Positive global cues may trigger a firm start

The market is likely to open higher after a long weekend supported by positive global cues. US markets settled at 18-month highs on Thursday, 1 April 2010 following upbeat jobs data. Equity market remained closed on Friday, 2 April 2010, on account of Good Friday. The S&P CNX Nifty futures for April 2010 expiry were up 32 points in Singapore. Also the upgrade from International Monetary Fund would lift sentiment.

Stock-specific action may rule the roost in the near term based on expectations of Q4 March 2010 results. IT bellwether Infosys kickstarts the reporting season on 13 April 2010.

Asian markets edged higher on Monday as US jobs data fuelled hopes of a smart recovery. Key benchmark indices in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea were up by between 0.16% to 2.29%.

US markets advanced on Thursday, 1 April 2010 on upbeat economic data. However, anxiety about March payrolls report scheduled to be released 2 April 2010 and profit booking before the long Easter weekend, capped gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 70.44 points, or 0.65%, to 10,927.07. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 8.67 points, or 0.74%, to 1,178.10 and the Nasdaq Composite index added 4.62 points, or 0.19%, to 2,402.58.

An index of US manufacturing activity in March 2010 rose to its highest level in over five-and-half years, the Institute for Supply Management said. Earlier, a US Labour Department report showed initial weekly claims for jobless benefits fell more than expected.

US employers created jobs in March 2010 at the fastest rate in three years, the strongest signal yet that the US recovery is on a solid footing. US nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in March, the largest since March 2007, and only the third time payrolls have increased since the recession hit in late 2007. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7% for a third straight month, the Labor Department said on Friday.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could rise 47 points at the opening bell on Monday, 5 April 2010.

The world economy could grow 4.1% this year, 0.2 points more than previously forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in the latest draft during the weekend of its World Economic Outlook. The U.S. economy is now expected to grow 3% this year, instead of the 2.7% forecast in the IMF's January report. The IMF is due to publish its next World Economic Outlook on 21 April 2010.

According to the draft, euro zone growth this year is now forecast to be 0.8%, down 0.1 points from January's estimate. In 2011, the figure is seen at 1.5%, also down 0.1 points, the reports said.

Equity markets remained closed in the US and Europe on Friday, 2 April 2010, for the Easter holiday with European equity markets also remaining closed on Monday, 5 April 2010.

Back home auto stocks – Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors and Hero Honda Motors may see action following release of March 2010 monthly sales figures. Cement stocks may hog limelight post release of March 2010 monthly sales figures. Steel stocks may be in demand after they reportedly hiked prices on increase in input costs.

Food price index rose 16.35% in the year to 20 March 2010, higher than an annual rise of 16.22% in the previous week, government data showed on Thursday. The fuel price index rose 12.75%, higher than an annual rise of 12.68% in the previous week. Fuel costs have risen following a hike in domestic fuel prices and an upswing in world crude prices. The primary articles index was up 13.86% in the year to 20 March 2010.

India's manufacturing growth slowed down in March 2010, dropping from a 20-month-record in February 2010, as mounting cost pressures took a toll on expansion in output, a survey released on Thursday showed. The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers' Index , based on a survey of 500 companies, fell to 57.8 in March 2010 from 58.5 in February 2010, which was the strongest since June 2008. A reading above 50 means activity is expanding. The new orders index fell to 62.7 in March from 64 in February

Industrial output in February is expected to have grown 16% year-on-year, Industry Secretary said on Wednesday. The output in January grew an annual 16.7%.

Foreign direct investment rose 15.4% to $1.72 billion in February 2010 over February 2009, government said Wednesday.

Exports in February grew 34.8% on year to $16.09 billion, Trade Minister Anand Sharma said on Wednesday. Exports are expected to grow 15-20% in the year that starts on 1 April 2010, Sharma said. Imports, too, maintained momentum growing by 66% to $25 billion underscoring the strong revival in the domestic economy.

The government announced a fresh package of incentives for exporters of garments, engineering, electronics and agro products to select markets where demand for the products is yet to pick up. The sops, which will be doled out from Thursday, will be available for six months and are expected to cost the government Rs 625 crore.

The prime minister promised on Thursday to launch a guarantee of free elementary education, in a fresh sign the government was focusing on big-ticket programmes to consolidate its rural and poor voters.

The BSE Sensex vaulted 7,819.27 points or 80.5% in the year ended March 2010 (FY 2010) helped by heavy purchases by foreign institutional investors. Indian companied raised over Rs 47,800 crore through public offers during the fiscal 2009-2010, following buoyant secondary market.

Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's, last month, revised the outlook on India to stable from negative due to improved government finances.

The forecast for the southwest monsoon for 2010 is the next major trigger for the market. Good rains this year after last year's drought will boost farm output and rural incomes. But another monsoon failure will add to inflationary pressure which in turn may hamper the current strong economic rebound.

Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change has predicted normal monsoon rains in India for the current year. Agriculture secretary Prabeer Kumar Basu had also told media in Delhi last week that the monsoon rains for the year will be normal. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issues a monsoon forecast, usually in the second half of April after considering weather observations in different parts of the world and extrapolating statistical data.

A weakening El Nino is a positive sign for the monsoon, Ajit Tyagi, director general at the India Meteorological Department, said on 18 March 2010. The cyclical heating of the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino will continue to fade, US forecasters said this month. The weather event, which occurs every four to seven years, brings more rain to South America and less precipitation to Asia.

Build-up of fresh positions on the first day of the new financial year helped the key benchmark indices snap a two-day slide. Markets across the globe logged on decent gains. The BSE 30-share Sensex advanced 164.85 points or 0.94% to 17,692.62 and the S&P CNX Nifty rose 41.40 points or 0.79% to 5290.50

Foreign funds bought shares worth Rs 106.40 crore and domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 452.33 crore on Thursday, 1 April 2010, as per provisional data.

As per data from the stock exchanges, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought stocks worth a net Rs 14,792.31 crore in March 2010.