Tata Steel surges in choppy market

Key benchmark indices recovered sharply in intraday trade as banking stocks reversed losses and IT stocks recovered. India's largest steel maker by sales Tata Steel spurted after announcing better-than-expected Q3 December 2008 consolidated results in late trade. The BSE 30-share Sensex settled down 63.25 points, or 0.71%, off close to 160 points from the day's low.

Comments by Economic Affairs Secretary Ashok Chawla that Q4 March 2009 will show robust economic growth helped soothe investor nerves after the latest data showed the GDP recording a lower-than-expected 5.3% growth in Q3 December 2008. The BSE Sensex had tumbled 2.45% in mid-morning trade hit by the data. Weak rupee and dismal global economic data also affected the sentiment.

The market was volatile. After a sharp slide in mid-morning trade hit by disappointing Q3 GDP data, an intermittant recovery was witnessed on a number of occasions.

Chawla said a stronger growth Q4 March 2009 will help push India's full fiscal year economic expansion close to 7%. Historically, the fourth-quarter contribution to GDP growth is better, he said.

India's economy grew at its slowest annual pace in almost six years by 5.3% in Q3 December 2008 as the global economic crisis cut demand and exports. The figure is sharply lower from 7.6% in Q2 September 2008. The manufacturing sector fell 0.2% in in Q3 December 2008 from a year earlier, while the farm sector contracted an annual 2.2%, government data showed on Friday, 27 February 2009. India's economy grew 7.6% in the September 2008 quarter and 7.9% in the June 2008 quarter. India has estimated the economy to grow 7.1% in 2008/09, slowing from the 9% in the previous year.

Meanwhile, a sharp slide in rupee which hit a record low against the dollar heightened worries that some foreign funds may refrain from buying stocks. A fall in rupee reduces the valuation of the portfolio of foreign funds to that extent. The impact can be mitigated by hedging. Currently, foreign funds are dependent on the relatively less transparent over-the-counter markets for hedging. Foreign funds are not allowed to trade in currency futures market in India.

In fact, foreign funds are in selling mode in Indian stocks, having dumped shares worth Rs 6670.60 crore (till 26 February 2009). As per the provisional figures on BSE, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 463.03 crore while domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 649.26 crore today, 27 February 2009.

Fears of rising borrowing costs for Indian corporates linger in the minds of investors as fears of a downgrade of India's sovereign rating by global rating agencies loom large. Rating agency S&P on Tuesday, 24 February 2009, cut its outlook on India's long-term sovereign credit rating to negative from stable citing worsening government finances, which could raise Indian firms' overseas borrowing costs and weaken the rupee. Moody's Economy.com on Wednesday, 25 February 2009, said India's wider fiscal deficit will boost funding costs and weaken investor confidence.

Further, a downgrade will mean that some foreign funds, which have mandates to park their money only in investment-grade paper, could well withdraw money, leading to further pressure on the stock markets. It could also affect the prospect of new inflows from foreign funds.

Meanwhile, global economic data continued to paint a worsening picture of the global economy. Data on Thursday showed US jobless claims hit a 26-year high, while Japanese data early Friday confirmed the bleak outlook for the world's second biggest economy, with industrial output falling 10.0% in January 2009 and shipments down 11.4%, the biggest on-month falls on record.

European stocks slipped in early trade on Friday, wiping out nearly all the previous session's gains, with pharma shares falling on fears the US budget proposal could curb profits. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were down by between 1.66% to 2.18%.

Asian markets were trading mixed today, 27 February 2009, as technology companies gained on brokerage upgrades and commodity shares advanced on higher metal prices. Key benchmark indices in Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan were up by between 0.78% and 1.48%. Indices in Hong Kong, China and South Korea were down by between 0.65% and 1.81%.

US markets ended lower on Thursday, 26 February 2009, in volatile trade as a spate of sour economic data and worries that President Obama's budget proposal will strangle profits forced investors to sell off stocks across the board. The Obama administration sees the FY09 deficit at $1.75 trillion.

The Dow Jones industrial average declined 88.81 points, or 1.2%, to 7,182.08. The S&P 500 index slipped 12.07 points, or 1.6%, to 752.83 and the Nasdaq Composite index lost 33.96 points, or 2.4%, to 1,391.47.

Obama proposed almost $1 trillion in higher taxes over the next decade on the highest-earning Americans, Wall Street financiers, US-based multinational corporations and oil companies to pay for permanent tax breaks for lower earners.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 63.25 points, or 0.71%, to 8,891.61. At the day's low of 8,728.66 the Sensex lost 226.20 points in afternoon trade. At the day's high of 8,944.11 Sensex fell 10.75 points in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 22 points, or 0.79%, to 2,763.65.

The barometer index BSE Sensex had gained 132.80 points or 1.5% in last two trading sessions. But the Sensex is down 755.70 points or 7.83% in calendar 2009 from its close of 9,647.31 on 31 December 2008.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3,045 crore, higher than Rs 2,696.32 crore on Thursday, 26 February 2009.

Nifty March 2009 futures were at 2730, at a discount of 33.65 points as compared to the spot closing of 2763.65. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 39204.47 crore much lower than Rs 50142.32 crore on Thursday, 26 February 2009.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, turned weak on BSE with 1,054 shares advancing as compared with 1,336 that declined. A total of 66 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was positive in early trade before the GDP data.

The BSE Bankex (up 1.31%), the BSE FMCG index (up 0.34%), the BSE Metal index (up 0.22%), the BSE PSU index (down 0.09%), the BSE Power index (down 0.24%), the BSE Healthcare index (down 0.39%), the BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.43%), the BSE Auto index (down 0.44%), the BSE IT index (down 0.69%) outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Realty index (down 2.29%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (down 1.64%), the BSE TECk index (down 1.4%) and the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.8%) underperfomed the Sensex.

From the 30 share Sensex pack, 22 stocks fell while the rest rose.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 1.97% to Rs 1,265.05 on fears a worsening global economy will hit demand for petrochemicals. Nevertheless, the stock came off the day's lows of Rs 1,248.

The world's sixth largest steel maker by sales Tata Steel surged 5.61% to Rs 172.35 after announcing forecast-bearing consolidated results. On a consolidated basis, the company's net profit fell 44.18% to Rs 732.21 crore on 3.57% rise in total income to Rs 33,222.59 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007. The market was expecting a loss.

But other metal stocks, Hindalco Industries, Steel Authority of India and Sterlite Industries, fell by between 0.52% to 3.16%.

Auto stocks fell as high interest rates and sluggish consumer spending have dented demand for cars, trucks, motorcycles and scooters. Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India fell by between 0.37% to 3.38%.

Banking stocks reversed losses in late trade as bond prices rose for the second day in a row on speculation the central bank will cut policy rates to support faltering growth. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 1.03% to Rs 328.10. The stock came off the day's low of Rs 311.25. Its American Depository Receipts (ADR) slipped 5.17% on Thursday, 26 February 2009. Recently, Life Insurance Corporation of India hiked its stake in ICICI Bank by 2.04% to 9.38%.

India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank rose 1.35% to Rs 884.85 off the day's low of Rs 843.20.

India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India rose 0.29% to Rs 1,027.10. The stock came off the day's low of Rs 1008.30. The Indian government on Tuesday 24 February 2009 introduced a bill in Parliament which will enable it to increase the capital base of State Bank of India's subsidiaries and issue preference and bonus shares of these entities.

Treasury gains had helped many banks report strong Q3 December 2008 results.

As per the latest data by the Reserve Bank of India, the banking sector lent over Rs 10000 crore in the fortnight ended 13 February 2009. Food credit rose Rs 547.82 crore, while non-food credit rose went up by Rs 9124.95 crore. This is the highest fortnightly growth in bank loans since November 2007.

Despite a steep cut in policy rates in India since October 2008, there has not been a commensurate reduction in lending rates by banks as fears of rising bad loans have made banks cautious in increasing advances.

India's largest mortgage lender by operating income Housing Development Finance Corporation rose 4.75% after a block deal of 14.02 lakh shares was executed on BSE at Rs 1215 per share.

Some of the FMCG stocks rose on defensive buying. Nestle India, Tata Tea, United Spirits, Marico rose by between 0.38% to 3.44%.

India's largest FMCG major by sales Hindustan Unilever rose 0.3% to Rs 253.80 off the day's low of Rs 248.50.

Capital goods stocks fell on worries a slowing economy will crimp orders. Bharat Heavy Electricals, Punj Lloyd, ABB and Crompton Greaves fell by between 0.53% to 4.87%.

Rate sensitive realty stocks extended fall on recent reports falling interest rates have failed to revive housing demand. DLF, Unitech and Indiabulls Real Estate, Akruti City fell by between 2.16% to 5.08%. Most of the realty deals including sale of commercial property and housing sales are driven by finance.

Meanwhile, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) on Thursday, 26 February 2009, approved a scheme to encourage states to increase the supply of land and construct 10 lakh affordable houses. The Centre will provide finance assistance of Rs 5000 crore over the next four years for the affordable housing projects.

Construction and development is envisaged in public-private partnership (PPP) mode. Private Sector developers and builders as well as state housing boards are expected to be partners to the government and construct and develop projects with funding from institutional sources. Real estate developers looking to affordable housing during the downturn will now have an opportunity to take up projects where demand for housing is still high, a release by the government after the CCEA meeting said. The urban housing shortage is estimated at 24.7 million, largely for the weaker and low income households.

Outsourcing focussed IT firms fell on fears a weak global economy would cut the amount firms spent on technology and on fall in ADRs overnight. India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro fell 3.98% as its ADR fell 1.82% overnight. India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies slipped 0.41% to Rs 1,231.30 off the day's low of Rs 1,202.35. Its ADR fell 1.71% overnight. India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS fell 0.25% to Rs 480.60 off the day's low of Rs 456.

IT firms derive a lion's share of revenue from exports to US. There have been concerns of cut back in technology spend by global firms amid a recession in the US economy and due to the global financial sector crisis.

Infosys Technologies expects slowdown in IT services business in the foreseeable future as clients delay technology spending amid the global economic crisis, its chief executive said on Friday, 27 February 2009.

IT stocks fell despite rupee hitting a record low against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was at 51.13 and weaker than its Thursday's close of 50.45/47. A weak rupee boosts revenues of IT firms in rupee terms as IT companies earn a lion's share of revenue from exports.

India's largest drugmaker by sales Ranbaxy Laboratories fell 4.8% extending fall after the US Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) on Wednesday, 25 February 2009, said Ranbaxy falsified data of over two dozen drugs made in Poanta Sahib plant in India and it will halt approval of pending and new drugs from the plant. The allegation sent the Ranbaxy stock tumbling 18% in a single trading session on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Daiichi Sankyo, the new owner of India's largest drugmaker Ranbaxy Laboratories, said it has formed a team to solve the ongoing issues with the US drug regulator.

Other healthcare stocks, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Cipla and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, fell by between 0.48% to 4.8%.

Textile exporters rose after the government announced a plan to extend a Rs 325 crore duty refund scheme for exporters to December 2009 to help textiles and leather firms. Bombay Dyeing and Zodiac Clothing rose 1.78% and 2.47% respectively.

Provogue India fell 2.32% on reports it has deferred plans to expand to Singapore, Thailand and Dubai until September this year due to the global economic turmoil.

Torrent Power rose 1.95% on securing a power distribution contract for a period of 20 years.

Satyam Computer Services clocked the highest volume of 1.32 crore shares on BSE. GVK Power & Infrastructure (1.14 crore shares), United Breweries (1.07 crore shares), Cals Refineries (85.39 lakh shares) and Tata Steel (73.35 lakh shares) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

HDFC clocked the highest turnover of Rs 232.07 crore on BSE. Educomp Solutions (Rs 199.43 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 179.45 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 176.20 crore) and United Spirits (Rs 125.60 crore) were he other turnover toppers in that order.