Next Oil Shock ?

The world is breathing easy, now that oil prices are below $40 a barrel, down sharply from $147 a barrel in June. But, in fact, the current financial crisis and recession could accentuate the severe supply-side constraints that drove up prices last year to record highs, cautions Mikkal Herberg, research director of the energy security programme at the National Bureau of Asian Research in Washington and a veteran strategist in the oil industry.

"It's hard to say how long and deep this recession will be and how soon the global economy -- and demand for oil -- will recover, but when it does, in a year or two, it will immediately run into supply constraints," says Herberg.

In fact, the current financial crunch has already led to the postponement or cancellation over $100 billion worth of oil projects in the past six months, which will aggravate the "supply pathology" when recovery begins, he points out.

At that point, oil prices will ride swiftly back up the escalator, perhaps even beyond their earlier highs. Last year's 'oil shock' was the culmination of a "perfect storm" that built up over five years -- in the sense that "nearly everything that could go wrong went wrong," recalls Herberg.

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