Crude stays below $80

Prices drop following disappointing batch of economic data

Crude oil prices ended lower for fourth straight day on Thursday, 14 January 2010. Prices fell following disappointing batch of economic data spurring concerns about demand for oil in coming months. Prices also slipped as energy department reported yesterday in its latest weekly inventory report more than expected buildup in crude inventories for last week.

On Thursday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for February delivery closed at $79.29/barrel (lower by $0.26 or 0.3%). Crude ended last week higher by 4.3%. On a year to date basis till date, crude is lower by 0.3%.

Crude ended FY 2009 higher by 78%, the highest yearly gain since 1999. It reached a high of $82 earlier in October 2009 and hit a low of $33.98 on 12 February 2009. Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 44% since then. Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.

In the currency market on Thursday, the dollar index, which weighs the strength of dollar against the basket of six other currencies erased earlier gains and fell by almost 0.1%.

The Commerce Department in US reported on Thursday, 14 January 2010 that U.S. retail sales was disappointing in December, falling a seasonally adjusted 0.3% on widespread weakness across different kinds of stores. The decline was unexpected. Market was forecasting a 0.5% gain.

Separately, the Labor Department in US reported on Thursday, 14 January 2010 that first-time jobless claims rose last week by the largest amount in five weeks. Initial claims rose by 11,000 to 444,000 in the week ended 9 January 2010. This was the highest level since mid-December.

The EIA reported yesterday that crude-oil supplies rose by 3.7 million barrels in the week ended 8 January, 2009. Market was expecting a buildup of 1.9-million-barrel increase. The report also showed that U.S. distillate inventories were up 1.4 million barrels.

Earlier during the week, in its monthly short-term outlook, EIA reported that West Texas crude-oil prices, which averaged about $62 a barrel last year, will average about $79.83 this year and about $83.5 in 2011. Prices should average $77 in the first quarter and $85 in the fourth quarter this year. The forecast assumes U.S. growth of 2% this year and 2.7% in 2011. In its December outlook, the EIA forecast that world oil consumption will grow in 2010 by 1.1 million barrels a day to put the total daily figure at 85.2 million barrels.

Also on Thursday, natural gas for February delivery slumped 14 cents, or 2.4%, to $5.73 per British thermal units. The Energy Information Administration reported a drop of 266 billion cubic feet in storage of natural gas for last week, slightly more than expected.

At the MCX, crude oil for January delivery closed Rs 16 (0.3%) lower at Rs 3,634/barrel. Natural gas for January delivery closed lower by Rs 9.7 (3.7%) at Rs 252.1/mmbtu.