Markets seen opening firm

Key benchmark indices are seen opening firm extending Friday's around 3% surge on follow-up buying. The SGX Nifty futures for July 2009 expiry rose 6 points in Singapore. Global cues were mixed. However it may give up gains later in the day as profit booking may emerge with the mood turning cautious ahead of the Union Budget 200-10

The Union Budget 200-10 will be presented on 6 July 2009, with the Annual economic survey scheduled on 2 July 2009 followed by the Rail Budget on 3 July 2009. Many equity analysts have been raising earnings forecasts of India Inc on hopes that the new government will provide thrust on the infrastructure sector and push economic reforms to boost growth. Citigroup expects the economy to grow by 6.8% in the year ending March 2010 (FY 2010) and 7.8% in the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011).

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee would present the budget on 6 July 2009. The Railway Budget will be presented on 3 July 2009 and the Economic Survey would be presented on 2 July 2009.

A comfortable victory last month for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in elections for the 15th Lok Sabha has raised hopes for economic reforms. Reforms virtually came to a halt in the past five years of the Congress-led alliance government at the centre, when the Communists provided support to the government from outside for a large part of the five-year term. Left parties are opposed to economic reforms.

Investor expectations from the new government are high. Investors expect financial sector reforms such as increase in the cap on foreign direct investment in insurance sector to 49%, from 26% at present.

Asian markets were trading on a mixed note today, 29 June 2009 even as encouraging economic reports from Japan helped revive hopes of a faster economic revival. Key benchmark indices in China, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan were up by between 0.03% and 0.61%. However indices in Hong Kong and Singapore were down 0.11% and 0.23% respectively

US markets ended mixed on Friday, 26 June 2009 with the Nasdaq Composite index rising on strong demand for Palm's Inc's Pre smartphone, while the Dow took a hit on account of falling oil prices and strength in some financial stocks helped cushion the S&P 500's decline.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 34.01 points, or 0.40 per cent, to 8,438.39. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.36 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 918.90. But the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 8.68 points, or 0.47 per cent, to 1,838.22.

Back home, as per the provisional figures on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 551.14 crore on Friday, 26 June 2009 while domestic institutional investors purchased shares worth Rs 333.95 crore.

Monsoon rains, which runs from June to September, have weakened and are expected to be below normal, Prithviraj Chavan, minister of science and technology, said on Wednesday, 24 June 2009 in a briefing in New Delhi. The India Meteorological Department on 17 April 2009 predicted rains in the June- September period to be near normal. The minister said the 2009 monsoon rainfall would be 93% of the long-term average, lower than an earlier forecast of 96%.

The outlook is among the nation's most widely watched indicator as monsoon rains are a major influence on output of key crops, economic activity and also affects sentiment in the country's financial markets.

The World Bank on 22 June 2009 predicted that the global economy will shrink 2.9% this year, a deeper fall than the 1.7% contraction it predicted in March 2009.

The good news for India is that the World Bank has raised India's growth forecast for 2009 to 5.1% from earlier projection of 4%. It has projected an 8% growth for India in 2010 which will make it the fastest growing economy in the world in 2010, overtaking China's expected 7.7% growth relative to the robust performance prior to the current crisis.

In its semi-annual Economic Outlook released on 24 June 2009, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) called on the Indian government to restore fiscal discipline, speed up structural reform and increase sales of public-sector assets.

Brazil, India, China and Russia – collectively, the BRICs – held their first summit in Paris this month, underlining the quartet's growing political as well as economic clout.

The OECD had been forecasting GDP growth for India of 4.3% in 2009 and 5.8% in 2010. OECD said that with the gradual recovery of the global economy and easier financial conditions, growth is projected to gradually regain momentum.