Ceat, ABB, Neyveli Lignite, Unitech

ABB
Research: Merrill Lynch
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,103

Merrill lynch has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on ABB. The company has stated that its strategy of expanding products, capacities and markets should continue to deliver strong growth, despite volatile commodity markets. The management has said that India’s plan to add 78 gigawatts (gw) of new generation capacity, related investment in transmission and distribution (T&D) and industrial capital expenditure (capex), especially in the metals & mining and infrastructure space, are picking up. ABB’s order book, at Rs 5,000 crore — up 49% year-on-year (YoY) — support its growth strategy.

The company has won key orders such as robotics from Tata Motors, Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation’s (KPTCL) supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) order and transformer/traction motor order from Bombardier for the Delhi Metro. ABB is spending $100 million over ’08-09 on capex (factories) and launching new products — wind generators for exports. The structural drivers of ABB are India’s plans to expand its national power transmission grid, with inter-regional grid capacity of ~37.2 gw (14.1 gw in FY07) and industrial capex focused on higher automation.

The adoption of ultra high voltage direct current (HVDC) lines by FY09E is a significant opportunity for a world leader like ABB. Further, the downstream opportunity lies in medium voltage and engaging in cross-selling across businesses to focused verticals such as metal, water and special economic zone (SEZ), which comprise around 10% of its sales.

Neyveli Lignite
Research: Indiabulls Financials
Rating: Hold
CMP: Rs 110

Indiabulls has reiterated its ‘hold’ rating on Neyveli Lignite Corporation (NLC). However, any decline in the share price from the current level will be a good buying opportunity. As on March 14, ’08, NLC inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Northern Coalfields to set up a 1,000-mw pit-head power station worth Rs 5,200 crore at Gorbi mines in the Singrauli coal fields. Moving ahead with regard to its capacity expansion plans, NLC is also holding talks with Mahanadi Coalfields (MCL) to set up a 2,000-mw pit-head power unit at Vasundhara mines in the IB Valley coalfields.

With the increased energy deficit in NCL’s customer states, demand risks for the company are minimal. Moreover, NCL draws sustainable competitive advantage from its competitive capital cost, low variable cost of generation, and easily available lignite. However, lignite being a low-grade coal suffers from the disadvantage of lower plant load factor (PLF), thus resulting in reduced generation. To overcome these disadvantages and to improve PLF, the company is foraying into coal-based power plants, with the first one in Tuticorin of 1,000 mw, expected to be commissioned by FY10-12.


Unitech
Research: CLSA
Rating: Outperform
CMP: Rs 267

Unitech’s plans to raise $1bn+ have been delayed due to adverse market conditions. Hence, CLSA has cut the company’s FY10 consolidated volume estimates by 15% as Unitech will have moderate growth plans. A potential private equity for Mumbai business expansion can be a positive trigger in the near term.

Taking into account the potential demand-supply issues and aggressive pricing strategy adopted by certain industry players, CLSA has reduced base residential price assumptions by 5-10% and has assumed a 10% correction in office/retail rentals over FY08-FY10. In the residential segment, 79% of projects are valued at Rs 3,000/square foot or less. CLSA has also raised the cap rate assumptions by 100-200 bps, driven by the rise in Singapore real estate investment trust (REIT) yields. With this, CLSA has set a 9% cap rate for office and 10% for retail.

Based on the above changes in assumptions and cap rate, Unitech’s forward net asset value (NAV) comes off by 15% to Rs 365/share. Sensitivity analysis shows that if rentals and price assumptions are lowered by another 10%, the NAV will come down to Rs 304/share — 10% higher than the current stock price.

Opto Circuits India
Research: Networth Stock Broking
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 326

Networth Stock Broking has recommended a ‘buy’ rating on the stock with one-year price target of Rs 429 — an appreciation of 30% from the current level. Opto Circuits operates in a niche area of manufacturing healthcare equipment in India.

It is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of medical electronic devices and monitoring products that employ sensing and detection techniques. Its product portfolio comprises sensors, probes, pulse oxymeters, patient monitoring systems and digital thermometers.

Following the acquisition of Eurocor in FY06, Opto has successfully launched its bare-metal and drug eluding stents with focus on the Asian and European markets. It recently launched Dior, a unique drug eluding catheter, which can be used in the treatment of coronary in-stent restenosis and small diameter coronary artery lesions.

Eurocor is the only company in the world to have obtained a CE certification for its drug eluting balloon catheters. Opto’s net sales and profits are expected to witness a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42% and 41% from FY08E to FY10E. At the current market price of Rs 330, the stock trades at 23.6x and 16.9x its FY08E and FY09E diluted earnings, respectively.


Ceat
Research: Edelweiss
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 97

Edelweiss maintains a ‘buy’ recommendation on Ceat. The company sold 6.92 acres of the 31-acre land at its Bhandup plant for Rs 130 crore, valuing the property at Rs ~18.8 crore/acre. Of the total consideration, Rs 120 crore will be received by the company in Q4 FY08E and the balance in FY09E. The current sale will not impact the company’s production.

Over the next 24-30 months, the company intends to shift capacity from Bhandup to a new facility at Ambernath or Patalganga, after which, the balance 24 acres will be sold. Great plans to increase capacity by 40 tonnes per day (tpd) at the new facility from the existing 240 tpd at the Bhandup plant. It also plans to set up a radial tyre facility at a cost of Rs 500 crore over the next 36 months. The company plans to incur a capex of Rs 200 crore each for FY09E and FY10E, which will be funded through land sale and internal accruals.

With increased focus on outsourcing, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) volumes are set to increase. Given strong demand from the replacement market, Edelweiss has a positive outlook on Ceat. At current market price of Rs 115, the stock is trading at 5x FY08E (core) EPS of Rs 22.9 and 3.5x FY09E EPS of Rs 32.6