Weekly Technical Analysis - Jan 17 2010

The markets continued to display range-bound movement for yet another week. The Sensex touched a high of 17,777, but steadily moved lower to 17,276. The index finally closed the week with a nominal gain of 14 points at 17,554.

IT stocks, thanks to better-than-expected Infosys numbers, outperformed this week. TCS zoomed 13 per cent to Rs 792. Wipro surged nearly 10 per cent, and Infosys rallied nearly 9 per cent. ACC, Grasim and Reliance Communications were the other prominent gainers. SBI, on the other hand, was the major loser, down over 6 per cent at Rs 2,144. Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Sterlite, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Infrastructure, Sun Pharma and HDFC were the other major losers.

The Sensex has not given any clear indication as of now. The index is currently moving in a 600-point band of 17,255-17,830. A breakout at the lower end of the range could see the index slip to 17,100-16,990-16,875. Whereas the upward breakout could see the index move to 17,940-18,055.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 131 points, from a high of 5,301, the index slipped to a low of 5,170. Last week, we had mentioned key support at 5,180. The index just rebounded around this particular level. There seems to be a limited upside from the current levels. 5,300 is likely to act as a significant resistance, followed by 5,340. On the downside, the index may find support around 5,200-5,170. A breakout below 5,170 could see the index fall to 5,085.

The momentum indicators are currently in favour of some more downsides. The nine-day Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic Slow are trending downwards. Also the Moving Average Convergence Divergence is on verge of turning bearish. However, one should wait for a clear breakout for any directional view on the indices.