Sensex vaults 6.2% in 7 days as world stocks rise

The key benchmark index surged as strong US housing data and positive services sector data in India for May 2010 boosted risk appetite. The barometer index BSE Sensex reclaimed the psychological 17,000 level as the market gained for the sixth time in seven days. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 280.40 points or 1.68%, off close to 50 points from the day's high and up close to 235 points from the day's low.

The Sensex has jumped 999.85 points or 6.2% from recent low of 16,022.48 on 25 May 2010. It is off 5.2% from a recent peak of 17,970.02 on 7 April 2010. The barometer index has lost 2.5% in calendar 2010 so far after jumping 81% in 2009.

Coming back to today's trade, shares of India's second largest listed cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communications (RCom) surged for the second day in a row on reports the company was considering a merger with South Africa's MTN or roping in a strategic foreign investor to fund its foray into 3G services. Realty, banking, IT, auto and metal stocks rose. All the sectoral indices on BSE were in positive zone. The market breadth was strong.

NSE's volatility index India VIX, a gauge of traders' perception of near-term risks in the market based on options prices, dropped 8.9% to 25.29. The index had declined 4.54% to 27.76 on Wednesday, 2 June 2010, a day after surging 9.16% to 29.08 on Tuesday, 1 June 2010. India VIX is calculated based on the S&P CNX Nifty options prices. India VIX is a measure of the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 calendar days.

The market opened on a firm note tracking gains in Asian stocks. The Sensex moved past the psychological 17,000 level in morning trade. The market extended gains later. The market pared gains after hitting fresh intraday highs in early afternoon trade. The market once again pared gains in mid-afternoon trade after hitting a fresh intraday high. The market moved in a range during the last one hour of trade.

Business activity remained strong for India's vast services sector in May 2010, with a key gauge growing for a 13th consecutive month, though some momentum was lost over the previous month. The HSBC-Markit Business Activity Index stood at 58.2 in May 2010 from a 21-month high of 62.1 in April 2010. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Services make up about 55% of India's $1.2 trillion economy.

Another data showed that the food articles index rose 16.55% in the year to 22 May 2010, accelerating from previous week's rise of 16.23%. The primary articles index, which also includes food articles, rose 16.89%, higher than previous week's 15.90% rise. The fuel price index increased to 14.14 % versus 12.08% rise in the previous week.

European stocks rose to fresh two week highs as investor confidence in the global economy improved after strong US data. Key indices in UK, France and Germany rose by 1.72% to 2.25%.

Asian stock markets chalked up healthy gains on Thursday, following a rally on Wall Street which saw the Dow surge more than 200 points on Wednesday. The key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan rose by between 1.62% to 3.24%. But, China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.73%.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could gain 30 points at the opening bell on Thursday, 3 June 2010.

US stocks rallied on Wednesday as investors rushed back into beaten-down shares, led by energy, which bore the brunt of the sell-off a day earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 225.52 points, or 2.25% to 10,249.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 27.67 points, or 2.58% to 1,098.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 58.74 points or 2.64% to 2,281.07.

Investors were encouraged by data showing pending sales of previously owned homes increased to a six-month high in April 2010.

Back home, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh highlighted 12 major areas of his intended priority on Tuesday, 1 June 2010, while releasing the first anniversary report of the UPA-II government at a function in New Delhi. These include relations with neighbours, economic resurgence, internal security, education, health, child rights, food security, empowerment of women, weaker sections and minorities and rural renewal. He added that the economy is expected to grow at 8.5% in the current financial year ending March 2011.

The Prime Minister identified price rise as one of the major problems faced by his government but assured to monitor the situation and take necessary corrective measures to rein in inflation. Singh said India must withdraw fiscal stimulus to boost economic growth and reduce deficit in a calibrated manner.

The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday said inflation remained higher than its comfort level, signalling that the bank could raise interest rates further.

HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), based on a survey of 500 Indian firms, surged to a 27-month high of 59 in May 2010 from 57.2 in April 2010, bolstered by steady growth in output, new orders and employment. The rate of growth had slowed in March 2010 and April 2010.

India's economy grew at 8.6% in the March 2010 quarter driven by robust manufacturing sector on the back of government and consumer spending, data released by the government on Monday, 31 May 2010, showed. The growth was significantly higher than the revised 6.5% expansion in Q3 December 2009 and a 5.8% growth in Q4 March 2009. The manufacturing sector grew 16.3%, farm output rose 0.7%, mining sector expanded 14% and services increased by 8.4% in January-March 2010 quarter from a year earlier.

For the full year to March 2010, the economy expanded 7.4%, above a government forecast of 7.2%. Economic growth had slowed down to 6.7% in year ended March 2009.

The RBI expects India's economy to expand 8% in the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011) with an upward bias, assuming a normal monsoon this year and sustenance of good performance of the industrial and services sectors on the back of rising domestic and external demand. The RBI at its annual policy review on 20 April 2010 said it will continue to monitor macroeconomic conditions, particularly the price situation closely and take further action as warranted.

China, India, Brazil and Russia are powering ahead, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on 26 May 2010, revising upwards its growth outlook for all four largest emerging economies. The OECD revised India's GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 8.2% from its earlier estimate of 7.3%. It also raised the growth forecast for 2011 to 8.5% from its earlier estimate of 7.6%. The OECD also said that underlying inflationary pressures are likely to persist given the strong outlook for demand.

In its World Economic Outlook in April 2010, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pegged India's GDP growth forecast at 8.75% in calendar 2010 and 8.5% in calendar 2011. IMF's optimism was based on expectations of strengthening of domestic demand as the labour market improves. Expectations of increase in investment on the back of strong corporate profitability, rising business confidence and favourable financing conditions, were other factors cited by IMF for its prediction of strong growth in India's economy.

Meanwhile, a revenue bounty for the government from the sale of telecom spectrum would help bring down fiscal deficit in the current financial year.

The advance of the south west monsoon rains has been temporarily halted by a cyclonic depression in the Arabian Sea. Monsoon has covered Kerala and Tamil Nadu, but not moved beyond due to a cyclonic depression, according to agency reports. The weather office expects monsoon rains to advance to Karnataka later this weekend, by when the cyclone would weaken. The June-September monsoon rains hit Kerala on 31 May 2010, a day ahead of schedule. The south-west monsoon usually covers the entire country by mid-July.

The weather office late April 2010 said rainfall is likely to be 98% of the long-term average. Good monsoon rains would help raise farm output, boost rural incomes and lower food inflation.

Last month, Australia's weather bureau said the El Nino weather pattern was over. El Nino is caused by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean and can play havoc with weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region.

The south west monsoon is important for India as about 60% of the country's farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector. The quantum of rainfall in the crucial sowing month of July and distribution of rainfall during the monsoon season also holds key.

On the corporate front, the combined net profit of a total of 3,467 companies rose 14.20% to Rs 87,255 crore on 24.70% rise in sales to Rs 9,26,465 crore in the quarter ended March 2010 over the quarter ended March 2009.

The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 280.40 points or 1.68% to 17,022.33. The Sensex rose 330.79 points at the day's high of 17,072.63 in mid-afternoon trade. It rose 44.44 points at the day's low of 16,786.28 in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty gained 90.65 points or 1.81% to 5,110.50.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1.1% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.15%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

All the sectoral indices on the BSE rose. Banking sector index Bankex (up 1.99%), Teck index (up 1.89%), Oil & Gas index (up 1.71%) and IT index (up 1.69%) outperformed the Sensex. BSE Healthcare index (up 0.17%), Consumer Durables index (up 0.47%), PSU index (up 1.25%), Metal index (up 1.34%), Realty index (up 1.38%), Power index (up 1.38%), FMCG index (up 1.42%), Auto index (up 1.51%) and Capital Goods index (up 1.6%) underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1907 shares advanced as compared with 950 that declined. A total of 94 shares were unchanged.

The BSE clocked turnover of Rs 3737 crore, a tad higher than Rs 3728.13 crore on Wednesday, 2 June 2010.

All the shares from the 30 shares Sensex pack rose.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.9% to Rs 1031.15. The stock came off the day's high of Rs 1038.40. RIL is reportedly likely to make its first big-ticket investment in coal-fired power plants after getting freed recently from its non-compete agreement with the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) that barred it from investing in high-growth sectors.

Shares of oil exploration firms rose as oil prices firmed after data showed pending US home sales rose, boosting optimism about recovery in the world's biggest economy. India's biggest state-run oil exploration firm by revenue Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) rose 2.4%. Cairn India rose 0.36%. India's second biggest oil and gas exploration firm by revenue, Oil India, rose 2.9%. Rise in crude oil prices would result in higher realizations from crude sales for oil exploration firms.

Shares of India's second largest listed cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communications (RCom) rose 6.37% on reports the company was considering a merger with South Africa's MTN group or roping in a strategic foreign investor to fund its foray into 3G services. The stock was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.

The stock had jumped 11.02% on Wednesday on reports United Arab Emirates-based Emirates Telecommunications Corporation (Etisalat) is in advanced talks to buy a 25% stake in Reliance Communications (RCom) for Rs 18,000 crore.

RCom later clarified on Wednesday that it has been receiving various proposals from time to time from reputed international telecom companies expressing interest in acquiring a strategic equity stake in RCom. The company evaluates such proposals in line with the company's policy to constantly endeavor to enhance overall shareholder value, RCom said. The company will comply with all its obligations including timely disclosures at the appropriate time, RCom added.

India's largest listed cellular services provider by sales Bharti Airtel rose 1.22%, extending Wednesday's 5.16% gains. India's third largest listed cellular services provider by sales Idea Cellular Services gained 4.49%, extending Wednesday's 8.97% jump.

Realty stocks gained on fresh buying. Unitech, Ackruti City, DLF, HDIL, Ackruti City, Indiabulls Real Estate, Phoenix Mills rose by between 0.13% to 3.37%.

Metal shares rose on bargain hunting after recent steep slide. Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries, Steel Authority of India, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Jindal Saw and Sesa Goa rose by between 0.35% to 3.3%.

Sterlite Industries rose 2.51% after its ADR gained 6.02% on Wednesday, 2 June 2010.

Banking stocks rose on pick up in credit offtake. Bank credit to businesses and individuals has seen a pick-up of around Rs 5,600 crore while deposits with banks have fallen by nearly Rs 5,000 crore during the fortnight ended 21 May 2010. India's largest bank in terms of branch network State Bank of India rose 1.22%, with the stock gaining for the second straight day. India's largest private sector bank by sales ICICI Bank rose 1.14% to Rs 852.75, with the stock gaining for the second straight day. But, the stock came off the day's high of Rs 858.90. Its ADR rose 3.72% on Wednesday, 2 June 2010.

India's second largest private sector bank by sales HDFC Bank rose 2.76%. Its ADR rose 3.48% on Wednesday, 2 June 2010.

Bank of Baroda jumped 3.52% to Rs 737.60. The stock hit a record high of Rs 748. Punbaj National Bank and Bank of India rose by 1.65% and 1.37% respectively.

IT stocks rose on positive economic data in the US, which is the biggest market for Indian IT firms. India's second largest software services exporter by sales Infosys rose 2%, with the stock gaining for the second straight day. Its ADR rose 3.36% on Wednesday, 2 June 2010. India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS rose 1.16%, with the stock gaining for the second straight day. India's third largest software services exporter by sales Wipro rose 0.84%. Its ADR rose 2.61% on Wednesday, 2 June 2010.

Auto stocks extended recent gains triggered by strong sales in May 2010. India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) gained 1.49%, with the stock surging for the second straight day as auto sales rose 69% to 28,486 units in May 2010 over May 2009.

India's largest small car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India rose 1.5%, with the stock gaining for the third straight day after total sales rose 27.90% to 1,02,175 units in May 2010 over May 2009. The company's domestic sales rose 27.2% to 90,041 units in May 2010 over May 2009. This is highest ever monthly domestic sales. Exports increased 33.5% to 12,134 units in May 2010 over May 2009. The company announced the sales figures during trading hours on 1 June 2010.

India's top truck maker by sales Tata Motors advanced 3.06%, with the stock gaining for the second straight day after reporting 41% growth in vehicle sales in May 2010 over May 2009. Its ADR gained 4.67% on Wednesday, 2 June 2010. The company sold 56,779 units in May 2010 as against 40,196 units sold in May 2009. The company unveiled the monthly sales data after trading hours on Tuesday, 1 June 2010.

India's largest bike maker by sales Hero Honda Motors rose 0.32% after gaining 3.28% on Wednesday on reports the company has raised prices of its products by up to Rs 1,000 with immediate effect due to rising input costs.

Shares of auto part makers jumped after auto sales zoomed in May 2010. Bharat Forge, Bharat Seats, Clutch Auto, Exide Industries, Sona Koyo Steering rose by between 0.92% to 3.89%.

Auto companies reported strong sales in May 2010 and the industry expects consumer demand to sustain following the overall economic expansion.

Cement stocks rose after logging healthy monthly sales growth in May 2010. Jaiprakash Associates rose 1.84% after gaining 2.09% on Wednesday. Cement dispatches jumped 63% to 1.3 million tonnes in May 2010 over May 2009.

ACC rose 1.98%, extending near 1% gains on Wednesday. The company recently said it is setting up a mega cement project of 3 million tonnes per annum at Ghughus in the Chandrapur district of Maharashtra at a cost of about Rs 1500 crore.

UltraTech Cement rose 0.78% after gaining 3.52% on Wednesday. Aditya Birla Group's cement shipments rose 5.5% to 3.3 million tonnes in May 2010 over May 2009. Production rose 5.6% to 3.4 million tonnes. The group has decided to combine its cement operations under UltraTech Cement. The process is expected to be completed by July 2010.

Ambuja Cements advanced 3.86% after gaining 2.99% on Wednesday as cement shipments rose 13.7% to 1.86 million tonnes in May 2010 over May 2009.

Infrastructure stocks gained on fresh buying. Larsen & Toubro, Nagarjuna Construction Company, Hindustan Construction Company and IVRCL Infrastructure rose by between 1.9% to 7.59%.

India's largest power utility firm Reliance Infrastructure rose 1.39%, after gaining 4.03% on Wednesday on reports the company has bagged a project worth Rs 2,960 crore for six-laning the Delhi-Agra highway from the National Highways Authority of India.

FMCG stocks rose on bargain hunting. United Spirits, Dabur India, ITC, Hindustan Unilever rose by between 0.13% to 4.02%.

India's largest power producer by sales, NTPC, rose 2.08% on reports the company is set to acquire controlling interest in a 720-million-tonne coal field in Australia in a deal valued at $1-1.5 billion, which will enable it to fire about 3,500 megawatts (mw) of power capacity.

Cals Refineries clocked the highest volume of 3.44 crore shares on BSE. FCS Software (1.54 crore shares), Reliance Communications (82.40 lakh shares), IFCI (78.39 lakh shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (65.54 lakh shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Sesa Goa clocked the highest turnover of Rs 142.49 crore on BSE. Reliance Communications (Rs 135.50 crore), Tata Steel (Rs 119.01 crore), Havells India (Rs 98.38 crore) and State Bank of India (Rs 83.70 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.