Market may be range bound

The market may remain range bound with negative bias tracking subdued trend in Asian stocks. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and China were down by between 0.02% to 1.28%.

Short covering by traders following improved industrial production data for April 2008 triggered a strong intra-day rebound on the bourses yesterday, 12 June 2008. The barometer index BSE Sensex gained 64.88 points or 0.43% to settle at 15,250.20, bouncing back from an intra-day 437.33-points fall.

The market’s concerns are that higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs and hit bottom line of corporates. Banks are likely to raise interest following a strong signal from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that banks' cost of funds is headed north when the central bank raised repo rate, a short term rate, by 25 basis points on Wednesday, 11 June 2008. The repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends money to banks under its liquidity adjustment facility.

The stock market’s another concern is that high interest rates may delay expansion plans of corporates which in turn may impact future earnings growth. The market will now be guessing RBI’s next move. The next quarterly monetary policy review of RBI is scheduled on 29 July 2008.

The asset-liability committee of State Bank of India (SBI), India’s largest commercial, will be reviewing interest rates today following the latest RBI move. HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh said on Thursday, 12 June 2008, HDFC will take a decision on raising interest rates on home loans by end of this month. He said there was upward pressure on interest rates

A surge in global commodity prices led by crude oil spooked stocks across the globe in the past few days. In India, foreign funds have pressed heavy sales. FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 5321.50 crore in the first few days of this month, till 11 June 2008. They had dumped stocks worth a net Rs 5011.50 crore in May 2008. Their outflow in calendar 2008 reached Rs 20690.90 crore, till 11 June 2008. There has been heavy buying by domestic funds led by insurance firms in the past few days, but that has failed to stop the slide on the bourses.

India’s economic growth has slowed down as fall in consumer demand caused by rise in interest rates. Industrial output rose 8.1% in 2007/08 (April-March) compared with 11.6% growth in 2006/07.

According to a report on the Indian economy made at the beginning of this month by Morgan Stanley, weak consumption growth and slowing business investment will slow India’s gross domestic growth (GDP) growth to 6.7% in the quarter ending March 2009 from 8.8% growth in the quarter ended March 2008. It, however, states that, on a long-term basis, an interplay of three key macro factors viz. favourable demographics, continuation of economic reform process by the government, and globalization, justify a gradual speeding up in India’s pace of growth.

According to a recent monthly June 2008 strategy report by HSBC Global Research, a possibility of Left parties withdrawing support to the government at the centre over the fuel price hike issue, cannot be ruled out. In such an environment with prospects of mid-term polls, the stock market is likely to remain nervous, HSBC says. Parliamentary elections are due in India in May 2009. The Union government on Wednesday, 4 June 2008, raised retail petrol and diesel prices by about 10%, more than expected, to help curb losses at its state-owned refiners arising from surging global crude oil prices.

A near term trigger for the market will be corporate advance tax payments for the first installment which falls due on 15 June 2008. The income tax law requires a company to 15% the estimated tax liability for the year as advance tax in the first installment. The advance tax payment by the corporate sector will give a cue on Q1 June 2008 results.

The government will today unveil inflation data for the year through 31 May 2008. Inflation based on the whole price index had climbed to 8.24% in year through 24 May 2008, the highest reading in nearly four years.