Weekly Close: Now Economic data ditches the Bull..

Investors once again faced an extremely volatile and lacklustred week. Sensex continues to lose momentum in line with global markets. Super Power US has once again proved that if it sneezes all across will catch the cold. Fed has once again pumped $200 bn to save the economy. But time will only tell how much deep the credit crises are. For now lets not jump on conclusion. Investor across the globe have lost confidence and now market is the facing crises of confidences. Foreign institutions have sellers for long. Market may take its own time to reverse the direction.

Sensex -1.1%, Nifty -0.3%, Mid cap -1.4%, Small cap -3.7%. Some counters which gained were Oil and gas +4%, Consumer Durables +4.6%. Losses were extended by IT index -6%, Wipro -11%, Metal -4%, Power -0.5%,.

Globally things are getting worse. However, today S&P gave some indication that credit market worse is over. Crude is getting dearer and that is adding to inflation across the globe. The surge is speculative and now it is becoming a bubble. But if this bubble burst things may get easy across the globe.

Economy: As expected inflation numbers were high. Inflation stood at 5.11% led by high primary articles and fuel prices. Given the supply side pressure .. there seems no sign for inflation of ease.

IIP was a really surprising. The growth stood at 5.2% vs 11.4% last year. And market did react to this negatively. Capital goods and Consumer Durable goods were major hit. It is said that the intense winter led to slowdown in production activity. We believe that this slowdown may not be a prolong one.

Politics: Next week would be major event as UPA would meet on Nuke deal..Very important event to be watched out for. If congress flags the green signal to the deal then we would see elections soon. Market always tends to be weak ahead of elections.

Saregama India Ltd (Saregama), a part of RPG group, is one of the leading music recording company in India. The dynamics of the Industry has changed over the time. The increased competition has forced the industry to lower the prices for audio and video CD's. But now the scenario is set to change with increasing mobile penetration and large numbers of radio channels set to be launched. Do read out note to get the full fledge idea here.

Simplex Infrastructure Ltd (SIL) is a construction company and provides integrated engineering, procurement and construction services for civil & structural construction and infrastructure sector projects. The company is positioned as mini L&T. The key strength is piling this helps to get large orders that certainly keeps growth of the company. The Foray into Multi level Car park is another exciting business to be watched out. There is something more exciting about Simplex..Do read our note for the same.

Transport Corporation of India (TCI) recent Q3 numbers were in inline with the expectations. Top Line witnessed normal growth of 11% to Rs 309 Cr on yoy basis because 3 ships out of 5 were on dry docking in the shipping division which impacted top line growth. However transport, XPS, and supply chain divisions continued to perform well with revenue growth. Ebidta margins were also down followed by higher interest costs impacting the profitability of the company. TCI intends to expand its infrastructure to maintain its competitive advantage. It has lined up a Capex plan of Rs 440 crore over the next two - three years. Valuations are not certainly cheaper at this price. Do have a look on our research note to know more in detail.

Technically Speaking: Sensex has broken the weekly support line at 16050 and closed lower. Yet we could see a doji been formed, which is likely to hold the fall which started from the peak. The correction might now happen timewise and move into sideways movement. Support levels for next week are at 15300 and 15030. Resistance is expected at 16100 and 16800 levels.