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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Can Bulls march ahead ?


Though we march to the music of our time, our mission is timeless.

The PM and India are going places, literally. In a rare honour for the nation, Dr. Manmohan Singh presided over the National Day Parade in Paris. To top it all, the Indian Army spearheaded the march to the tune of "Saare Jahan Se Achcha".

Back home, the monsoon seems to have picked up. At least the Mumbaikars felt the rain fury. While some pockets are facing floods, Manipur and Jharkhand have been declared drought-hit. So, the picture is still murky as far as monsoon is concerned.

Meanwhile, the FM has tried to assuage concerns that the humongous borrowing program won’t fuel interest rates or spur inflation. It’s a Herculean task and only time will tell whether he and the RBI manage to achieve it. Fingers crossed on this one.

We are set to open higher due to firm global trend. Strong earnings from Goldman Sachs and Intel have perked up the mood in Asia. Volatility is a given as markets across the globe react to results and economic data.

We would reiterate our warning that one should not get fooled by any short-term spurts or reversals in key indices. Most of Tuesday's gains appear to have come on the back of short covering. Focus on your portfolio and take each day as it comes.

Results Today: Bajaj Auto Finance, Bajaj Finserve, Cipla, CMC, Dhampur Sugar, IBN18, IDBI Bank, South Indian Bank and TV18.

FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Tuesday at Rs872.3mn while the local institutions poured in Rs2bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs12.8bn. On Monday, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs1.9bn in the cash segment.

US benchmarks gained on Tuesday for a second day running at the end of a choppy session as better-than-estimated retail sales boosted consumer shares, while energy producers climbed as natural gas prices jumped the most in a month.

Investors welcomed Goldman Sachs' better-than-expected results but showed caution ahead of all the quarterly reports due in the weeks ahead.

After the close, Intel reported earnings and revenue that fell from a year ago but topped estimates. The chipmaker also said that third-quarter revenue will top expectations. Its shares jumped 7% in after-hours trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 28 points, or 0.3%, to 8,359.49. The S&P 500 index added 5 points, or 0.5%, to 905.84. The Nasdaq Composite index edged up 6 points, or 0.4%, to 1,799.73.

More than five stocks advanced for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

US stocks had rallied on Monday after influential banking analyst Meredith Whitney said she was raising her view on Goldman Sachs. After rallying 40% in three months, stocks have drifted lower over the last month. The second-quarter reporting period could prove to be the next catalyst for a fresh move in either direction.

Goldman Sachs said it earned $3.44 billion, or $4.93 per share, in the second quarter versus $2.1 billion, or $4.58 per share, a year ago. Analysts expected net income of $1.73 billion or $3.54 a share. Goldman Sachs benefited from strength in its fixed-income and trading businesses.

In other financial sector news, small-business lender CIT Group rallied on bets that the strapped company will get government help.

Dow component Johnson & Johnson reported second-quarter earnings of $1.15 per share versus $1.18 a year ago. Analysts were expecting $1.11 per share, on average. J&J shares inched higher.

Dell shares slipped 8% after the company said late on Monday that it expects to see a small decline in gross margins, a key measure of profitability. Dell also said it expects to report a slight increase in revenue when its second quarter ends at the end of July.

Higher gas prices and increases in auto purchases and auto prices boosted June retail sales and wholesale inflation, the government reported. June retail sales rose 0.6%. the Commerce Department reported. Economists thought sales would rise 0.4%. Sales rose 0.5% in the previous month. Sales, excluding autos rose 0.3%, short of forecasts for a rise of 0.5%. Sales rose 0.5% in May.

The producer price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, jumped 1.8% in June versus forecasts for a rise of 1%. Higher gas prices played a big role in the rise. PPI rose 0.2% in the previous month. The so-called core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.5% after falling 0.1% in May. Economists thought it would rise 0.1%.

Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.46% from 3.35% on Monday.

In currency trading, the dollar gained against the euro and the Japanese yen.

US light crude oil for August delivery fell 17 cents to settle at $59.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery rose 30 cents to settle at $922.80 an ounce.

JPMorgan Chase announces its earnings on Thursday and Bank of America and Citigroup are due to declare their results on Friday. The financial sector as a whole is expected to see profits fall more than 50% versus a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to have declined around 36% in the quarter, versus a year ago. However, what the companies say about the second half of the year and the economic outlook will be critical.

Among the economic news in focus on Wednesday, reports are due in the morning on consumer inflation, manufacturing, oil inventories and industrial production and capacity utilization. In the afternoon, the minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting are due.

A strong performance from the banking sector helped European shares rise again. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 1.2% to 203.17. The index had also climbed on Monday, with banks performing strongly ahead of earnings from several major US lenders.

The UK's FTSE 100 index gained 0.9% to 4,237.68, while Germany's DAX index advanced 1.3% to 4,781.69 and the French CAC-40 index was up 1% to 3,081.87.

It was raining gains on Dalal Street with the NSE Nifty index surging past the 4,100 levels on Tuesday. The rally was led by strong global cues; sentiments were further boosted after a revival in the monsoon aided the nation’s seasonal rain deficit to 33% from as much as 46% last month.

The Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that southwest monsoon activity is expected to move into higher gear later this week, and if the forecast turns out to be accurate there would be no cause for concern despite below-normal rains so far.

In addition the India Meteorological Department said that the northwest region will receive rain and thundershowers at many places.

The Realty, Metals, Consumer Durables, Power, Capital Goods and the banking stocks were in demand, even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks ended with smart gains.

The Sensex surged by 453 points or 3.3% to end at 13,853 after touching a high of 13,903 and a low of 13,549. The index had opened at 13,549 against the previous close of 13,400.

The NSE Nifty surged 137 points or 3.4% to shut shop at 4,111.

Asian markets ended in the positive terrain; the Nikkei index in Japan gained 2.3% at 9,261, Australia's S&P/ASX ended higher by 3.5% at 3,867. Hang Seng index gained 3.6% at 17,885.

Elsewhere in the Europe, stocks were trading in green. The FTSE index was up 0.7% at 4,230. The DAX index was up 0.9% at 4,763. CAC 40 index was up 0.5% at 3,067.

Coming back to India, among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Realty index was the top gainer gaining 9.3%, followed by the BSE Metal index up 5.5%, BSE Consumer Durables index up 5.1% and BSE Power index up 4.6%.

Even the broader indices ended in the green, the BSE Mid-Cap index surged 4.2% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 4.4%.

In the Sensex, the major gainers were DLF, Reliance Infra, JP Associates, ICICI Bank, HDFC, Tata Steel, RCom and Grasim.

On the other hand, HDFC Bank was the only loser among the 30-components of Sensex.

Outside the frontline indices, the top gainers included Aban Offshore, IDFC, Ackruti City, REC, Power Finance and Adani Ent.

Among the big losers in the broader market were KSK Energy, Jain Irrigation, Sintex Industries, Koutans Retail and Ashok Leyland.

Shares of Aban Offshore shot up by over 21% to Rs787 after Morgan Stanley in its reports on the company reiterated Overweight rating on Aban Offshore and raised price target to Rs1,114 per share.

The stock was upgraded on account of improving fundamentals for the offshore jackup industry with rising crude oil prices; increased probability of financial restructuring; and global view of higher crude oil prices which Moran Stanley believe should lead to even higher rig rates and more contracts for Aban.

The stock opened at Rs670 and made an intra-day high of Rs815 and a low of Rs670. Total traded volumes stood at 3mn shares on the BSE.

HDFC Bank earned total income of Rs51.36bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, an increase of Rs9.21bn over the corresponding quarter ended June 30, 2008.

Net revenues (net interest income plus other income) were Rs28.99bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, an increase of 25.1% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

Interest earned (net of loan origination costs and amortization of premia on investments held in the Held to Maturity (HTM) category) increased from Rs36.21bn in the quarter ended June 30, 2008 to Rs40.93bn in the quarter ended June 30, 2009.

Shares of BHEL surged by over 4.5% to Rs2046 after it won order worth Rs6.4bn from Adhunik Power for 270MW thermal power plant. The stock opened at Rs2022 and made an intra-day high of Rs2069 and a low of Rs1995. Total traded volumes stood at 0.14mn shares on BSE.

Shares of ABB rose over 3.5% to Rs683 after the company won orders worth Rs1.41bn from Maharashtra State Electricity Transmission Company for substations to help improve the efficiency and reliability of the state’s network.

The 220kV and 132kV substations will be located in the Nashik, Amravati and Nagpur zones. The order was won in the second quarter and the project is scheduled for completion in 2010.

Shares of SREI Infra were locked at 20% upper circuit to Rs55.20 after the company denied any accusation related to Maytas Infra.

The Vice Chairman was quoted as saying that "The Company has not received any complaints from the registrar of companies".

The stock opened at Rs48 and made an intra-day high of Rs55.20 and a low of Rs47.80. Total traded volumes stood at 2.1mn shares on the BSE.