Market set for uncertain start

The key benchmark indices may open in green tracking gains in most of Asia. However volatility may be high as investors may remain cautious after recent surge in Indian stocks. The investors will take further cues from Industrial output data for the month of April 2009 due today. Industrial production showed a decline 2.3% in March 2009 as compared to a rise of 5.5% during March 2008.

Most of the Asian stocks rose today as improved economic indicators pointed to an easing of the U.S. recession and metal prices jumped the most in 10 days. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, and Singapore rose by between 0.4% to 0.98%.

But,China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.35% even as China's industrial production rebounded in May 2009, adding to signs that the world's third-biggest economy is recovering from its worst slump in almost a decade. Output rose 8.9 % in May 2009 over May 2008 the statistics bureau said today, after gaining 7.3 % in April 2009. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted fell 0.65%.

The US markets closed flat yet again on Thursday, 11 June 2009, well off their earlier highs. Wall Street got an early boost from the pre-market economic reports, which showed jobless claims fell last week and retail sales ticked higher in May 2009. The Dow gained 31.90 points, or 0.4%, to 8,770.92. The S&P 500 added 5.74 points, or 0.6%, to 944.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 9.29 points, or 0.5%, to 1,862.37

Some encouraging economic data lifted the sentiment on Wall Street yesterday initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 24,000 last week to 601,000, a much sharper drop than expected. Retail sales also shot up 0.5% in May 2009, marking the first gain in three months, boosted by rising gasoline prices.

Closer home, Indian stocks have soared in the past three months on a view that ample global liquidity and a return of risk appetite will help India Inc help raise funds for expansion which in turn will boost corporate profits. India Inc has already raised almost Rs 5,000 crore from three qualified institutional placements (QIPs) so far in 2009 and announced plans to raise another Rs 20,000 crore.

Foreign funds are aggressively buying in Indian stocks. As per the provisional figures on NSE, foreign funds bought shares worth Rs 786.57 crore on Thursday, 11 June 2009. Foreign funds are aggressively buying in Indian stocks. FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 4,602.30 crore (till 10 June 2009). FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 25,921.70 crore (till 10 June 2009).

On the back of heavy buying by foreign funds, the Sensex jumped 5,819.50 points or 60.32% in calendar year 2009 as on 10 June 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex jumped 7,306.41 points or 89.53% on 10 June 2009.

Net inflows into domestic equity mutual funds rose to Rs 1,930 crore in May 2009, the highest in 14 months, and more than twice the amount in the first four months of 2009, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India.

Meanwhile, the government reportedly is considering a proposal to restore the rate of service tax to its earlier level of 12%. The government had reduced the service tax rate to 10% in the third stimulus package which was unveiled in February 2009. This option of withdrawing the service tax cut is being weighed on account of spiralling government expenditure, a result of the government's attempts to boost the economy and shrinking revenues due to the slowdown in economic activity.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday said there was a need to find ways to bring the economy back to higher growth path without increasing the fiscal deficit. He said the government would focus on infrastructure, agriculture and employment generating sectors to protect growth and jobs.

Mukherjee had on Wednesday said banks should provide credit at reasonable rates to spur growth, saying cuts in official rates by the Reserve Bank of India had not been passed on. This will help restore the environment for rapid growth and ensure that the growth process benefits, he said. Mukherjee said banks have agreed to explore the possibility of reducing rates after a meeting with chiefs of state-run banks.

Interest rates in India are falling thanks to ample liquidity in the banking system, low headline inflation and a loose monetary policy stance of the Reserve Bank of India. However, inflation may rise if oil and metal prices which have risen sharply in 2009 continue to rally.

A change in the Reserve Bank of India's current loose monetary policy stance if and when it takes place may weigh on equities. Investors have been betting that falling interest rates in India may help sustain strong domestic demand and also support a larger capital expenditure programme of India Inc. Late last week, India's biggest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank cut prime lending rate by 50 basis points.

Rising metal prices is a cause of concerns for manufacturing companies as their raw material costs may shoot up.

The government's oil subsidy bill may remain high and it could continue to put pressure on the already high fiscal deficit if the government does not resort to decontrol of oil prices. However, the surging rupee against the dollar may mitigate the impact to some extent as India is a major importer of crude.

Petroleum Secretary R.S. Pandey on Wednesday said the government is committed to reforms in fuel pricing but it wants to ensure affordable fuel supply. Pandey's comments come in the backdrop of a newspaper report on Tuesday that the government may defer a proposal to decontrol pricing of gasoline and diesel because of the increase in crude oil prices. Trinamool Congress (TC), a key ally in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government, opposes lifting controls on fuel pricing. With her eye on a series of local elections coming up in West Bengal, she told a Bengali television channel on Monday that her party would protest against any move which would result in higher fuel prices.

The government fixes the price of petrol and diesel and compensates state refiners, such as Indian Oil Corporation, HPCL and BPCL by supplying domestic crude oil at a discount and by issuing bonds to shore up their balance sheets.

Any disappointment on reforms may weigh on the stock market at a time when many equity analysts have been raising earnings forecasts of India Inc on hopes that the new government will push economic reforms to boost growth.

The petroleum minister had recently said he will submit a proposal for deregulation of oil products to the Cabinet in six to eight weeks. If government removes price controls on petrol and diesel, it would benefit PSU OMCs and also the government, which has been issuing oil bonds to share PSU OMC's burden. It would also persuade private refiners, such as Reliance Industries and Essar Oil, to reenter the oil-marketing business.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on 26 May 2009 said that a sustained stimulus to economic growth is possible by next round of reforms. He said reviving growth momentum is a top priority for the government adding that fiscal prudence will also be kept in mind.

Investor expectations from the new government are high. Investors expect financial sector reforms such as increase in the cap on foreign direct investment in insurance sector to 49%, from 26% at present.

Unveiling the agenda of the government, President Pratibha Patil in her speech addressed to a joint session of both houses had last week indicated government's intension to divest stake in state-run firms. The government, however, intends to retain control over state-run firms and will continue to hold at least 51% stake. But some investors are concerned that the government's two key allies viz. the DMK and Trinamool Congress (TC) may oppose economic reforms.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday said India will achieve an economic growth of at least 7% this fiscal and promised more resources for areas like infrastructure and public services. He said India will be able a growth rate of 8-9%, even when the world grows at a lower rate.

The Prime Minister said the reason behind his optimism was that India's savings rate, which determines the money that can be deployed for development projects, was still high at 35% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Manmohan Singh also sought to allay fears that pump priming of the economy by way of stimulus packages announced earlier and measures that will follow in the ensuing months would fuel inflation. "It (expenditure towards infrastructure) will not add to inflation, but to our economic growth."

According to the Prime Minister, fiscal deficit had increased sharply but even then India had enough resources to spend on flagship programmes thanks to the average annual growth of 8.6% achieved during the past five years. He also said that his government was deeply committed to the agenda listed in the President's address, adding flagship programmes will be further strengthened and public delivery system made more transparent.