Search Now

Recommendations

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Worth the risk!


Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.

Optimism among global investors has returned to the pre-financial crisis levels, says a recent fund manager survey adding that investors are taking on above-average risk for the first time since 2006.

We expect a positive start today, thanks to the overnight rally on Wall Street. Things may turn sideways and lackluster as the day wears on. Taking a broad call on the market as of now is not warranted given the murky outlook and the fact that we are still in the middle of the earnings season.

Derivatives indicators are pointing to a slight weakness though a big crash is not on the cards. The near-term range for the Nifty could prevail at 5200-5300. However, there is no guarantee that 5180 will not be broken. A big positive move out of the current range will be possible, provided the global cues remain healthy and the RBI doesn’t spring a negative surprise.

Wipro's Q3 consolidated revenue have come in at Rs69.66bn while net profit is at Rs12.17bn. TVS topline is likely to rise 25% YoY. Yes Bank NII is likely to grow 48% YoY while PAT will rise 15% YoY.

Results Today: Dr. Reddy's, Gayatri Projects, HDFC, HDIL, ICRA, JK Tyre, JSW Steel, Kingfisher Airlines, Kirloskar Bros, KPIT Cummins, Mahindra Holidays, Mahindra Lifespaces, Mukand, Nitin Fire, Polaris, Praj Industries, Radico Khaitan, Raymond, Sun TV, Triveni Engineering, TV 18, TVS Motor, Wipro and Yes Bank.

Asian markets are trading mixed. US stock indices hit a new 15-month high, spurred by gains in healthcare shares. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have established support at their 2009 peaks, suggesting bullish momentum is not waning just yet. European shares rose, buoyed by strength in Cadbury, pharma and telecom shares.

Meanwhile, UK CPI data raises the specter of inflation. Sterling was among the few currencies to rise against the dollar and the yen after UK inflation jumped in December.

IBM has issued a quarterly forecast and results that have surpassed Wall Street's expectations, but the stock is down in extended trading.

China’s flood of economic data due out on Thursday, including the latest GDP figures that are expected to be well above 10%, may offer clues as to when Beijing will begin hitting the brakes on its speeding economy.

After being in the positive zone till early afternoon, the bulls seemed to lose their grip on the proceedings after that. The sharp and swift slide was led by intense offloading in the Realty, IT and Telecom stocks. Weak cues from the European markets further dampened the sentiment in the second half.

However, stock specific action was seen across the board, especially in the PSU space on account of the disinvestment buzz. Hindustan Copper, ITI and NMDC were among the notables gainers among the PSUs.

Oil PSUs were also in the thick of things after the Finance Ministry disbursed ~Rs120bn in cash to the state owned oil marketing firms for selling fuel below the cost.

The BSE Sensex was down 155 points to end at 17,486 after touching a high of 17,664 and a low of 17,463. The Nifty was down 49 points to end at 5,226.

Equity markets in Asia ended mixed. The Nikkei in Japan was down 0.9%, while Australia's S&P/ASX ended lower by 1%. The Shanghai SE Composite was up 0.3% and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong ended higher by 1%.

In Europe, stocks were trading in the red. The DAX in Germany was down 0.9% and the CAC 40 index in France was down 0.9%. The FTSE in the UK fell 1%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Realty index was the top loser, shedding 1.8%, followed by the IT index that was down 1.7% and the BSE Teck index was down 1.5%. The BSE Mid-Cap index ended lower by 0.6% while BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.6%.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 23 stocks ended in the negative terrain and 7 ended in the green. ACC, Hindalco, TCS, Grasim, RCom and JP Associates were among the top losers.

Bucking the negative trend were, BHEL, SBI, HDFC Bank and Sterlite were among the top gainers.

Outside the frontline indices, the big losers in the broader market were PTC India, Renuka Sugar, Praj Ind and Apollo Hospitals. On the other hand, gainers included Hindustan Copper, RCF, NMDC, Jai Corp and Yes Bank.

Shares of Reliance Capital pared gains and ended in lower by 1% to end at Rs906. The stock hit an intra-day high of Rs929.25 after reports stated that the company plans to sell up to 20% in its Reliance Mutual Fund unit to a strategic overseas partner.

Reports also added that, Reliance Capital is likely to appoint investment banks JP Morgan Chase & Co. and UBS AG as advisors to the transaction.

The state owned refining companies hogged the limelight after media reports stated that the government has disbursed ~Rs120bn as cash subsidy to the companies for selling kerosene and cooking gas below cost for the nine months ended Dec. 31.

According to reports, IOC was disbursed Rs70bn, while HPCL and BPCL were compensated with a combined amount of Rs50bn.

Shares of IOC erased gains and ended lower by 2% to Rs318, HPCL also lost ground and ended lower by 3% to end at Rs376 and BPCL fell 2% to end at Rs605.

Shares of eClerx Services surged by over 2.5% to end at Rs494 after the company announced that board of directors will meet on January 28, 2010, to consider a proposal to form a subsidiary overseas. The scrip opened at Rs478 it touched an intra-day high of Rs508 and a low of Rs473 and recorded volumes of over 26,000 shares on BSE.

McNally Bharat announced that it signed an exclusive technical partnership agreement with Hiflux Ltd, Singapore for constructing Sea Water Desalination, Water and Waste Water Plant in Industrial, Municipal and Agricultural Sector within the geographical territory or India.

Shares of McNally Bharat advanced by 2.5% to end at Rs278. The scrip opened at Rs274 it touched an intra-day high of Rs289 and a low of Rs270 and recorded volumes of over 77,000 shares on BSE.

BGR Energy announced that the environmental engineering division of the company has secured a contract for Design, Engineering, Supply, Erection and Commissioning of large "Total Water System" from Adhunik Power & Natural Resources Ltd, Jharkhand, for its 2 x 270 MW Super Thermal Power Plant.

The stock ended lower by 2.5% to end at Rs530, the scrip opened at Rs549 it touched an intra-day high of Rs560 and a low of Rs527 and recorded volumes of over 0.13mn shares on BSE.