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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

No emotions on the Street!


They may forget what you said, but they will never forget how you made them feel.

An emotionally charged speech by Anil Ambani partly overshadowed the RBI’s Q1 review, which by the way held no surprises. We will only say that we haven’t heard the last word on the RIL-RNRL matter. Though the Supreme Court’s verdict should be binding, one cannot rule out surprises.

Coming to the RBI, the central bank sees an upward bias to growth. At the same time, it warns of an inflation spike in the second half of FY10. It is amply clear that interest rates have bottomed out and will head higher in step with the economic recovery. One will have to keep an eye on the trend in inflation, both locally and globally.

As far as markets are concerned, looks like the bulls are suffering from fatigue after a two-week rally. Even the global markets have turned insipid. Today again, we are likely to witness a lackluster and choppy day after a cautious start. On the eve of the F&O expiry, any decisive move looks unlikely. Besides, a plethora of results are in the pipeline over the next 2-3 days.

Results Today: Ackruti, AV Birla Nuvo, Alfa Laval, Alok Industries, Balaji Telefilms, Bank of Rajasthan, BPL, Cairn India, Cipla, Corporation Bank, Cummins India, EID Parry, Elder Pharma, Future Capital, GSK Consumer, Godrej Industries, Great Offshore, Hero Honda, Hexaware, HPCL, HDIL, IOB, Indraprastha Gas, IRB Infra, IVR Prime, IVRCL Infra, Jindal Steel, Kalpataru Power, Lanco Infra, Lupin, Matrix Labs, NIIT, NIIT Tech, Nirma, NMDC, Noida Toll, Patni, Power Grid, PNB, RNRL, Reliance Power, Sesa Goa, Shipping Corp., Shoppers Stop, Sobha Developers, Sterlite Industries, Sun Pharma, Sun TV, Tata Elxsi, Tata Steel, Torrent Pharma and United Spirits.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs587.6mn in the cash segment on Tuesday on a provisional basis while the local funds pumped in Rs4.48bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs6.7bn. On Monday, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs4.46bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net sellers on the same day at Rs1.77bn.

US stocks ended mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report and a better-than-expected housing report in the aftermath of a big rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12 points, or 0.1%, to 9,096.72. The S&P 500 index fell almost 3 points, or 0.3%, to 979.62. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 7 points, or 0.4%, to 1,975.51.

US stocks have gained for the last two weeks on the back of stronger than expected second-quarter results. The Dow and S&P 500 have added around 11.5% and the Nasdaq has gained 12%. But after such a big run, stocks have become vulnerable to some profit taking.

Consumer confidence slipped for the second straight month, the Conference Board reported, as growing joblessness and a prolonged recession took a toll on investor psychology. The index dipped to 46.6 in July from 49.3 in June. Economists thought the index would slip to 49.

As a result of growing joblessness and weak consumer confidence, spending by consumers is likely to remain sluggish. That doesn't bode well for GDP growth, which drives two-thirds of consumer spending.

On Friday, the US government will release the initial reading on second-quarter GDP. The report is expected to show that GDP shrank at a 1.5% pace, according to economists, after shrinking at a 5.5% pace in the first quarter. The slower pace may signal better times are on the horizon.

On a more positive note, a key measure of home prices showed its first monthly increase in three years. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 0.5% in May. The index dropped 17.1% versus a year ago, short of forecasts for a bigger drop of 17.9%. It was the fourth month in a row that the pace of declines lessened. On Monday, another report showed sales of new homes rose more than expected in May.

The three-week rally that’s sent a measure of homebuilder stocks toward a seven-month high is signaling an end to the worst housing downturn since the 1930s, according to John Murphy, chief technical analyst at StockCharts.com.

Valero Energy reported weaker revenue and earnings that topped estimates. Shares fell 2.4%. It was one of several oil services companies tumbling, along with the price of crude. Dow components Chevron and Exxon Mobil both declined modestly. The Amex Oil index fell 1.4%.

US light crude oil for September delivery fell $1.15 to settle at $67.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bank of America shares gained after the company said it plans to reduce some of its 6,100 branch network. Reports said it planned to cut as much as 10% of the network, but the bank said the figure was smaller.

In deal news, IBM said it will buy Chicago-based business software maker SPSS in an all-cash deal worth $50 per share or $1.2 billion.

Sprint Nextel will buy the remaining 87% of Virgin Mobil it doesn't already own in an all-stock deal worth $5.50 per share or $483 million.

Media conglomerate Viacom reported weaker quarterly profit that nonetheless topped expectations.

This week is the biggest for corporate results, with 146 of the S&P 500 due to release reports. So far, 77% of reported earnings have topped forecasts, versus the long-term average of 61%, according to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters.

Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.70% from 3.72% late on Monday.

The two-year notes declined after a $42 billion auction did not generate as much interest as the prior month's two-year note auction.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and fell against the Japanese yen.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $14.60 to settle at $941.70.

Sprint Nextel, Time Warner and ConocoPhillips are all due to report results on Wednesday morning.

The June durable goods orders report is also due Wednesday morning, along with the weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration. In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve releases its periodic "Beige Book" report on economic activity in its 12 districts.

European shares were unable to extend their recent bull run, ending mostly lower, as investors took stock of mixed earnings from the likes of Deutsche Bank, BP, EADS and BBVA. After showing mild gains early in the session, the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index turned lower to close at 218.54, down 0.9%.

UK's FTSE 100 index fell 1.3% to close at 4,528.84, snapping an 11-session winning streak. The German DAX index traded down 1.5% to end at 5174.74, while the French CAC-40 index dropped 1.2% to settle at 3,330.97.

Indian markets ended on a flat note for the second straight trading session as key indices were unable to stage a linear one-way movement in either direction. Subdued cues from international equity markets also played a spoilsport for the bulls on Tuesday.

In addition, the NSE Nifty once again faced stiff resistance at the 4,600 level which has acted a hurdle for the index in the past. Having said that, the broader market was in action indeed as the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap index both ended higher by 1.5% each.

Monetary policy review also turned out to be a non event, as expected, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept all policy rates unchanged, as it seeks to bolster economic growth amid persistent worries over the precarious global situation.

The Realty, Auto, Metals and the Power stocks were in demand. While, the FMCG, Banking and the Oil & Gas stocks remained under pressure.

The BSE Sensex ended lower by 43 points at 15,332 after touching a high of 15,463 and a low of 15,240. The index opened at 15,428 against the previous close of 15,375. The NSE Nifty slipped 13 points to shut shop at 4,559.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan ended flat to end at 10,087, while Australia's S&P/ASX ended higher by 0.7% at 4,169. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong advanced by 1.8% to end at 20,624.

In Europe, stocks were mixed. The FTSE in the UK was down 0.3% at 4,573. The DAX was flat at 5,243 and the CAC 40 was down 0.2% at 3,367.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Realty index was the top gainer, rising 4.5%, followed by the Auto index that was up 2.1%. The BSE Metal index up 1.2% and the BSE Power index was up 0.7%.

The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 1.1% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.6%.

Within the Sensex, the major gainers were Tata Motors, Reliance Infra, DLF, Maruti, RCom, Tata Power and Tata Steel. Among the major losers were Hindustan Unilever, ICICI Bank, Grasim, SBI, Reliance Industries and Infosys.

Outside the frontline indices, the top gainers included Cadila, Nagarjuna Const, Renuka Sugar, Welspun Gujarat, Tata Chemicals and RCF.

Among the big losers in the broader market were Areva, Bank of India, Fin Tech, ABB and Jain Irrigation.

Grasim Industries has posted 61% growth in net profit at Rs10.80bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2009. The huge growth is on account of sale of its sponge iron division. Excluding the one time gain, the company has still managed to clock in growth of 3% YoY. Net profit for the company for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 was at Rs6.72bn

Total Income is Rs51.79bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2009 where as the same was at Rs45.16bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008. The stock slipped nearly 2% to Rs2837, it opened at Rs2898 and made an intra-day high of Rs2938 and a low of Rs2802. Total traded volumes stood at 92,000 shares.

Shares of Hindustan Unilever dropped by over 7% to end at Rs277 after the company reported a net profit of Rs5.43bn down 2.6% YoY for the fiscal first quarter ended June 30, 2009 as against Rs5.58bn in the same period last year. Total income for the reporting quarter has increased to Rs45.36bn from Rs43.17bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008.

The stock opened at Rs303 and made an intra-day high of Rs306 and a low of Rs273. Total traded volumes stood at 4.3mn shares.

Shares of ITC gained by 1% to end at Rs240. According to reports, the company plans to invest Rs80bn in the next five years to scale up its hotel business. Besides investing Rs80bn for hotel expansion, the company is also investing Rs40bn-50bn in a greenfield paper plant.

The stock opened at Rs240 and made an intra-day high of Rs245 and a low of Rs232. Total traded volumes stood at 0.89mn shares.

Shares of Kotak Mahindra Bank slipped by 1% to end at Rs662. The company announced its Q1 results with net profit at Rs2.57bn as against Rs1.5bn in the same period previous year. Thereby posting a 71% growth YoY.

Total Income increased from Rs7.9bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 to Rs8.9bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2009. The stock opened at Rs672 and made an intra-day high of Rs681 and a low of Rs648. Total traded volumes stood at 0.67mn shares.

Bharti Airtel announced that the company has exceeded 1mn customers in Sri Lanka and further plans to start operations in Sri Lanka North. Shares of Bharti gained by 1% to Rs427. The stock opened at Rs425 and made an intra-day high of Rs435 and a low of Rs415. Total traded volumes stood at 0.99mn shares.

Shares of SpiceJet surged by over 5% to Rs20 after the company returned to profits.

The company announced its quarterly results with a net profit of Rs263.4mn for the three months ended June 30 as against a loss of Rs1292.2mn in the same period a year earlier. The company’s Net sales were at Rs5,246.9mn as against Rs4,571.9mn in the same period last year.