You live and learn. At any rate, you live.
There is no time to live with the gains of yesterday. A positive close came in after six successive days of losses. The little smiles could get wiped out early this morning as most global markets are down. Asian stock markets got off to a shaky start after the overnight fall on Wall Street. However, the Shanghai Composite has recovered and is trading just in the green.
We expect a weak start and the Nifty could slip below 4800. Hopefully, some semblance of buying will give support; else the Nifty could drop to as low as 4650-4680. Resistance is expected between 4900 and 4950. We do not rule out the possibility of a rebound above 5000, if the RBI hikes only the CRR and if the global mood changes for the better in coming sessions.
Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to global jitters and relentless selling by the FIIs. The spate of primary market issues, especially from the Government could also cause a few temporary hiccups. Going further ahead, speculation over the Budget will take precedence and one hopes the UPA doesn’t disappoint this time.
Results Today: Aditya Birla Nuvo, Alok Industries, Amtek Auto, Amtek India, Anant Raj Industries, Apollo Tyres, Arvind, Balrampur Chini, BEML, BEL, Bhushan Steel, Bombay Rayon, Chennai Petro, Cinemax, Deccan Chronicle, Divi's Lab, Educomp, Essar Shipping, Essel Propack, FT, Gateway Distriparks, GHCL, Gillette India, Glenmark Pharma, GE Shipping, GTL, GNFC, Gulf Oil, IOC, Kalpataru Power, Karnataka Bank, Karur Vysya Bank, Lupin, Man Industries, Max India, MMTC, MTNL, Moser Baer, NFL, Nirma, NTPC, Oracle Financial, Orchid Chemical, Panacea Biotec, PFC, P&G, PTC India, RCF, Reliance Infra, RNRL, RPower, Siemens, Simplex Projects, Simplex Infra, Sobha Developers, Sun Pharma, Sundram Fasteners, Tanla, Tata Chemicals, Tata Comm, Tata Motors and Titan.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Thursday at Rs28.13bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net buyers of Rs19.79bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs20.68bn. As per the SEBI figures, FIIs were net sellers of Rs19.19bn in the cash segment on Wednesday.
Global investors hit 2010’s first wall of worry during late January as gloomy earnings forecasts, angst about China’s monetary tightening and the deteriorating finances of countries ranging from Greece to Japan triggered a global selloff of equities and, to a lesser extent, the riskier debt classes. Fund flows for the week ending Jan. 27 mirrored this uncertainty and flight to safety, with outflows from several major equity fund groups hitting multi-week highs.
Emerging Market Equity Funds posted their first week of net outflows in 12 weeks. BRIC Equity Funds saw net redemptions for the first time since early September. China Equity Funds saw their first inflows since mid-December.
Overall, investors pulled over $9 billion out of EPFR Global-tracked Equity Funds while committing $4.8 billion to all Bond Funds tracked.
Meanwhile, US Senate has cleared the way to confirm Ben S. Bernanke for the Second Term as the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
The BSE Sensex ended at 16,306.87, up 17 points or 0.1% from the previous close. It touched a high of 16,524.69 and a low of 16,182.14
The worst of the storm is over, US President Barack Obama said in his maiden State of the Union Address on Wednesday. Those soothing words, along with the Federal Reserve's move to maintain status quo on its monetary policy helped most global markets recover from the recent sell-off.
Unfortunately, the Indian market was caught in a whirlwind of F&O expiry and jitters ahead of tomorrow's RBI meet even as food inflation snapped a three-week losing streak and results continued to pour in. The turnover hit a new record high of Rs1.9 lakh crores, partly due to the derivative settlement.
At the end of a highly volatile day, the BSE Sensex ended at 16,306.87, up 17 points or 0.1% from the previous close. It touched a high of 16,524.69 and a low of 16,182.14. That translates into an intra-day swing of about 340 points.
The NSE Nifty closed at 4867.25, up 0.3% over the last close. It touched a high of 4929.90 and a low of 4824.95.
Even the broader market finished mixed, with the BSE Small-Cap index down 0.2% and the BSE Mid-Cap index up 0.2%.
In terms of the sectors, the ones that took the biggest hit in Wednesday's drubbing rallied today. Real Estate and Metals were among the top three sectoral winners today, along with Pharma. BSE indices for Banking, Power, Oil & Gas, IT, Auto and PSU also rose.
Within the Sensex, the notable gainers were Tata Steel, Wipro, DLF, Sun Pharma, HDFC and Grasim. Among the other gainers were Maruti, M&M and Reliance Industries.
Bucking the positive trend were stocks like Bharti Airtel, RCOM, L&T, Jaiprakash Associates, Hindustan Unilever, ACC and Hindalco.
Outside the main indices, the leading gainers were OBC, Cals Refinery, Crompton Greaves, Karuturi Global, Max India, BOB, Torrent Power, Tube Investment, Gujarat NRE Coke, Geodesic, Pantaloon Retail, Koutons Retail, Torrent Pharma, AIA Engineering, Bharat Forge and Sintex Industries.
The big losers in the broader market included the likes of Aban Offshore, Indo Tech Transformers, Cranes Software, Deccan Chronicle, NALCO, Everest Kanto, IOB, Praj Industries, Essar Shipping, Kalpataru Power and Subex.
A firm trend across Asia and the overnight advance on Wall Street were the major driving force behind today's rebound. Things appeared to stabilise a bit today globally after the recent stormy sessions.
Volatility escalated due to the F&O expiry as also due to the near-term uncertainties over the outcome of the RBI policy meeting and global developments. The Nifty crossed 4900 but could not sustain above that level. The Nifty will find it tough to surpass 5000 unless FIIs turn buyers again and global mood improves.
FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Wednesday at Rs22.12bn on a provisional basis. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs7.49bn. As per the SEBI figures, FIIs were net sellers of Rs9bn in the cash segment on Monday.
The RBI is expected to hike CRR at its policy meeting tomorrow, though there are a few analysts who expect a small increase in the reverse repo rate as well. What the central bank says in its outlook for the coming quarters will be keenly followed. The market could stage a meaningful recovery if the RBI does not spring a nasty surprise.