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Saturday, November 22, 2008

How to get out of the squeeze


Will the world come to a spectacular and disastrous financial end? Credit markets across the globe, which were flush with liquidity not too long ago, are in a limbo as inter-bank borrowing stands frozen after a series of prominent write-downs, insolvencies and collapses.

Suddenly, it's clear that everyone and everything is connected. This connection is due to the frictionless flow of capital across the globe. But while a crisis in leading economies can spill over to the rest of the world, the bubble itself cannot be attributed to this 'connectedness'. What the bubble truly needed to 'inflate' beyond all expectations was the age-old artificial booster of purchasing power: leverage. And it is this leverage that lies at the root of most of the evils that threaten to disrupt the global financial system.

In many ways, India presented the globally leveraged punters with a near-perfect investment story. Here was a nation of a billion people. A nation that was always brimming with talent but had somehow not managed to find its place in the sun. A cheap and seemingly unlimited supply of talented labour, a huge hinterland and mega-cities hungry for the creation of physical and digital infrastructure. A consuming class larger than the population of the United States.