Stoop and you'll be stepped on; stand tall and you'll be shot at.
A swinging day lies in store and bulls and bears may know not what to do. After having been at the receiving end of the bear onslaught for the past several days, the bulls fought back on Friday and followed that up with another stellar performance on Monday. What is heartening about the advance is that the rally was more broad based. Volumes too picked up. Also, FIIs were net buyers, albeit only marginally while local funds continued their buying spree. The big question on everybody's minds is whether the bulls can sustain this momentum and take the key indices to previous lifetime peak or anywhere near it?
Today, we expect a flat to lower opening on the back of the overnight losses in US shares and some weakness in Asian markets. Intra-day gyrations are here to stay. Be careful while buying into these spurts if you cannot hold on to your position for long. As always, long-term investors need not worry as yet.
Given the uncertainty over the US economy and its global ramifications, one should still be a little bit cautious. A few days gains can easily be wiped out if Wall Street goes through another bad day. But, that's still conjecture. The best way to tackle the current volatility is to take each day as it comes rather than try and look too much ahead.
The long-term India story remains intact, but whether we can completely decouple from the world is debatable. In any case, we seem to have two different stories going on - one is the India growth story and one is the India market story. One has to be able to distinguish between the two to protect one's investments against wild fluctuations in the stock market.
Most Asian markets are trading down this morning. The Nikkei in Tokyo was down 171 points at 13,688 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dropped 471 points to 24,560. The Kospi in Seoul was flat at 1688 while the Straits Times in Singapore fell by 32 points to 3044 and the Shanghai Composite in China shed 91 points to 4580.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1% to 146.80 at 11:16 a.m. in Tokyo, halting a three-day, 5% rally that lifted the benchmark yesterday to the highest since Jan. 15. The S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 1.2% in Australia, where the central bank is expected to raise interest rates to an 11-year high today. Benchmarks retreated in all other markets open for trading. Taiwan is closed for a holiday.
US stocks slumped on Monday, following last week's big rally, as investors considered analyst downgrades of the financial sector and the looming threat of a recession. Technology shares gave back some of their strong gains on Friday. Concerns that consumer spending will slow also dragged down retailers.
Analysts told investors to sell American Express, Wells Fargo and Wachovia Corp. on concern that a recession will worsen defaults among consumers. American Express slumped after UBS said US unemployment will rise, reducing profits. Wells Fargo and Wachovia, the fourth- and fifth-largest US banks, dropped the most in seven years after Merrill Lynch said loan losses may increase.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 14.6 points, or 1.1%, to 1,380.82 after rallying 4.9% last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 108.03 points, or 0.9%, to 12,635.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 30.51 points, or 1.3%, to 2,382.85.
Market breadth was negative. Almost seven stocks declined for every four that advanced on the New York Stock Exchange.
Treasury prices slumped, raising the corresponding yields. The dollar was mixed versus other major currencies. US light crude oil for March delivery rose $1.06 to settle at $90.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for April delivery fell $4.10 to $909.40 an ounce.
In economic news, the December factory orders index rose more than expected. Orders rose 2.3%, the government reported, topping forecasts for a rise of 2%. Orders rose 1.7% in November. However, the report did little to alleviate concerns about the economic slowdown following surprisingly weak jobs report.
After the close, News Corp. reported higher quarterly earnings that met estimates. Tuesday's lone economic report is the ISM's January reading on the services sector of the economy.
European stocks closed slightly higher. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.2% at 329.13, with industrials in the lead amid a mix of analyst moves, earnings and bargain hunting.
Of national indexes, the German DAX 30 index ended 0.5% higher at 7,000.49, the French CAC-40 index dipped 0.1% to 4,973.64 and the UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.1% at 6,026.20.
Among the emerging markets, the RTS index in Russia climbed 2.2% to 2012 while the ISE National-30 index in Turkey jumped 2.9% to 57,329. Markets in Brazil and Mexico were shut for holidays.
Can bulls pull off hat-trick?
Bulls started off the week in style as markets ended the day in positive territory. Firm cues from the Asian markets coupled with strong buying momentum in the index pivotals lifted the BSE benchmark Sensex to a high of 18,895.
However, key indices faced stiff resistance as profit booking dragged the markets to a low of 18,439 in mid-afternoon session. But bulls made a strong come back led by gains in the heavyweights like Rcom, RIL, Infosys and SBI.
Finally, the 30-share Sensex closed at 18,660, gaining 417 points or 2.2%. The NSE Nifty gained 146 points to close at 5,463.
Yes Bank gained 1.6% to Rs257 after the Board of Directors of the company announced that it would meet on February 15 to mull raising capital via QIP of 2 cr shares. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs270 and a low of Rs255 and recorded volumes of over 11,00,000 shares on NSE.
Simplex Infra ended on a flat note at Rs628. The company announced that it won order worth Rs2.87bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs686 and a low of Rs621 and recorded volumes of over 56,000 shares on NSE.
Parsvnath gained by over 6.5% to Rs287 after the company announced that it entered into an agreement with ITC to manage 50 hotels. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs291 and a low of Rs275 and recorded volumes of over 25,00,000 shares on NSE.
Rcom rallied by over 12% to Rs686 after media reports stated that the company filed share sale documents for its unit. REL Infratel would offer 8.9 cr shares via IPO. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs699 and a low of Rs624 and recorded volumes of over 95,00,000 shares on NSE.
Prithvi Info advanced 6.8% to Rs327 after the company declared that it won Rs3bn order from BSNL. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs333 and a low of Rs310 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on NSE.
Gujarat Ambuja gained by over 4% to Rs124 after the company announced its January sales rose 4% to 1.55mn tons. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs125 and a low of Rs119 and recorded volumes of over 6,00,000 shares on NSE.
Hindustan Dorr-Oliver gained 2.2% to Rs148 after the company declared that it secured Rs820mn order. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs160 and a low of Rs144 and recorded volumes of over 13,000 shares on NSE.
Videocon Industries edged higher by 0.3% to Rs439 following reports that the company is planning to diversify into power generation. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs459 and a low of Rs430 and recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.
Hindustan Oil Exploration surged by over 4% to Rs103. Reports stated that the company had no plans to delist the company from Indian bourses. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs108 and a low of Rs101 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on NSE.
Elecon Engineering spurred by over 9% to Rs219 after the company announced that it secured order worth Rs110mn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs224 and a low of Rs205 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.
IOB advanced by over 8.5% to Rs182 following reports that the company set a revenue target of Rs100bn from its overseas expansion, slated to take place over the next year. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs186 and a low of Rs171 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on NSE.
For tomorrow, bulls may look to continue its momentum at least in the early trades’. However, markets may cool off later in the day as profit booking at higher levels cannot be ruled out. Also cues from the equity markets from across the globe would be tracked closely for direction.
FIIs were net buyers of Rs1.64bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday. Domestic Institutions were also net buyers of Rs7.32bn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net buyers of Rs20.13bn.
News Snippets:
The decks have finally been cleared for the likes of Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications to provide IPTV services. (FE)
Reliance Industries and GMDC are planning to set up a JV to undertake lignite gasification in Gujarat and Rajasthan. (BL)
ICICI Bank will share its home loan business with its 100% subsidiary, ICICI Home Finance Co. The bank plans to finance home loans only up to Rs2mn while home loans above Rs2mn would be provided by IHFC. (BS)
ONGC is planning to invite bids for its second wind power project in Karnataka. It will invest nearly Rs6bn in the first phase of its wind energy foray for generating nearly 15,000 mw of power. (BS)
Rashtriya Ispat Nigam has sought the acquisition of the Bird Group of companies, including Orissa Mining Development Corporation, to secure iron ore reserves. (BS)
Tata Steel has lost its bid to buy the rights to iron ore reserves in Liberia to Johannesburg-based Delta. (ET)
The Supreme Court has cancelled Jindal Steel’s proposed JV with the Industrial Development Corporation of Orissa for the exploration of chromium deposits. (DNA)
GVK Power plans to set up a thermal power plant at Talwandi Sabo (1,800 mw) and another coal-based power plant near Rajpura (1,200 mw). (BS)
GVK Power plans to bid for airport projects in Europe and USA. (Mint)
Hindustan Unilever plans to sell shrimps business in Kerala. (DNA)
The TDSAT has stayed an order passed by TRAI asking telecom operator Tata Teleservices to refund the excess amount collected from customers. (BS)
Tata Teleservices and Virgin Group are aiming to launch Virgin Mobile in the first week of March. (Mint)
Essar Shipping is raising ~US$1bn through a mix of equity and quasi-equity instruments. (ET)
Reliance Communications to offer lifetime connection for Rs199 against current charges of Rs649. (ET)
KEC International has formed a 50:50 JV with US-based Power Engineers and floated a new firm called KEC Power. (ET)
Voltas is likely to bag a large overseas order worth Rs6-8bn. (DNA)
MRF’s Tiruvottiyur factory, which has been shut for a month now over a productivity dispute, will be reopened on Tuesday. (BS)
SEL Manufacturing Company has decided to foray into technical textiles and plans to invest Rs6.5bn in the project. (BS)
Page Industries plans to expand its manufacturing capacity by 30% to produce 74mn pieces per annum vs 57mn pieces. (BS)
Hindustan Copper has raised the provisional prices for February by 6.73% with immediate effect. (BS)
Lok Housing has proposed to issue 5mn convertible warrants on a preferential basis to three promoter entities at a conversion price of Rs354 per share. (BL)
Bank of Rajasthan has hiked interest rate on term deposits of some maturities. (BL)
Ceat will finalize its plans on setting up a greenfield truck-bus radial facility this month. The company has also increased prices. (BL)
Jindal Saw expects its infrastructure, transportation and fabrication (ITF) subsidiary to contribute around 50% of the company’s top line by 2012. (BL)
Koutons Retail India plans to foray into China by the end of this year. (BL)
Sasken Communication may buy Nokia’s R&D unit in Germany. (BL)
Cambridge Technology Solutions is evaluating two more potential candidates based in the US and expects to close one of them in February. (BL)
The Shyam Group of Industries plans to set up an integrated steel and power plant at Jamuria near Asansol in West Bengal for around Rs99bn. (BL)
Plethico Pharma is pursuing three acquisitions in the over the-counter and functional food space overseas. (DNA)
Wanbury has picked up a minority stake in Bravo Healthcare. (DNA)
Eni UK to make open offer for 20% in HOEC. (ET)
Yes Bank is planning to raise up to Rs7bn through issuance of two crore fresh equity shares. (ET)
Emaar MGF is planning to spin off its hospitality business. (ET)
GM is likely to up its stake in its Chinese venture SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co. to take on Nano. (ET)
Cable operators get I&B Ministry’s nod for IPTV. (ET)
Price of more than 7,000 drugs classified as ‘essential medicines’ is likely to fall post-Budget . (ET)
Budgetary support likely to jump 17%; railways, urban infrastructure and power may see cut in share. (ET)
One year extension of credit subvention is likely for leather, textile, marine and handicrafts sector, 2% export sop may stay. (ET)
Real estate developers constructing energy efficient buildings may get tax breaks. (ET)
Economic Front Page:
Indian tea production is likely to rise by 4.25% to ~980mn kg in 2008. (ET)
IRDA has changed the definition of infrastructure sector to align it with that of the RBI. This will lead to insurance funds flowing to the infrastructure space. (BS)
The global coffee production in the crop year 2006-07 increased by 14% to 125mn bags. (BS)
A decline in acreage and a spurt in global prices have pushed up edible oil rates by 10% in the last one month. (BS)
Over 81% of the overall planned private investments of US$104bn by India Inc in Q3 FY08 have gone into core, physical and service infrastructure. (BL)
The Government is likely to allow the float of sovereign debt paper to investors in overseas markets. (FE)
Japan Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC) has showed interest in giving development assistance loan to hydro-power projects in India. (FE)
Preparing for the goods and services tax regime from 2010, the government is likely to leave excise duty rates untouched in the budget. (FE)