Technical Analysis - Reliance, ONGC, SBI

Reliance Industries

RIL bounced higher in the early part of the week in line with our expectation but it could not surpass the first resistance at Rs 2,120 and moved sideways with a slight negative bias thereafter. Short-term resistances remain at Rs 2,120 and Rs 2,267 for the next week. Failure to clear these levels would imply that the stock can decline towards Rs 1,900 or Rs 1,800 in the near-term. Target above Rs 2,267 is Rs 2,490.

We remain circumspect about the medium-term view for the stock as long as it trades under Rs 2,267. Medium-term target for the stock is Rs 1,750 and Rs 1,522. Short-term traders can therefore initiate fresh shorts if the stock fails to move above Rs 2,267 on Monday.

State Bank of India (Rs 1,810.6)

SBI moved sideways with a positive bias last week and recorded an intra-week peak of Rs 1,820 on Friday. As explained earlier, a strong close above Rs 1,815 is required to make the short-term view positive. If the stock soars higher on Monday to a strong close, it would give the next target at Rs 1,935. Conversely, a strong decline below Rs 1,750 will imply that the medium-term down-trend has resumed that can take the stock lower to Rs 1,600 or Rs 1,500 in the near-term.

Medium-term view for the stock stays negative as long as it trades below Rs 1,900.

Tata Steel (Rs 438.3)

Tata Steel held above the support at Rs 380 in the early part of the week before moving sharply higher to Rs 442 by Friday. Key short-term resistance for the stock is at Rs 455. The stock needs to move beyond this level to attain the previous peak at Rs 496. Failure to move above Rs 455 will imply an impending decline to Rs 370 or Rs 326. The area around Rs 350 where the 200-day moving average is positioned will also be an important medium-term support in declines.

Key medium-term resistance for the stock is at Rs 460. The stock is currently struggling to move beyond this level. If it succeeds in doing so, next target would be Rs 557.

Infosys (Rs 1,800.9)

Infosys moved sideways last week in the range between Rs 1,750 and Rs 1,830. The medium-term uptrend from the February low of Rs 1,146 continues to be in force. But as explained earlier, the stock faces key intermediate resistance from the zone between Rs 1,850 and Rs 1,900. A downward reversal from here will pull the stock towards Rs 1,400 whereas a strong move above Rs 1,900 will make the long-term outlook positive again for the stock.

ONGC (Rs 1,134.6)

ONGC is also at crossroads. The stock is pausing near the key short-term resistance of Rs 1,130. A strong move above this level will take it to the former peak at Rs 1,219. But a reversal from here can pull the stock lower to Rs 990 again. The stock has strong medium- term support around this level and breach of this support will take ONGC lower to Rs 920 or Rs 850.

Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,056.8)

MSIL continues to be in a strong medium-term uptrend and this view will be negated only on a weekly close below Rs 950. The short-term trend in the stock is, however, down and it can decline to Rs 1,015 or Rs 980 in the days ahead. Resistances for the week would be at Rs 1080 and Rs 1,120

via BL