Precious metals give up some gains

Gold and silver prices drop as sellers take to profit booking

Precious metal prices fell today, Thursday, 6 March, 2008, a day after gold and silver prices touched all time new highs. The fall in prices today was mainly due to profit taking. Prices fell even as crude oil price closed above $105/barrel. Silver prices also fell substantially today.

Comex Gold for April delivery fell $11.4 (1.2%) to close at $977.1 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had touched a record $995.2/ounce during intra day trading yesterday. This year, gold prices have gained 17% till date. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. For February, it gained 6%. Last week, gold gained $27 (2.8%).

Comex Silver futures for May delivery fell by 56 cents (2.7%) to $20.225 an ounce. Silver has gained 31% in 2008. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%. In February, it gained another 15%.

The dollar has been dampened since last year, more since start of FY 2008 after interest rates were cut twice in January, 2008. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, suffers from dollar strength. On the contrary, gold prices rise with falling dollar as inflationary concerns boosts the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge.

Since the past few days, the bullion metal prices have been on a roll after the Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke hinted that Fed in all possibility will go for another soft landing in its next meeting thereby reducing interest rates by another 50 bps to avoid the US economy in all ways from slipping into a recession. With this, the dollar had slumped sharply against its rival currencies.

The Fed has cut the federal funds rate to 3% this year from 5.25% in mid-September, 2007. January 2008 itself saw two rate cuts in a gap of ten days.

In the energy market today, crude-oil futures closed at almost $106/barrel after Energy Department reported an unexpected drop in crude inventories yesterday. The dropping dollar also surged up crude prices.

In the currency market today, the dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against other major currencies, dropped 0.7% to 72.96.

Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. On the other hand strong dollar reduces the appeal of the metal as alternate source of investment.

Gold witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. The Fed reduced federal funds rate three times in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for April delivery closed lower by Rs 149 (1.1%) at Rs 12,619 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 12,835 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 12,520 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for May delivery closed Rs 667 (2.5%) lower at Rs 25,500/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 26,580/kg and fell to a low of Rs 25,500/Kg during the day’s trading.