Satyam worth now ?

In possibly the biggest single day fall for a stock, Satyam Computer Services lost 77 per cent to end at Rs 40.25 on NSE. The stock’s woes began in December after the company’s promoters made a $1.6-billion bid for Maytas Properties and Maytas Infrastructure promoted by Chairman B. Ramalinga Raju's son.

However, adverse market reaction, which saw the company’s ADR take a knock of 54.5% to $5.70, made the company call off the proposed acquisition. At the time, Chairman Raju evinced surprise saying he was “surprised by the market reaction to this decision even though we were quite positive about
the merits of the acquisition.”

Raju, in fact, today (Jan 7, 2009) took the stock market and the business community by surprise, after he tendered his resignation and admitted in a letter to the board that Satyam’s balance sheet was cash and bank balances as on Sep 30, 2008 was inflated to the extent of Rs 5,040 crore (as against Rs 5,361 reflected in the books).

Further, Satyam’s balance sheet carries an accrued interest of Rs 376 crore which is non-existent, an understated liability of Rs 1,230 crore on account of funds arranged by Raju, and an over stated debtors position of Rs 490 crore (against Rs 2,651 crore in the books)


The letter goes on to state that Satyam reported a revenue of Rs 2,700 crore and an operating margin of Rs 649 crore (24% of revenues) for the second quarter ended Sep 30, 2008, as against the actual revenues of Rs 2,112 crore and actual OPM of Rs 61 crore (3% of revenues). This resulted in artificial cash and bank balances going up by Rs 588 crore in the second quarter alone.

If one goes by the actual revenue and OPM figures, taking others as true, Satyam would have posted a loss instead of the reported profit after tax of Rs 537 crore for the September quarter. If one deducts the financial expenses and depreciation/amortization from the actual OPM of Rs 61 crore, it gives you a loss of Rs 5.87 crore, which translates to a negative EPS of Rs 0.08.

Investment bank CLSA has said that the value of Satyam stock in current conditions is about Rs 25-30. However, some analysts feel the stock is worthless as the scale of fraud is not yet known.

“The real value of the company can’t be determined at this point of time as what other figures are inflated should be known.I don’t expect anybody will be interested acquiring the company. Hence, it is better one should exit or stay away,” said Ramesh Kumar, senior analyst at Global One.

In October of 2008, Satyam saw a high of Rs 325 and a low of Rs 220 and its market capitalization was Rs 20,534 crore. The MCap eroded significantly to Rs 11,465 crore by end December after Satyam announced the twin Maytas acquisition
.

“It is one of the worst days for Indian investors. It has shaken investor confidence--both domestic and global. The biggest dent that this Satyam episode could create is the ‘trust’ of investors towards companies, auditors, and reported numbers by companies,” said Hitesh Agrawal- Head -Research -Angel Broking.

“We have discontinued coverage on the stock with immediate effect and would advise current investors to exit the stock and nonexistent investors to stay away,” he added.

via Economic Times