Crude falls on GDP data

Prices rise 12% for the week

Oil prices ended lower for the first time in four days on Friday, 27 February, 2009. Prices fell after preliminary fourth quarter GDP report showed that the US economy contracted more than expected in US.

On Friday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for April delivery closed at $44.76/barrel (lower by $0.46 or 1%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, crude ended higher by 12%. For the month of February, crude prices ended higher by 1.5%.

Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 69% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 4%. On a yearly basis, crude prices are lower by 63%.

On Friday, in US, fourth quarter GDP was revised lower to reflect an annual rate of -6.2% versus a previously estimated -3.8%. The decrease in fourth quarter activity primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures, equipment and software, and residential fixed investment. The report once again questioned the demand for oil in the coming months.

EIA had reported earlier during the week that U.S. gasoline consumption during the past four weeks rose 1.7% from a year ago. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels.

EIA had also reported that crude inventories rose by 700,000 barrels to 351.3 million during last week. Market had expected a rise of more than 2 million barrels. Total products supplied over the past four weeks, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, averaged 19.7 million barrels per day, down 0.8% from a year ago. Excluding jet fuel, total products supplied rose slightly.

Prices had been sliding since past couple of months after fear gripped the US economy that US banks might be nationalized.

OPEC has been trying to cut production consistently in order to step up prices from their current low levels. During the last weekend, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said that OPEC is likely to reduce output in March, 2009. OPEC has already agreed to cut cartel quotas by 4.2 million barrels a day since September, equivalent to about 5% of global oil demand. The cartel is supposed to meet on 15 March at Vienna.

Against this background, April reformulated gasoline fell 1.2% to $1.3725 a gallon and April heating oil dropped 2% to $1.2675 a gallon.

Natural gas for April delivery also rose 3.1% to $4.203 per million British thermal units. It fell to $3.916 earlier, the lowest level since November, 2002.