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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

A blind man Bluff..


See Saw trading for the market with srong start across the global markets. Asian indices showed some strength, this helped Indian indices to open in green. But, Sensex lost its gained and traded volatile till the end. All the sectors closed in red while Banking and Oil & gas sector remainedon the positive side. Markets which have been driven by the US recession news, led by Fed cut, Reliance Power IPO are clueless at present. Indices seem to be news driven at moment. No action has been noticed as the volume have drastically dropped. Investors have lost faith in the IPO's after the Reliance Power IPO failed to deliver. Few of the New IPO's which were scheduled for this week like SVEC Construction which withdrew its IPO today. a few days back Wochardt and Emaar MGF withdrew their IPO due to voaltile market condition. Asian ended in green and Europe's trading in green.

Sensex closed down by 23 points at 16608.01.Weighing on the Sensex were losses in TCS (864.8,-4 percent), Rel Energy (1535.75,-3 percent), Hero Honda (671.1,-3 percent), ACC (718.25,-3 percent) and RCVL (575.7,-2 percent). Losses were restricted by gains in ICICI Bk (1063.75,+3 percent), RIL (2324.14,+2 percent), Ranbaxy (370.25,+1 percent), Bharti Tele (855.8,+1 percent) and SBI (2057.39,+1 percent).

ognizant has the highest exposure to US (82%) and BFSI sector (47%) among all top tier Indian IT vendors. Due to its business mix, Cognizant is highly exposed to the slowdown in the US market. But it managed to give good results and lived upto the expectation. Why cannot the Indian Companies?. We are still cautious here.. There is no change in business environment. But, still the markets talks of good results from the IT side for the next few quarters. IT companies have been increasing their revenue intakes from the Europe geography as compared to the US. But, the markets globally have a different view to this as one can see the impact of the suprime not only in US but also globally.

Industrial production for the month December grew by 7.6% as compared to 13.4% last year same month. Cumulative growth during Apr-Dec was 9.0% v/s 11.2% last year. Slow growth in manufacturing, mining and electricity sectors has pushed down Industrial Growth. DecemberIndustrial grwoth was dragged by Manufacturing sector decelarated 8.4% from 14.5% last year. The mining and electricity sectors, too, performed poorly during the month recording growth rates of 3% and 3.8%, respectively, when compared with 6.1% and 9.1%, respectively, in December 2006.

Fundementally: Sectorally the revenue growth has been slowed down. Ecomomy seems to braking. We see np positive trigger.

Technically Speaking Sensex traded in a ranged of 400 points before ending lmarginally lower. Sensex has formed an 'Inside day'. Inside days are usually days of indecision and when they show up on charts after a large swing, it is an indication that market players are evaluating the recent move. Nifty and Sensex have continued to stay under their respective 200DMA and this is a sign of weakness.