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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

No storm on the bourses!


The wise man in the storm prays to God, not for safety from danger, but deliverance from fear.

Climate change has been an issue gaining center-stage. Fears are that a ‘deep depression’ over the Arabian Sea is expected to turn into a cyclone. Unusual winter showers may give a few people the chill, but there are no signs of any big storm hitting the market as yet. Today we expect a cautious opening. Technically, the immediate support could kick in at around 4800-4820 while 4950 remains a tough resistance to crack.

Global cues are not offering a firm trend. There could be some more cooling as the market awaits the next batch of positive news – both from the economy and corporates. Withdrawal of stimulus measures would be a big test. Inflation too is gradually picking up and interest rates can only go up from here.

The market is set to remain sideways with mostly a positive bias. The overall undertone will remain at the mercy of overseas flows and global developments. Stick to a measured and stock centric approach. You can’t prevent a storm, but you could certainly ensure your safety.

FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Tuesday at Rs2.59bn on a provisional basis. The local funds were net buyers of Rs1.82bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs6.57bn. On Monday, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs6.49bn in the cash segment. FIIs' net investments in Indian stocks this year is above $14.5bn.

US stocks ended mixed on Tuesday, giving up some gains, as the market faltered after a triple-digit rally in the previous session. The pullback after a day of choppy trade showed that investors are cautious as the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched a 13 month high on Monday.

After reversing several times, the Dow closed up 20 points, or 0.2%, to close at 10,246.97. The S&P 500 closed virtually unchanged at 1,093.01, and the Nasdaq Composite index fell 3 points, or 0.1%, to 2,151.08.

Monday's rally came after the Group of 20 (G20) said over the weekend that it would keep economic stimulus in place. Monday's rally was the Dow's third gain of more than 199 points in the past eight trading days. But despite roaring back from its March nadir the Dow is still 28% below the record high set in October 2007.

A falling dollar boosted prices for gold, oil and other commodities. Investors will focus on these markets in the absence of major economic reports as well as corporate news, including earnings from Applied Materials, Wal-Mart and Walt Disney.

The Dow has soared 56% after hitting a 12-year low in March, and the blue-chip index is up 16.5% for all of 2009. The Nasdaq has jumped 36.6% this year.

Most US cities saw gains in the median price of single-family homes sold last quarter, said a report from the National Association of Realtors. The national median home price was $177,900 in the third quarter, up $7,000 from the previous quarter.

In other housing news, the Treasury Department said that 650,000 troubled borrowers have been put into trial loan modifications under the Obama administration's foreclosure rescue plan.

Sprint Nextel said that it plans to cut between 2,000 and 2,500 jobs in an attempt to reduce costs.

The European Commission has objected to Oracle's proposed takeover of Sun Microsystems, which could threaten the deal.

The dollar rose off 15-month lows, jumping slightly against the euro and the British pound. The greenback inched up on the Japanese yen.

The price of US crude oil fell 38 cents to settle at $79.05 a barrel.

Treasurys were steady, after a record $25 billion offering of 10-year notes attracted strong demand. The 10-year yield fell to 3.47% from 3.48% late on Monday. The government is selling $81 billion worth of debt this week in a quarterly refunding. Treasury will auction $16 billion in 30-year bonds later in the week.

Weakness in auto shares offset gains for banking giant HSBC in Europe, as the broader market failed to extend sharp gains from the previous session. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 0.2% to close at 245.31.

UK's FTSE 100 index slipped 0.1% to 5,230.55, while Germany's DAX index declined 0.1% to close at 5,613.20. The French CAC-40 index eked out a gain of 0.10 point to finish at 3,785.59.

Volkswagen preferred shares tumbled 15.8% after Qatar Holding sold 25 million shares in the German carmaker. Porsche Automobil Holding lost 3.7%.

Dalal Street witnessed a Tuesday twister today. After starting off on another positive note, the Indian market ended in the red amid high volatility, snapping its four day winning streak. High beta space like Real Estate bore the brunt of the selloff. Even the relatively safe haven IT stocks and telecom heavyweights like Bharti and RCOM came under pressure.

The slide was seen despite the Dow hitting new highs. In Asia as well markets ended in the positive terrain and Europe also started off with smart gains.

Technically, the Nifty managed to stay above the medium term trendline for the second day running. However, the index closed below the 50 Day moving average (at 4,889).

The BSE Sensex was down 58 points at 16,440 after touching a high of 16,677 and a low of 16,372. The index opened at 16,552 against the previous close of 16,498. The NSE Nifty was down 17 points to shut shop at 4,881.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan was up 0.6%, while Australia's S&P/ASX ended higher by 1.3% at 4,674. Shanghai SE Composite was flat and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong added 0.3%.

In Europe, stocks were trading with smart gains. The FTSE in the UK was up 0.3%, The DAX in Germany was up 0.4% and the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.3%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Realty index was the top loser, shedding 3%, followed by the Teck index that was down 1.3% and the BSE Capital Goods index was down 0.8%.

Even the BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.4% and the BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.4%.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 22 stocks ended in the red and 8 ended in the positive terrain. Bharti Airtel, DLF, RCom, Hero Honda and Maruti were among the top losers.

On the other hand, among the major gainers were Tata Motors, SBI, Reliance Industries, Sterlite and ICICI Bank.

Outside the frontline indices, the big losers in the broader market were Educomp, Indiabulls Real Estate, Central Bank, Aban and Sintex Ind. On the other hand, gainers included NMDC, Jai Corp, Exide Ind, Hind Copper and Cummins India.

RNRL announced that the rumors of an imminent out-of-court settlement with RIL on the gas supply dispute are completely baseless and speculative. In addition, Reliance Industries also clarified saying that the out-of-court settlement was untrue and baseless. Reliance Industries also announced that it found oil in a block in the western state of Gujarat and was assessing the commercial viability of the discovery.

Shares of RNRL gained by 2% to Rs73.45. The stock opened at Rs73.2 and made an intra-day high of Rs76.5 and a low of Rs73.1. Total traded volumes stood at 1.15mn shares.

While, shares of Reliance Industries advanced by 1.4% to end at Rs2052. The stock opened at Rs2035 and made an intra-day high of Rs2100 and a low of Rs2007. Total traded volumes stood at 1.3mn shares.

Shares of Alstom Projects gained by 1.5% to Rs529.45 after the Company announced that it won contracts worth Rs3.65bn from Hindalco Industries for supply & installation of four gas treatment plants in India.

Shares of NMDC were locked at 20% upper circuit to end at Rs433.7 after the steel ministry said it will initiate next month a plan to sell a stake in the company.

The government, which owns 98.38% of the company, aims to sell an 8.38% stake as part of a plan to cut holdings in its profitable companies to 90%. The government may raise Rs256bn from its divestment program, according to reports.

Siemens announced that its energy sector has received an order for Rs6.08bn from Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa), Doha, Qatar for the complete supply, design, erection, testing and commissioning of 132kV & 66kV High Voltage Cables. This Order is required to be completed over a period of 2 years.

Shares of NTPC edged higher by 0.5% to end at Rs211.8 after the company announced that it signed MoU with Government of Madhya Pradesh for setting up of 4x660 MW coal based thermal power project in Narsingpur District, Madhya Pradesh.

The stock opened at Rs214 and made an intra-day high of Rs214 and a low of Rs210. Total traded volumes stood at 0.4mn shares.

Nagarjuna Construction said it secured five orders worth Rs7.22bn from Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board and Water Resources Department, Bihar for construction of Bituminous Road.

The stock opened at Rs171 and made an intra-day high of Rs171.5 and a low of Rs163. Total traded volumes stood at 0.44mn shares.