Market may edge higher on Sebi reprieve on margins for institutional investors

The market may edge higher after the market regulator Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Thursday, 22 May 2008, said it has kept in abeyance a decision to impose upfront margins for institutional trades in the cash market. Sebi had earlier said that institutional investors will be required to pay upfront margins from 16 June 2008. In the light of difficulties expressed by the market participants regarding implementation of upfront margining of institutional trades in the cash market, it has been decided to keep the same in abeyance, Sebi said in a circular issued to stock exchanges.

US stocks rose modestly on Thursday, 22 May 2008, after two days of steep declines as energy prices pulled back from record highs and a proposed acquisition in the utilities sector buoyed optimism. The Dow rose 24.43 points, or 0.19% to close at 12,625.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 3.64 points, or 0.26%, to 1,394.35, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 16.31 points, or 0.67%, at 2,464.58.

Data on India’s inflation for the year through 10 May 2008 will be released by the government at 12:00 IST today. Inflation had surged 7.83% in the year through 3 May 2008, its highest level more than three years. Analysts will also be watching the revision of the provisional inflation rate of 6.68% for the year through 15 March 2008, after sharp upward revisions to previous provisional readings. The upward revision in inflation rate for the week ended 8 March 2008, to 7.78% from the provisional 5.92%, had come as a rude shock to marketmen.

According to retail brokerage Sharekhan, the steep upward revision in inflation rate is a cause for concern, as prices of many commodities have not been updated for varied periods. Moreover, a sharp fall in the rupee against the dollar in the past few days has heightened concerns about inflation. This is because the fall in rupee will raise cost of imports which in turn will result in further rise in inflation

A rise in retail fuel price, if any, will also raise the inflation rate further. RBI often says pass-through of high global oil prices is incomplete in India, complicating policy making. The government has not allowed oil firms to raise retail fuel prices despite a surge in crude oil prices in the past few weeks. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday, 22 May 2008, denied reports that the government planned to raise retail fuel prices in the wake of a surge in global crude oil prices. Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of India said inflation was unacceptable and pointed out that official data underestimated actual rate of inflation.

Earnings downgrade amid rising input and interest costs, high inflation and drying up of global liquidity due to credit crisis remain major concern for the Indian stock market. In a bid to rein in inflation, the Reserve Bank of India, on Tuesday, 29 April 2008, raised cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points to 8.25%, to suck out excess liquidity in the banking system, in its annual monetary policy review.

With parliamentary elections scheduled next year (May 2009), the government may leave no stone unturned in its attempt to tame inflation. This is bad news for commodity scrips such as cement and steel. Cement maker ACC said earlier this months that its margins will be hurt by a decision to hold its prices for 2 to 3 months that was taken after the government asked cement firms to help contain price pressures. The government recently imposed export tax on basmati rice and some steel products, and cut import duties on key inputs like ferro alloys and metallurgical coke. The government had earlier banned export of cement and non-basmati rice. On 7 May 2008, the government ordered suspension in futures trading in channa, refined soyoil, potato and rubber for four months.

Meanwhile, as per a recent study by CLSA, large amount of foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) issued by Indian companies are coming up for redemption in the next 18-24 months. After recent stock market volatility many FCCBs are at risk of not converting i.e. if the stock market remains subdued, it will stop the bond holders from opting for an equity conversion as it will be easier for them to buy the stock from the open market instead of paying the agreed premium.

When the FCCBs come for redemption, some of these companies may have to take on more debt to redeem the FCCB, thereby raising interest outgo. In the event FCCBs don't get converted, companies have the option to lower the conversion price in line with the market, leading to higher equity dilution. If companies decide to issue fresh FCCBs to finance redemption of FCCBs, it will be at lower premium than earlier.

With the rupee tumbling against the dollar in the last few days, the government may ease restrictions on overseas corporate borrowing when it, together with the RBI, reviews the external commercial borrowing (ECB) policy later this month, reports suggest. Last year, the government had imposed restrictions on ECBs in a bid to check in surge in rupee against the dollar. There are many Indian corporates who will eagerly seek cheap overseas funds if the RBI re-opens the ECB tap, analysts reckon.

The structural growth drivers of the Indian economy remain intact – India’s economy is expected to witness a decent-to-strong growth for a long period of time due to favourable demographics. Acceleration in infrastructure creation will be another driver of strong growth in India’s economy. A CLSA report says India’s infrastructure development is set to accelerate, backed by greater private sector participation and improved finances of government and public sector enterprises. Rating agency Crisil in its outlook for Indian economy for the year through March 2009 has stated that the overall growth scenario is expected to remain strong with investment as the main driver.

Given the continued inflow to unit linked insurance plans (Ulips) and equity linked savings schemes (ELSS) of mutual funds, stock-specific buying will continue depending on fundamentals of individual stocks. Insurance firms are now a major player in the Indian stock market given the huge mop up in Ulips in recent years. It was buying support from domestic funds which had aided the recent recovery on the bourses.