Bullion metals turn further pale

Firm dollar post interest rate cuts in Europe pressure bullion metals

Bullion metals ended lower today, Thursday, 06 November, 2008. Gold prices dropped as dollar firmed up today and also as investors once again began cautious about the weakness in the economy. Silver prices also dropped today.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Losses in equity markets had also forced traders to sell gold. Since past couple of weeks, precious metals, mainly gold, had dropped as traders tried to gain back some of the money that had lost in other markets.

On Thursday, Comex Gold for December delivery fell $10.2 (1.4%) to close at $732.2 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier rose to a high of $761. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (29.7%) since then. Last week, gold prices ended lower by 1.6%. For the month of October, gold ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.

This year, gold prices have lost 11.9% till date. The dollar index has gained 10.6% this year. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for December delivery rose by 38 cents (3.8%) to $10.055 an ounce. Last week, silver fell 1.9%. For the month of October, silver slipped by 20%. Till date, silver has lost 32% this year. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, a lower dollar pushes up precious metal prices as their demand lessens as it becomes cheaper for traders holding other currencies.

At the currency market today, the dollar gained as much as 1.6% against a weighted basket of six major currencies after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank slashed benchmark interest rates to stimulate slumping economies. The Bank of England took drastic action earlier Thursday, slashing its key interest rate to 3% from 4.5% previously. The European Central Bank, which sets monetary policy for the 15-nation euro zone, and the Swiss National Bank also moved to cut rates by smaller amounts.

Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the latest move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 1% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in eight steps.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for December delivery closed lower by Rs 181 (1.5%) at Rs 11,559 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 11,778 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 11,471per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for December delivery closed Rs 232 (1.4%) higher at Rs 17,165/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 16,931/kg and rose to a high of Rs 17,249/Kg during the day’s trading.