Warren Buffet Interview

Below is a short interview with Warren Buffett who was featured on the the PBS Nightly Business Report tonight.

PBS Nightly Business Report & Warren Buffett
Full Transcript of NBR Anchor Susie Gharibs interview with Warren Bufffett
Airs January 22, 2009, Nightly Business Reports 30th Anniversary

SUSIE GHARIB, ANCHOR, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT: Are we overly optimistic about what President Obama can do?

WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY: Well I think if you think that he can turn things around in a month or three months or six months and theres going to be some magical transformation since he took office on the 20th that cant happen and wouldnt happen. So you dont want to get into Superman-type expectations. On the other hand, I dont think theres anybody better than you could have had; have in the presidency than Barack Obama at this time. He understands economics. Hes a very smart guy. Hes a cool rational-type thinker. He will work with the right kind of people. So youve got the right person in the operating room, but it doesnt mean the patient is going to leave the hospital tomorrow.


SG: Mr. Buffett, I know that youre close to President Obama, what are you advising him?

WB: Well Im not advising him really, but if I were I wouldnt be able to talk about it. I am available any time. But hes got all kinds of talent right back there with him in Washington. Plus hes a talent himself so if I never contributed anything for him, fine.

SG: But I know that during the election that you were one of his economic advisors, what were you telling him?

WB: I was telling him business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far Ive been either lucky or right on that. But hes got the right ideas. He believes in the same things I believe in. Americas best days are ahead and that weve got a great economic machine, its sputtering now. And he believes there could be a more equitable job done in distributing the rewards of this great machine. But he doesnt need my advice on anything.

SG: How often do you talk to him?

WB: Not often, not often... no no and it will be less often now that hes in the office. Hes got a lot of talent around him.

SG: Whats the most important thing you think he needs to fix?

WB: Well the most important thing to fix right now is the economy. We have a business slowdown particularly after October 1st it was sort of on a glide path downward up til roughly October 1st and then it went into a real nosedive. In fact in September I said we were in an economic Pearl Harbor and Ive never used that phrase before. So he really has a tough economic situation and thats his number one job. Now his number one job always is to keep America safe that goes without saying.

SG: But when you look at the economy, what do you think is the most important thing he needs to fix in the economy?

WB: Well weve had to get the credit system partially fixed in order for the economy to have a chance of starting to turn around. But theres no magic bullet on this. Theyre going to throw everything from the government they can in. As I said, the Treasury is going all in, the Fed and they have to and that isnt necessarily going to produce anything dramatic in the short term at all. Over time the American economy is going to work fine.

SG: There is considerable debate as you know about whether President Obama is taking the right steps so we dont get in this kind of economic mess again, where do you stand on that debate?

WB: Well I dont think the worry right now should be about the next one, the worry should be about the present one. Lets get this fire out and then well figure out fire prevention for the future. But really the important thing to do now is to figure out how we get the American economy restarted and thats not going to be easy and its not going to be soon, but its going to get done.

SG: But there is debate about whether there should be fiscal stimulus, whether tax cuts work or not. There is all of this academic debate among economists. What do you think? Is that the right way to go with stimulus and tax cuts?

WB: The answer is nobody knows. The economists dont know. All you know is you throw everything at it and whether its more effective if youre fighting a fire to be concentrating the water flow on this part or that part. Youre going to use every weapon you have in fighting it. And people, they do not know exactly what the effects are. Economists like to talk about it, but in the end theyve been very, very wrong and most of them in recent years on this. We dont know the perfect answers on it. What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake or to follow Hoover-like policies would be a mistake and we dont know how effective in the short run we dont know how effective this will be and how quickly things will right themselves. We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again.

SG: But are we creating new problems?
WB: Always

SG: How worried are you about these multi-trillion dollar deficits?
WB: You cant just do one thing in economics. Anytime somebody says theyre going to do this and then what? And there is no free lunch so if you pour money at this problem you do have after effects. You create certain problems. I mean you are giving a medicine dosage to the patient on a scale that we havent seen in this country. And there will be after effects and they cant be predicted exactly. But certainly the potential is there for inflationary consequences that would be significant.

SG: We all know that in the long run everything is going to work out, but as you analyze President Obamas economic plan, what do you think are the trade-offs? What are the consequences?

WB: Well the trade-off the trade-off basically is that you risk setting in motion forces that will be very hard to stop in terms of inflation down the road and you are creating an imbalance between revenues and expenses in the government that is a lot easier to create than it will be to correct later on, but those are problems worth taking on, but you dont get a free lunch.

SG: What about the regulatory system, is it a matter of making new rules or simply doing a better job at enforcing the rules we already have?
WB: Well there are probably some new rules needed, but the regulatory system I dont think could have stopped this. Once you get the bubble going... once the American public, the U.S. Congress, all the commentators, the media, everybody else started thinking house prices could go nothing up, you were creating a bubble that would have huge consequences because the asset class was so big. I mean you had 22 trillion dollars probably worth of homes. It was the biggest asset of most American families and you let them borrow 100% in many cases of the price of those and you let them refi up to where they kept taking out more and more and treating it as an ATM machine.. the bubble was going to happen.


SG: But everybody is saying we need more rules, we have to enforce them, we need to go after every institution, every financial market. Do you think that new rules will do the trick or do we have enough rules that we just need to enforce them?
WB: Well you can have a rule for example to prevent another real estate bubble; you just require that anybody bought a house to put 20% down and make sure that the payments were not more than a third of their income. Now we would not have a big bust ever in real estate again, but we would also have people screaming that youre denying home ownership to all these people that you got a home yourself and now youre saying a guy with a 5% down payment shouldnt get one. So I think its very tough to put rules out... I mean I can design rules that will prevent it but it will have other consequences. Its like I say in economics you cant just do one thing and where the balance is struck on that will be a political question. My guess is that it wont be struck particularly well, but thats just the nature of politics.


SG: Youve said that were in an economic Pearl Harbor, so how bad are things really?
WB: Theyre bad, theyre bad. The credit situation is getting a little better now. Things have loosened up from a month ago in the corporate debt market. But the rate of business descent is at a pretty alarming pace, I mean there is no question things have really slowed down.

Peoples buying habits have changed. Fear has taken over and fear is a tough thing to fight because you cant go on television and say dont be afraid, that doesnt work. People will get over it, they got greedy and they got over being greedy. But it took a while to get over being greedy and now the pendulum has swung way over to the fear side. Theyll get over that and we just hope that they dont go too far back to the greed side.


SG: Whats your view on the recession? How much longer is it going to last?
WB: I dont know. I dont know. I dont know the answer to these things. The only thing is I know that I dont know. Maybe other people think they know, but I have no idea.


SG: The last time we talked, you said back in the Spring, you said the recession is not going to be a short-haul thing. What is your feel for it right now?
WB: It isnt going to be short, but I just dont know Susie. Theres no way of knowing.

SG: Berkshire Hathaway is in a lot of businesses that are economically sensitive, like furniture, paint, bricks. Do you see any signs of a pick up?
WB: No. No. The businesses that are either construction or housing related, or that are just plain consumer businesses, theyre doing very, very poorly. The American consumer has stepped back big time and its contagious and theres a feedback mechanism because once you hear about this then you get fearful and then dont do things at all. And that will end at a point, but it hasnt ended at this point. Now fortunately our two biggest businesses are not really tied that way- in insurance and in our utility business we dont feel that, but everything thats consumer related feels it big time.

SG: Do you think that the psyche of the American consumer has changed, becoming more savers than spenders?
WB: Well it certainly has at this point and my guess is that continues for quite a while. What it will be five years from now, I have no idea. I mean the American consumer when theyre confident they spend and theyre not confident now and theyve cut it back but who knows whether.. I doubt that thats a permanent reset of behavior, but I think its more than a one day or one week or one month wonder in that case.


SG: Is that a bad thing?
WB: Well it just depends who the consumer is. I mean consumer debt within reason makes sense. It makes sense to take out a mortgage on a home particularly if you arent buying during a bubble. You are normally going to see house price appreciation if you dont buy during a time when people are all excited about it. So I dont have any moral feelings about debt as to how people should.. I think people should only take on what they can handle though and that gets to their income level


SG: Let me ask it this way, with Americans saving more may be good for consumers, but is that bad for business?
WB: Well its certainly bad for business in the short term. Now whether its better for business over a 10 or 20 year period... if the American public gets itself in better shape financially that presumably is good for business down the road, but while theyre getting themselves in better shape, its not much fun for the merchant on Main street.


SG: One thing that Americans arent buying these days is stocks. Should they be buying?
WB: Well just as many people buy a stock everyday as sell one so there are people buying stocks everyday and were buying stocks as we go along. If theyre buying into a business that they understand at a sensible price they should be buying them. Thats true at any time. There are a lot more things selling at sensible prices now than they were two years ago. So clearly its a better time to buying stocks than a couple of years ago. Is it better than tomorrow? I have no idea.

SG: This financial crisis has been extraordinary in so many ways, how has it changed your approach to investing?
WB: Doesnt change my approach at all. My approach to investing I learned in 1949 or 50 from a book by Ben Graham and its never changed.


SG: So many people I have talked to this past year say this was unprecedented the unthinkable happened. And that hasnt at all impacted your philosophy on this?

WB: No and if I were buying a farm, I wouldnt change my ideas about how to buy a farm or an apartment house or a business and thats all a stock is. Its part of a business so if I were going to buy stock in a private business here in Omaha, Id look at it just like I would have looked at it two years ago and Ill look at it the same way two years from now. I look at how much I am getting for my money, how good the management is, how the competitive position of that business compares to others, how durable it is and just fundamental questions. The stock market is... you can forget about that. Any stock I buy I will be happy owning it if they close the stock market for five years tomorrow. In other words I am buying a business. Im not buying a stock. Im buying a little piece of a business, just like I buy a farm. And that doesnt change. And all the newspapers headlines of the world dont change that. It doesnt mean you cant buy it cheaper tomorrow. It may turn out that way. But the real question is did I get my moneys worth when I bought it?


SG: One of your famous investing principals is, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. So is this the time to be greedy, right?
WB: Yeah. My greed quotient has risen as stocks have gone down. Theres no question about that. The cheaper something gets that youre going to buy, the happier you feel, right? Youre going to buy groceries the rest of your life; you want grocery prices to go up or down? You want them to go down. And if they go down you dont think gee I got all those groceries sitting in my cabinet at home and Ive lost money on those. You think I am buying my groceries cheaper, I am going to keep buying groceries. Now if youre a seller, obviously prices are higher. But most people listening to this program, certainly I, myself, and Berkshire Hathaway, were going to be buying businesses over time. We like the idea of businesses getting cheaper.


SG: So where do you see the opportunities in the stock market right now?
WB: That one I wouldnt tell you about.


SG: Let me throw out some sectors and you just tell me quickly how you feel about these sectors.
WB: Susie, I am not going to recommend anything


SG: Even in general, for example a lot of people now are looking at infrastructure companies, is that a sector that you find attractive?
WB: I wouldnt have any comment. What they ought to do is look at businesses they understand. Theyd be happy owning for years if there was never a quote on the stock. Just like they buy in privately into a business in their hometown... They ought to forget all about what somebody says is going to be hot next year or the year after, whatever because whats going to be hot you may be paying twice as much for as something thats not going to be hot. You dont want to think in terms of whats going to be good next year, you want to think of whats a good business to be in and then buy it at an attractive price. And then you cant lose.

SG: Do you see more opportunities in the U.S. compared to overseas?
WB: Well I am more familiar with the U.S. We have such a big market. I see lots of opportunities here and I see lots of opportunities around the world.


SG: Investor confidence was so shattered last year, what do you think its going to take to restore confidence?
WB: If people were dependent on the stock market going up to be confident theyre in the wrong business. They ought to be confident because they look at a business and think I got my moneys worth. They ought to be confident if they buy a farm, not on whether they get a quote the next day on the farm, but they ought to look at what the farm produces, how many bushels an acre do they get out of their corn or soybeans and what prices do they bring. So they ought to look to-the business as to whether to be confident compared to the price that they paid and they ought to forget about what anybody is saying, including me on television, or what theyre reading in the paper. Thats got nothing to do with whether they made a good decision or not. Whats got to do with whether they made a good decision, what kind of business they bought and what they paid for it.


SG: People are reeling from this whole Bernie Madoff scandal. What would you say to people who have lost trust in the financial system?
WB: They shouldnt have lost... you dont need to lose trust in the American system. If you decide to buy a farm and you pay the right price for it, you dont need to lose faith in American agriculture you know because the prices of farms go down


SG: But you know what Im saying. People lost money last year in companies that they thought were rock solid. As I said the unthinkable happened and then on top of it, this whole Bernie Madoff scandal. It has undermined peoples sense of well being about our system. So what do you say to people who have lost trust?
WB: Well they may be better off not being in equities. If theyre really depending on somebody else and they dont know anything about the somebody else, theyve got a problem. They shouldnt do that. I mean there are going to be crooks out there and this guy was a crook on a scale that weve never seen before. But you ought to know who youre dealing with. But if youre going to buy a stock in some business thats been around for a 100 years and will be around for 100 more years and its not a leveraged company and it sells some important product and its got a strong competitive position and you buy it at a reasonable multiple of earnings, you dont have to worry about crooks, youre going to do fine.


SG: Is there any take away lessons from the Bernie Madoff story?
WB: Well he was a special case. I mean here is a guy who had a good reputation for 30 years or something, and the trust of a lot of people around him. So its very easy to draw assurances from the fact that if fifty other people that are prominent and intelligent trust the guy, that maybe you should trust him too. But I wouldnt put my trust in a single individual like that. I would put my trust in a very good business. I would want a business that was so good that if a social guy was running it, it would still certainly do well and there are plenty of businesses that are like that.


SG: So are you saying that investing has gotten so complicated that investors should stick to what they know? Is that the take-away lesson?
WB: You should always stick to what you know. I say the know-nothing investor and theres nothing wrong with being a know-nothing investor. I spend 60 hours a week, thinking about investments and most people have got jobs and other things to do. They can buy index funds. And theyre not going to do better then an index fund if they go around and trust some guy whos promising them very high returns. If you buy a cross section of American business and you dont buy it during a period when everybody is all enthused about stock, youre going to do fine over 10 or 20 years. If you buy something with the idea that youre going to do fine over 10 months, you may or may not. I do not know what stock is going be up 10 months from now, and I never will.


SG: What about Berkshire Hathaway stock? Were you surprised that it took such a hit last year, given that Berkshire shareholders are such buy and hold investors?
WB: Well most of them are. But in the end our price is figured relative to everything else so the whole stock market goes down 50 percent we ought to go down a lot because you can buy other things cheaper. Ive had three times in my lifetime since I took over Berkshire when Berkshire stocks gone down 50 percent. In 1974 it went from $90 to $40. Did I feel badly? No I loved it! I bought more stock. So I dont judge how Berkshire is doing by its market price, I judge it by how our businesses are doing.


SG: Is there a price at which you would buy back shares of Berkshire? $85,000? $80,000?
WB: I wouldnt name a number. If I ever name a number Ill name it publicly. I mean if we ever get to the point where were contemplating doing it, I would make a public announcement.

SG: But would you ever be interested in buying back shares?
WB: I think if your stock is undervalued, significantly undervalued, management should look at that as an alternative to every other activity. That used to be the way people bought back stocks, but in recent years, companies have bought back stocks at high prices. Theyve done it because they like supporting the stock

SG: What are your feelings with Berkshire. The stock is down a lot. It was up to $147 thousand last year. Would you ever be opposed to buying back stock?
WB: Im not opposed to buying back stock.

SG: Everyone wants to know your plans. What youre going to do with all of Berkshire Hathaways cash, some 30 billion dollars? Is this now the right time to do a big acquisition?
WB: Well weve spent a lot of money in the last 4 months. We spent $5 billion on Goldman Sachs, $3 billion on GE, $6.6 billion on Wrigley, weve got $3 billion committed on Dow. Weve spent a lot of money. Weve got money left, but I love spending money. Cash makes me very unhappy. I like to always have enough and never way more than enough, but I always want to have enough. So we would never go below $10 billion of cash at Berkshire. Were in the insurance business - we got a lot of things. Were never going to depend on the kindness of strangers. But anything excess in that, I love the idea of buying things and the cheaper they get the better I like it.

SG: Youve been talking about doing a big acquisition for a while now, what are you waiting for?
WB: Well weve spent $20 billion dollars... that might not be.


SG: I mean in terms of a company
WB: Well well wait for the right deal. We had a deal to buy Constellation for roughly $5 billion and then events with the French coming in meant we didnt do it. But I was delighted to commit to that $5 billion dollars for Constellation Energy. And it could happen tomorrow. That one happened on a Tuesday afternoon I mean it happened like that. Constellation was in big trouble and we flew back that day, talked to the people at MidAmerican that Tuesday and made them an offer that night.


SG: It seems that youre pretty optimistic about the long term future of the American economy and stock market, but a little pessimistic about the short term... is that a fair assessment of where your head is right now?
WB: I am unquestionably optimistic about the long term. Im more than a little pessimistic about the short term, but that doesnt mean I am pessimistic about the stock market. We bought stocks today. If you tell me the economy is going to be terrible for 12 months, pick a number, and then if I find something that is attractive today, I am going to buy it today. I am not going to wait and hope that it sells cheaper 6 months from now. Because who knows when stocks will hit a low or a high? Nobody knows that. All you know is whether youre getting enough for your money or not.


SG: As you know its the 30th anniversary of Nightly Business Report. As you look back on the past three decades, what would you say is the most important lesson that youve learned about investing?
WB: Well Ive learned my lessons before that. I read a book what is it, almost 60 years ago roughly, called The Intelligent Investor and I really learned all I needed to know about investing from that book, in particular chapters 8 and 20 so I havent changed anything since.

SG: Graham and Dodd?
WB: Well that was Ben Grahams book The Intelligent Investor. Graham and Dodd goes back even before that which was important, very important. But you know you dont change your philosophy assuming you think have a sound one and I picked up I didnt figure it out myself, I learned it from Ben Graham, but I got a framework for investing that I put in place back in 1950 roughly and that framework is the framework I use now. I see different ways to apply it from time to time but that is the framework.


SG: Can you describe what it is? I mean what is your most important investment lesson?
WB: The most important investment lesson is to look at a stock as a piece of business not just some thing that jiggles up and down or that people recommend or people talk about earnings being up next quarter, something like that, but to look at it as a business and evaluate it as a business. If you dont know enough to evaluate it as a business you dont know enough to buy it. And if you do know enough to evaluate it as a business and its selling cheap, you buy it and dont worry about what its doing next week, next month or next year.

SG: So if we asked for your investment advice back in 1979 back when Nightly Business Report first got started, would it be any different than what you would say today?
WB: Not at all. If youd ask the same questions, youve gotten the same answers.


SG: Thank you so much Mr. Buffett Thank you so much, always a pleasure talking to you.
WB: Thank you, been a real pleasure.