European stocks rose. Sustained buying by foreign funds and stock market regulator Sebi's decision to allow physical settlement of stock derivatives, underpinned sentiment. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 46.36 points or 0.26% at 17,955.82.

As per provisional figures on NSE, foreign funds bought shares worth Rs 676.44 crore and domestic funds sold shares worth Rs 281.92 crore on Friday, 16 July 2010.