Weekly Close: Trouble in shortened week..

Downtrend continued to intensify during the week. Holiday shortened week as market will remain closed for 2 days on eve of Id and Good Friday. Week start of with big slide as indices slipped over 900 odd points. Bear sterns hit due to subprime mortgage which brought in some levels of concerns in Indian Markets. Second day witnessed a mixed trend with no trigger but indices ralied but tumbled to close flat. Advance tax payments for the final quarter have risen by 110% compared to last year, which indcates a good earnings from these Corporates. As fed cut the interest rate, markets across rejoiced as Asian ended in green. Indian indices opened strong but normally investors tend to book profits over weekends to avoid risks so preferred to book profit. The sentiments also remained weak and kept funds out of the market.

Yesterday, Fed cut the interest rate by 75 bps and gave the boost across the globe. The Fed also cut discount rate by 25 bps early this week. The efforts to save economy continues..but it will take time to bear fruits. The worries have now started extending to other parts of the world like Europe and Japan. We don't see condition improving in near term.

Left and UPA met to discuss on nuke deal..but outcome was zero. Both parties continue to maintain their stand. Left is unlikely to soften there stand and Congress would try to push the deal in full force as it has improved its image among mass through Budget 2008-09.

Sensex lost 4.5% while the Nifty lost 3.3% for the week. Small cap lost -10.5%, Midcap -8.5%. Gains were led by Ambuja +2.25%, Bharti +2.96%, Cipla +1.1%, Reddy +1%, Unilever +0.07%, Satyam +2.46%, Tata Mot +1.9%, TCS +0.65% and Wipro 1+.56%. Loss were extended by Hindalco -14.5%, ICICI -11%, Tata Power -10.8%, Tata Steel -11%, Reliance -7.2%, RPL -6.75%,. Other loser were BPCL -8%, Glaxo -9.5%, Grasim -8.8%, Hero -8.2%, HPCL -6%, HDFC -9.6%, REL - 6.9%, SBI -6.4% STER -7% Unitech -4.7%.

IT counter bounced..We believe that it was dead cat bounce. Fundamentally, things have not improved. Financial sector is US is bleeding and this is one of major client for Indian IT cos. Bear and Stearns (B&S) bail out by Fed actually shocked the global markets. B&S is one of the client for Satyam and TCS. Thought IT counter is bottomed out..Caution is advised.

Indian banks are not left out of the subprime woes. ICICI and SBI are said to have large exposure to forex uncertainties. This may continue to weigh on the Banks counter. Clarity on farm loan waiver has given some ease but no relief for now. With inching inflation probability of interest easing seems bleak in short term.

Our research: Spice Jet most affordable low-fare airline reported healthy numbers for the last quarter. Topline has almost doubled to Rs 408crore while at the EBIDTA level witnessed loss of around Rs 17.4 Crs which was mainly on the back of higher crude price (above USD 90-100/barrel) weighed negatively on the airlines profitability Capacity growth in the industry has also showed slower growth in the quarter which implies a cautious approach. Spice reported PAT was Rs 9.34 Cr in which includes profits from sale of Aircrafts. Valuations appears to be fine now but Crude weight on it however, we believe that this is one stock to have in the airline Industry if at all. Do have a look at our detailed research note.

A strong run up for the overseas markets, helped Sensex finished the day with 1%. Although, the day ended with gains, markets finished the day near the lows of the days trading range and that is not exactly a sign of strength. Both Sensex and Nifty are below their multi year trendline and charts are not yet suggesting any reversal in the trend. The immediate major resistance for the Sensex is placed at the gap area of 15800 and until markets close above this level with volumes, any bounce could remain just an oversold bounce. Support for the sensex exist at 14700 and below that downtrend can continue to 14100 levels