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Monday, March 23, 2009

Toxic tonic thrills bulls


The only thrill worth while is the one that comes from making something out of yourself.

Good morning, as we look set for a bright start. Indices may be in green but make sure your investments too are safe. Asian indices are mostly higher. Obama regime is expected to announce a plan to buy banks’ soured assets. Nifty futures in Singapore and Dow futures are smartly up. But, there could be wild swings for sure ahead of F&O expiry. Also, some resistance is likely at higher levels as investors could turn cautious ahead of an eventful April. We will have to contend with earnings, elections and RBI policy next month.

On the political front, the heat is definitely on. The two main parties (Congress and BJP) so far have been the worst hit. While an internal row is taking toll on BJP, the Congress is facing a revolt of sorts from long-time allies like RJD. Even its alliance with in Uttar Pradesh (SP) and Maharashtra (NCP) are pretty fragile. Post the vote counting, the equations could swing either way. It is this uncertainty and unpredictability of polls that could potentially prove to be a spoilsport for the bulls.

FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Friday at Rs1.49bn while the local institutions were net sellers at Rs940.3mn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs955.5mn. On Thursday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs1.58bn. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs450mn on the same day.

US stocks tumbled on Friday, as investors locked in some gains after the recent rally. Banks and technology shares were among the leading losers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 122 points or 1.7%, to 7,278.38. However, it also managed slim gains for the week, rising for the second week in a row for the first time since last May.

The S&P 500 index fell 15 points, or 2%, to 768.54 while the Nasdaq Composite index fell 26 points or 1.8%, to 1,457.27.

Stocks had fallen on Thursday too after gaining for six of the prior seven sessions. During that run, the S&P 500 rose 17%, spurred on by better-than-expected reports on housing and retail sales and some signs of stabilization in the bank sector. Investors also welcomed news that the Federal Reserve is pumping another trillion into the economy to try to get credit flowing.

Those gains followed a 28% decline for the S&P 500 that left the benchmark index at a 12-1/2 year low. The S&P 500 topped 800 both on Wednesday and on Thursday and that will likely prove to be a key technical level to watch in the weeks ahead, according to some analysts.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before a group of community bankers in Phoenix, defended the need to bail out banks seen as too big to fail, such as AIG. However, he noted that it is an enormous problem that must be addressed.

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, also spoke before the same industry group. She said that more regulation is needed to solve the banking crisis.

Separately, the government reported that there were 2,769 mass layoffs in February, resulting in 295,477 job cuts. A mass layoff involve 50 or more job cuts at the same time. In January, there were 2,227 mass layoffs.

AIG remained in focus after the House of Representatives on Thursday voted to impose a steep tax on large employee bonuses at firms that accepted government bailout money. The legislation was created in response to the public outcry after AIG handed out over $165 million in bonuses to executives after it accepted more than $170 billion in federal bailout money.

In an interview with a leading media house on Thursday, treasury secretary Timothy Geithner said his department was responsible for a provision in the $787 billion stimulus package that allowed AIG and other companies to award bonuses.

Ericsson warned that it will post a loss in the first quarter due to weaker consumer demand for its phones amid the global financial crisis. Shares fell 10.6%. Also in the telecom space, Palm reported a wider quarterly loss and weaker sales late Thursday that missed analysts' estimates. Despite the loss, shares gained 2%.

Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.63% from 2.60% on Thursday.

Lending rates improved. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.22% from 1.23% Thursday, while the overnight Libor rate dipped to 0.28% from 0.3% Thursday. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

US light crude oil for April delivery, which expires on Friday, settled down 55 cents to $51.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $2.60 to settle at $956.20 an ounce.

The president of the European Central Bank (ECB) said in a Wall Street Journal interview that Europe doesn't need to boost spending further to combat the global financial crisis, throwing the bank's weight behind Europe's governments in their battle with the US over how to overcome the worst recession in a generation.

ECB leader Jean-Claude Trichet said that instead of pushing new measures, governments around the world should move faster on what they've already announced - referring in part to delays and difficulties in the US government's rescue of its troubled banks.

Separately, large corporations in Japan saw business conditions worsen during the January-to-March period, according to a survey released by the Japanese government today.

The business sentiment index for corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or more was at negative 51.3 in the first quarter of this year, below the negative 35.7 seen in October-to-December 2008, according to the survey, which is conducted jointly by the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office.

Indian markets ended on a flat note on Friday amid wild swings. After closing above the crucial 9k and 2,800 levels on Thursday, key indices were unable to build on as weak global cues coupled with profit taking at higher levels kept the sentiments mixed on Dalal Street. The BSE Sensex finally gained 25 points to close at 9,001 and the NSE Nifty was up 12 at 2,807.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 13 stocks ended in positive terrain and 17 stocks ended in the red. Hindalco, ONGC, Sun Pharma, HDFC and Tata Steel were among the major gainers. ON the other hand, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, L&T, Maruti and BHEL were among the major losers.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Realty index was the top loser, the index fell 4%. Among the other major losers were BSE Capital Goods index (down 2.5%), BSE Bankex (down 2%) and BSE Auto index (down 1.2%).

Market breath was positive, 1,242 stocks advanced against 1,223 declines, while, 99 stocks remained unchanged.

Shares of Dr. Reddy's Lab declined by over 3% to Rs421. The company is reportedly realigned its Global Generics finished dosages strategy to focus on certain key geographies and would exit some of the very small distributor driven markets.

The markets it was withdrawing from contributed less than one percent of its total annual revenues, the Hyderabad-based drugmaker said in a statement on Thursday. The move appears to be the company’s renewed attempt to consolidate and grow in its key geographies.

The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs431 and a low of Rs415 and recorded volumes of over 56,000 shares on BSE.

The bizarre run in Akruti shares finally came to an end as the stock has plunged by over 28% after the NSE announced that it would remove Akruti City Ltd from its derivatives segment.

Trading in futures and options would be stopped after March 26, 2009 the day contracts for April and May expire. Outstanding contracts in the April-May series will expire on March 26, the last day of the current settlement cycle. The NSE has also placed the stock in the Trade to trade segment effective from March 27.

The stock had rallied over 137% in the last six trading sessions and has surged 147% from its 52-wek low of Rs550 hit on January 1, 2009.

The stock has been constantly outperforming the real estate sector as well as major equity indices despite sliding real estate prices.

Of the company’s equity base of 66.7mn shares, promoters own 90%, around 6% is held by corporate bodies and the rest by the public.

Shares of NDTV surged by over 2.5% to Rs82.2 after reports stated the NDTV consortium is also in the race to acquire broadcast rights for the upcoming T20 tournament. This consists of NDTV, Malaysian broadcaster Astro and PE fund Providence Capital. In addition, Multi screen Media (MSM) and ESPN Star sports are also in the fray for the same.

MSM had dragged BCCI to Bombay HC last weekend, seeking injunction over the cricket board attempting to negotiate a fresh contract for IPL’s broadcast rights. However, MSM, (earlier Sony Entertainment) is close to resolving the legal dispute with the BCCI, reports added.

The stock had hit a 52-week high of Rs482 on June 18, 2008 and hit a 52-week low of Rs69 on December 2, 2008.